Impacts of the Wenchuan Earthquake on the Giant Panda Nature Reserves in China

Ministry of Science and Technology of China [2008BAK47B02, 2008BAC44B04, 2008BAK50B06, 2008BAC43B01, 2006BAC08B06]

Analysis of the population capacity in the reconstruction areas of 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

National Key Technology R&D Program of China [2008BAK50B05]; Chinese Academy of Sciences [KZCX-YW-Q06, KZCX2-YW-Q03-06]

汶川8级地震前加卸载响应比的大尺度异常

孕震初期加卸载响应比(LURR)通常在1左右涨落,然后逐渐上升至峰值点。但强地震并不在峰值点上发生,而要滞后一段时间(T2)。T2与震级有关,震级越大,T2越长。对于8级地震,T2的计算值为28±8个月,汶川8级地震实际的T2是23个月。对于大地震,T2很长,峰值点后LURR通常迅速下降,在大地震前夕LURR常常降得很低,而预测的地震又迟迟没有发生,这种情况下很容易误导人们怀疑,甚至放弃原来的预测,殊不知,这时大地震正在迫近。这正是汶川8级地震给予人们血的教训。大地震不仅孕育时间长,孕震区面积也很大。大地震的前兆在时空上都是大尺度。基于这种认识,根据LURR的演化,中国大陆西南地区可能正在孕育一个特大地震。

Characteristic rainfall for warning of debris flows

A characteristic rainfall is introduced to overcome the difficulties encountered in determining a critical rainfall value for triggering debris flow. The characteristic value is defined as the rainfall at which debris-flow occurrence probability shows a rapid increase, and can be used as a warning rainfall threshold for debris flows. Investigation of recorded debris flows and 24-hour rainfall data at Jiangjia basin, Yunnan Province, in southwestern China, demonstrates the existence of such a characteristic rainfall. It was found that the characteristic rainfall corresponds to the daily rainfall of 90% cumulative probability by analyzing the basin's daily rainfall histogram. The result provides a simple and useful method for estimating a debris-flow warning rainfall threshold from the daily rainfall distribution. It was applied to estimate the debris-flow warning rainfall threshold for the Subaohe basin, a watershed in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake zone with many physical characteristics similar to those of the Jiangjia basin.

地震P-S波时差耦合作用的斜坡崩滑效应研究

China locates between the circum-Pacific and the Mediterranean-Himalayan seismic belt. The seismic activities in our country are very frequent and so are the collapses and slides of slope triggered by earthquakes. Many collapses and slides of slope take place mainly in the west of China with many earthquakes and mountains, especially in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces. When a strong earthquake happening, the damage especially in mountains area caused by geological hazards it triggered such as rock collapses, landslides and debris flows is heavier than that it caused directly. A conclusion which the number of lives lost caused by geological hazards triggered by a strong earthquake in mountains area often accounts for a half even more of the total one induced by the strong earthquake can be made by consulting the statistical loss of several representative earthquakes. As a result, geological hazards such as collapses and slides of slope triggered by strong earthquakes attract wide attention for their great costs. Based on field geological investigation, engineering geological exploration and material data analysis, chief conclusions have been drawn after systematic research on formation mechanism, key inducing factors, dynamic characteristics of geological hazards such as collapses and slides of slope triggered by strong earthquakes by means of engineering geomechanics comprehensive analysis, finite difference numerical simulation test, in-lab dynamic triaxial shear test of rock, discrete element numerical simulation. Based on research on a great number of collapses and landslides triggered by Wenchuan and Xiaonanhai Earthquake, two-set methods, i.e. the method for original topography recovering based on factors such as lithology and elevation comparing and the method for reconstructing collapsing and sliding process of slope based on characteristics of seism tectonic zone, structural fissure, diameter spatial distribution of slope debris mass, propagation direction and mechanical property of seismic wave, have been gotten. What is more, types, formation mechanism and dynamic characteristics of collapses and slides of slope induced by strong earthquakes are discussed comprehensively. Firstly, collapsed and slided accumulative mass is in a state of heavily even more broken. Secondly, dynamic process of slope collapsing and sliding consists of almost four stages, i.e. broken, thrown, crushed and river blocked. Thirdly, classified according to failure forms, there are usually four types which are made up of collapsing, land sliding, land sliding-debris flowing and vibrating liquefaction. Finally, as for key inducing factors in slope collapsing and sliding, they often include characteristics of seism tectonic belts, structure and construction of rock mass, terrain and physiognomy, weathering degree of rock mass and mechanical functions of seismic waves. Based on microscopic study on initial fracturing of slope caused by seismic effect, combined with two change trends which include ratio of vertical vs. horizontal peak ground acceleration corresponding to epicentral distance and enlarging effect of peak ground acceleration along slope, key inducing factor of initial slope fracturing in various area with different epicentral distance is obtained. In near-field area, i.e. epicentral distance being less than 30 km, tensile strength of rock mass is a key intrinsic factor inducing initial fracturing of slope undergoing seismic effect whereas shear strength of rock mass is the one when epicentral distance is more than 30 km. In the latter circumstance, research by means of finite difference numerical simulation test and in-lab dynamic triaxial shear test of rock shows that initial fracture begins always in the place of slope shoulder. The fact that fracture strain and shear strength which are proportional to buried depth of rock mass in the place of slope shoulder are less than other place and peak ground acceleration is enlarged in the place causes prior failure at slope shoulder. Key extrinsic factors inducing dynamic fracture of slope at different distances to epicenter have been obtained through discrete element numerical simulation on the total process of collapsing and sliding of slope triggered by Wenchuan Earthquake. Research shows that combined action of P and S seismic waves is the key factor inducing collapsing and sliding of slope at a distance less than 64 km to initial epicenter along earthquake-triggering structure. What is more, vertical tensile action of P seismic wave plays a leading role near epicenter, whereas vertical shear action of S seismic wave plays a leading role gradually with epicentral distance increasing in this range. On the other hand, single action of P seismic wave becomes the key factor inducing collapsing and sliding of slope at a distance between 64 km and 216 km to initial epicenter. Horizontal tensile action of P seismic wave becomes the key factor gradually from combined action between vertical and horizontal tensile action of P seismic wave with epicentral distance increasing in this distance range. In addition, initial failure triggered by strong earthquakes begins almost in the place of slope shoulder. However, initial failure beginning from toe of slope relates probably with gradient and rock occurrence. Finally, starting time of initial failure in slope increases usually with epicentral distance. It is perhaps that the starting time increasing is a result of attenuating of seismic wave from epicenter along earthquake-triggering structure. It is of great theoretical and practical significance for us to construct towns and infrastructure in fragile geological environment along seism tectonic belts and conduct risk management on earthquake-triggered geological hazards by referring to above conclusions.

特大地震激发地球自由振荡的数值模拟研究

Large earthquakes, such as the Chile earthquake in 1960 and the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on Dec 26, 2004 in Indonesia, have generated the Earth’s free oscillations. The eigenfrequencies of the Earth’s free oscillations are closely related to the Earth’s internal structures. The conventional methods, which mainly focus on calculating the eigenfrequecies by analytical ways, and the analysis on observations can not easily study the whole processes from earthquake occurrence to the Earth’s free oscillation inspired. Therefore, we try to use numerical method incorporated with large-scale parallel computing to study on the Earth’s free oscillations excited by giant earthquakes. We first give a review of researches and developments of the Earth’s free oscillation, and basical theories under spherical coordinate system. We then give a review of the numerical simulation of seismic wave propagation and basical theories of spectral element method to simulate global seismic wave propagation. As a first step to study the Earth’s free oscillations, we use a finite element method to simulate the propagation of elastic waves and the generation of oscillations of the chime bell of Marquis Yi of Zeng, by striking different parts of the bell, which possesses the oval crosssection. The bronze chime bells of Marquis Yi of Zeng are precious cultural relics of China. The bells have a two-tone acoustic characteristic, i.e., striking different parts of the bell generates different tones. By analysis of the vibration in the bell and the spectrum analysis, we further help the understanding of the mechanism of two-tone acoustic characteristics of the chime bell of Marquis Yi of Zeng. The preliminary calculations have clearly shown that two different modes of oscillation can be generated by striking different parts of the bell, and indicate that finite element numerical simulation of the processes of wave propagation and two-tone generation of the chime bell of Marquis Yi of Zeng is feasible. These analyses provide a new quantitative and visual way to explain the mystery of the two-tone acoustic characteristics. The method suggested by this study can be applied to simulate free oscillations excited by great earthquakes with complex Earth structure. Taking into account of such large-scale structure of the Earth, small-scale low-precision numerical simulation can not simply meet the requirement. The increasing capacity in high-performance parallel computing and progress on fully numerical solutions for seismic wave fields in realistic three-dimensional spherical models, Spectral element method and high-performance parallel computing were incorporated to simulate the seismic wave propagation processes in the Earth’s interior, without the effects of the Earth’s gravitational potential. The numerical simulation shows that, the results of the toroidal modes of our calculation agree well with the theoretical values, although the accuracy of our results is much limited, the calculated peaks are little distorted due to three-dimensional effects. There exist much great differences between our calculated values of spheroidal modes and theoretical values, because we don’t consider the effect the Earth’ gravitation in numerical model, which leads our values are smaller than the theoretical values. When , is much smaller, the effect of the Earth’s gravitation make the periods of spheroidal modes become shorter. However, we now can not consider effects of the Earth’s gravitational potential into the numerical model to simulate the spheroidal oscillations, but those results still demonstrate that, the numerical simulation of the Earth’s free oscillation is very feasible. We make the numerical simulation on processes of the Earth’s free oscillations under spherically symmetric Earth model using different special source mechanisms. The results quantitatively show that Earth’s free oscillations excited by different earthquakes are different, and oscillations at different locations are different for free oscillation excited by the same earthquake. We also explore how the Earth’s medium attenuation will take effects on the Earth’s free oscillations, and take comparisons with the observations. The medium attenuation can make influences on the Earth’s free oscillations, though the effects on lower-frequency fundamental oscillations are weak. At last, taking 2008 Wenchuan earthquake for example, we employ spectral element method incorporated with large-scale parallel computing technology to investigate the characteristics of seismic wave propagation excited by Wenchuan earthquake. We calculate synthetic seismograms with one-point source model and three-point source model respectively. Full 3-D visualization of the numerical results displays the profile of the seismic wave propagation with respect to time. The three-point source, which was proposed by the latest investigations through field observation and reverse estimation, can better demonstrate the spatial and temporal characteristics of the source rupture processes than one-point source. Primary results show that those synthetic signals calculated from three-point source agree well with the observations. This can further reveal that the source rupturing process of Wenchuan earthquake is a multi-rupture process, which is composed by at least three or more stages of rupture processes. In conclusion, the numerical simulation can not only solve some problems concluding the Earth’s ellipticity and anisotropy, which can be easily solved by conventional methods, but also finally solve the problems concluding topography model and lateral heterogeneity. We will try to find a way to fully implement self-gravitation in spectral element method in future, and do our best to continue researching the Earth’s free oscillations using the numerical simulations to see how the Earth’ lateral heterogeneous will affect the Earth’s free oscillations. These will make it possible to bring modal spectral data increasingly to bear on furthering our understanding of the Earth’s three-dimensional structure.

汶川地震后青少年创伤后应激障碍症状及其相关因素研究

The present paper studies focus on the symptoms of the post-traumatic stress disorder in adolescents post-disaster. 482 students from 6 secondary schools and 17 primary schools in the extremely severe disaster areas in Mianzhu, Sichuan province and 785 students from 3 primary schools and 9 secondary schools in the severe disaster areas in Baoji, Shaanxi respectively were surveyed on the symptoms of the post-traumatic stress disorder and the extent of disaster exposure after the Wenchuan earthquake. Self-compiled background information questionnaire and CRIES were used for the investigation. In this study, we contrast the extent of disaster exposure in the two areas in order to explore the related factors about the post-traumatic stress disorder in adolescent post-disaster. The main results of this paper can be summarized as follows： 1. There are significant positive corrections between the post-traumatic stress disorder and the extent of disaster exposure(get trapped in the earthquake、relatives and friends have been injured in the earthquake、look at relatives and friends dying in the earthquake).The more exposed in the disaster, the more serious symptom of the post-traumatic stress disorder. The trauma exposure indicators (get trapped in the earthquake, relatives and friends have been injured in the earthquake、look at relatives and friends dying in the earthquake)were all significant predictors for PTSD severity. 2. There are significant sex difference in the extent（F=8.750, p <0.05） and the incidence rate of PTSD（χ =20.735, df=5,p =0.001）, the extent and the incidence rate of girls in Mianzhu is significantly higher than that of boys. 3. The age is also an influence factor of PTSD. The extent （F=7.246, p <0.001）and the incidence rate （χ =20.735, df=5,p =0.001）of PTSD get higher as adolescent in Mianzhu get older. 4. As the extremely severe disaster areas, the extent of disaster exposure of Mianzhu areas significantly higher than that of the severe disaster areas Baoji. However, there are not difference in the extent of PTSD between two areas（t=0.181，df=1265,p=0.857）, there are only significant difference in the incidence rate of PTSD between two areas（χ =8.766，df=1,p=0.003）, the incidence rate of PTSD in Mianzhu areas significantly higher than that of Baoji areas.

The Displacement and Strain Field of Three-Dimensional Rheologic Model of Earthquake Preparation

Based on the three-dimensional elastic inclusion model proposed by Dobrovolskii, we developed a rheological inclusion model to study earthquake preparation processes. By using the Corresponding Principle in the theory of rheologic mechanics, we derived the analytic expressions of viscoelastic displacement U(r, t) , V(r, t) and W(r, t), normal strains epsilon(xx) (r, t), epsilon(yy) (r, t) and epsilon(zz) (r, t) and the bulk strain theta (r, t) at an arbitrary point (x, y, z) in three directions of X axis, Y axis and Z axis produced by a three-dimensional inclusion in the semi-infinite rheologic medium defined by the standard linear rheologic model. Subsequent to the spatial-temporal variation of bulk strain being computed on the ground produced by such a spherical rheologic inclusion, interesting results are obtained, suggesting that the bulk strain produced by a hard inclusion change with time according to three stages (alpha, beta, gamma) with different characteristics, similar to that of geodetic deformation observations, but different with the results of a soft inclusion. These theoretical results can be used to explain the characteristics of spatial-temporal evolution, patterns, quadrant-distribution of earthquake precursors, the changeability, spontaneity and complexity of short-term and imminent-term precursors. It offers a theoretical base to build physical models for earthquake precursors and to predict the earthquakes.

Experimental Study of the Earthquake Recurrence Period and the Trend of Post-Seismic Development

In order to study the earthquake recurrence and the characteristics of earthquake series, rupture tests of rock samples and plexiglass samples were made. On rock samples, a number of acoustic emission (AE) and strain measuring points were deployed; the load was one side direct shear. The variation characteristics of AE and strain at different detecting points around the extra large fracture were observed and studied. On plexiglass samples, a series of inclined cracks were prefabricated by a small-scale compressive testing machine. The samples were then loaded on a shockproof platen, when the samples were loaded, the stress intensity factor (SIF) was determined by the laser interferometric technique and shadow optical method of caustics. The fracture conditions such as material toughness around the extra large fracture were also studied. From those experimental results and the theory of fracture mechanics, the earthquake recurrence period and the trend of post-seismic development were studied.

Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Characters of variation of LURR during the earthquake sequence of Xinjiang

The theory of the loading/unloading response ratio (LURR) was applied to the Jiashi earthquake sequence which occurred at the beginning of 1997 in Xinjiang, and found that, before the earthquakes with relatively high magnitudes In the sequence, the ratio showed anomalies of high values. That is to say, the LURR theory can be applied to the short-term earthquake prediction in some cases, especially in the early period after a strong earthquake, such as the forecasts for some strong earthquakes in the Jiashi sequence.

Numerical simulation of rock failure and earthquake process on mesoscopic scale

On the basis of the lattice model of MORA and PLACE, Discrete Element Method, and Molecular Dynamics approach, another kind of numerical model is developed. The model consists of a 2-D set of particles linked by three kinds of interactions and arranged into triangular lattice. After the fracture criterion and rules of changes between linking states are given, the particle positions, velocities and accelerations at every time step are calculated using a finite-difference scheme, and the configuration of particles can be gained step by step. Using this model, realistic fracture simulations of brittle solid (especially under pressure) and simulation of earthquake dynamics are made.