辽宁沿海经济带景观格局动态预测及其生态安全研究

21世纪中国将进入工业化与城市化快速发展阶段，随着经济全球化与竞争国际化，产业集群开始成为经济发展的主流，以临港产业为代表的沿海经济带开发建设已成为发达国家的重要经验和国内沿海省市的主导区域战略，辽宁沿海经济带的开发建设将进一步加大沿海地区与周边地区及内地的资源信息交换，人口的大量流入、城市化进程的加快等都可能对沿海区域的生态环境质量和可持续发展与生态安全产生重要影响。 论文通过3S技术手段，应用转移矩阵、土地利用度量公式、景观空间格局分析和Kappa 指数系列方法对1988～2007 年辽宁沿海经济带的景观变化进行了综合分析，同时应用CLUE-S 模型在有无“辽宁沿海经济带开发建设规划”两个预案下对该区域2008～2020 年的景观变化进行了预测。应用生态足迹理论与方法对研究区1990～2006年的生态足迹与生态承载力进行了分析，以反映研究区可持续发展情况；应用时间序列（ARMA）与支持向量机（SVM）预测了研究区2007～2020年生态足迹与生态承载力变化。并对研究区进行了基于生态足迹的区域生态安全动态分析及预测研究，最后提出了研究区生态安全对策，得到如下主要结论： （1）辽宁沿海经济带在1988～2007年间景观格局变化并不十分显著，景观由少数几种景观类型所控制，各景观类型有不断趋于平均化的趋势，但速度较慢，景观的破碎化程度越来越严重。土地利用度逐步增大，反映在景观变化上，是以建设用地的持续扩张与耕地以及林地、水域面积缩小为特点，其中建设用地在景观类型转换中发挥着越来越重要的作用。主要的景观变化发生在耕地、林地、水域与建设用地之间。 （2）在有无“规划”两种预案下，景观变化的趋势基本一致，但变化幅度有明显差别。两种预案下耕地都趋于减少，但“规划预案”降幅更大一些。建设用地逐渐增加，但“规划预案”扩张更快，面积更多。建筑用地变化情况的不同导致其它景观类型变化的不同。两种预案下景观的破碎化程度均有减小的趋势，斑块形状趋于规则，景观的连通性也在逐年增大，其中在“规划预案”中表现得更为显著。 （3）辽宁沿海经济带从1990～2006年间的人均生态足迹与生态承载力均呈逐渐增大趋势，且生态足迹需求明显大于生态承载力，生态赤字在逐渐增大，研究区内的生态负荷已超过了其生态容量，现有的区域发展模式是不可持续的。其中生态足迹需求增大主要来自能源足迹需求增大，而生态承载力的增加主要是因为水域类面积的增加。17年间研究区的人均万元GDP生态足迹均有不同程度的下降趋势，表明该区域的资源利用效率在逐渐提高。 （4）过去17年来，辽宁沿海经济带的生态压力指数变化趋势为先升后降，区域生态安全经历了生态较安全、稍不安全、较不安全和稍不安全等阶段，表明该区域生态安全正在逐步改善。生态占用指数与生态经济协调指数均呈逐步增大的趋势，表明研究区的社会经济发展程度和人民消费水平正在走向较富裕阶段，该区域社会经济发展与生态环境的协调性也在逐渐改善。 （5）两种预案下，辽宁沿海经济带未来14年的人均生态足迹与人均生态承载力均有逐渐增大的趋势，且人均生态足迹均超过了其人均生态承载力，存在不同程度的生态赤字，发展模式仍将是不可持续的，其中“规划预案”下的发展模式更加不可持续。 （6）两种预案下，研究区未来14年的生态安全均处于稍不安全状态，其中“规划预案”的生态压力更小一些。两种预案下研究区的生态占用指数和生态经济协调指数均有逐年增大的趋势，区域经济均将从较富裕阶段走向很富裕阶段，经济增长与生态环境的协调程度也由较好阶段步入很好阶段。其中“规划预案”下的区域经济增长更快，与生态环境的协调性将更好一些。 （7）三种方案可以降低研究区“规划预案”下的生态压力指数，实现区域的生态安全。其中同时提高研究区的生态承载力，降低生态足迹的方案更为合理可行，既保障了区域安全，又实现了区域的可持续发展目标。 （8）要保障研究区未来14年的生态安全，建议规划增加水域面积，推进区域热电联产，发展清洁能源并推动区域间资源互补共享。

Photosynthetic characteristics of the economic brown seaweed Hizikia fusiforme (Sargassaceae, Phaeophyta), with special reference to its "leaf" and receptacle

Photosynthetic responses to irradiance and temperature of "leaves" and receptacles were compared in February ( vegetative stage) and May ( reproductive stage) in the seaweed, Hizikia fusiforme ( Harvey) Okamura (Sargassaceae, Phaeophyta) from Nanao Island, Shantou, China. Irradiance-saturated photosynthesis (P-max) was significantly higher in receptacles than in "leaves" on a fresh weight basis, and that of "leaves" was greater in May than in February at ambient seawater temperatures. The optimum temperature for P-max was 30 degrees C for both "leaves" and receptacles, being 5 - 10 degrees C higher than the ambient seawater temperature. The apparent photosynthetic efficiencies were greater in receptacles than in "leaves" within the tested temperature range of 10 - 40 degrees C. The irradiance for saturating photosynthesis for both "leaves" and receptacles was temperature-dependent, with the highest values ( about 200 mu mol photons m(-2) s(-1)) at 30 degrees C.

Numerical investigation on a simulation model of floating zone convection

A simulation model with adiabatic condition at the upper rod and constant temperature at the lower rod is studied numerically in this paper. The temperature distribution in a simulation model is closer to the one in the half part of a floating full zone in comparison with the one in a usual floating half zone model with constant temperature at both rods, because the temperature distribution of a floating full zone is symmetric for the middle plane in a microgravity environment. The results of the simulation model show that the temperature profiles and the how patterns are different from those of the usual floating half zone model. Another type of half zone model, with a special non-uniform temperature distribution at the upper rod and constant temperature at the lower rod, has been suggested by recent experiments. The temperature boundary condition of the upper rod has a maximum value in the center and a lower value near the free surface. This modified simulation model is also simulated numerically in the present paper. Copyright (C)1996 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Investigations of cohesive zone properties of the interface between metal film and ceramic substrate at nano- and micro-scales

Cohesive zone characterizations of the interface between metal film and ceramic substrate at micro- and nano-scales are performed in the present research. At the nano-scale, a special potential for special material interface (Ag/MgO) is adopted to investigate the interface separation mechanism by using MD simulation, and stress-separation relationship will be obtained. At the micro-scale, peeling experiment is performed for the Al film/Al2O3 substrate system with an adhesive layer at the interface. Adhesive is a mixture of epoxy and polyimide with mass ratio 1:1, by which a brittle cohesive property is obtained. The relationships between energy release rate, the film thickness and the adhesive layer thickness are measured during the steady-state peeling. The experimental result has a similar trend as modeling result for a weak adhesion interface case.

Floating zone convection

The microgravity research, as a branch of the advanced sciences and a spe- cialized field of high technology, has been made in China since the late 1980's. The research group investigating microgravity fluid physics consisted of our col- leagues and the authors in the Institute of Mechanics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), and we pay special attention to the floating zone convection as our first research priority. Now, the research group has expanded and is a part of the National Microgravity Laboratory of the CAS, and the research fields have been extended to include more subjects related to microgravity science. Howev- er, the floating zone convection is still an important topic that greatly holds our research interests.

Climate change, sea level rise and integrated coastal zone management: An IPCC approach

Expansion of economic activities, urbanisation, increased resource use and population growth are continuously increasing the vulnerability of the coastal zone. This vulnerability is now further raised by the threat of climate change and accelerated sea level rise. The potentially severe impacts force policy-makers to also consider long-term planning for climate change and sea level rise. For reasons of efficiency and effectiveness this long-term planning should be integrated with existing short-term plans, thus creating an Integrated Coastal Zone Management programme. As a starting point for coastal zone management, the assessment of a country's or region's vulnerability to accelerated sea level rise is of utmost importance. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a common methodology for this purpose. Studies carried out according to this Common Methodology have been compared and combined, from which general conclusions on local, regional and global vulnerability have been drawn, the latter in the form of a Global Vulnerability Assessment. In order to address the challenge of coping with climate change and accelerated sea level rise, it is essential to foresee the possible impacts, and to take precautionary action. Because of the long lead times needed for creating the required technical and institutional infrastructures, such action should be taken in the short term. Furthermore, it should be part of a broader coastal zone management and planning context. This will require a holistic view, shared by the different institutional levels that exist, along which different needs and interests should be balanced.

Essential elements of integrated coastal zone management

The coastal zone comprises a narrow strip of coastal lowlands and a vast area of coastal waters. While the coastal zone represents approximately 10% of the earth's surface, its coastal lowlands are inhabited by more than 50% of the world population. The coastal zone has become the major site for extensive and diverse economic activities. Many of the coastal developing countries depend heavily on the scarce coastal resources for their economic growth.

Assessment of coastal zone sustainable development: A case study of Yantai, China

The assessment of sustainable development is a challenging task as its measuring is rather complex without a mature framework. In this paper, as a case study, a coastal city of China-Yantai was assessed for sustainable development in the period from 1998 to 2007. We used a methodological framework based on 36 indicators and three composite indices from the dimensions of environment, economy and society subsystems. The assessment results indicated that Yantai was almost in the potentially unsustainable development or intermediate sustainable development, except in 1998 and in 2007. Accordingly, the progress of sustainable development was divided into two stages in the light of the relative changes of three subsystems. Some relevant issues, such as natural capital, GPI vs. GDP in sustainable development assessment were discussed. Finally, an uncertainty analysis was also given in the assessment. In conclusion, the sustainable development in Yantai had experienced a shift from environment-based to social-economic-based in the past 10 years. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

陡坡带砂砾岩体油气成藏模式研究——以东营凹陷西北部陡坡带为例

Based on the study of sequence stratigraphy, modern sedimentary, basin analysis, and petroleum system in abrupt slop of depression, this paper builds sedimentary system and model, sandy bodies distribution, and pool-forming mechanism of subtle trap. There are some conclusions and views as follows. By a lot of well logging and seismic analysis, the author founded up the sequence stratigraphic of the abrupt slope, systematically illustrated the abrupt slope constructive framework, and pointed out that there was a special characteristics which was that south-north could be divided to several fault block and east-west could be carved up groove and the bridge in studying area. Based all these, the author divided the studying area to 3 fault block zone in which because of the groove became the basement rock channel down which ancient rivers breathed into the lake, the alluvial fan or fan delta were formed. In the paper, the author illustrated the depositional system and depositional model of abrupt slope zone, and distinguished 16 kinds of lithofacies and 3 kinds of depositional systems which were the alluvial fan and fan-delta system, lake system and the turbidite fan or turbidity current deposition. It is first time to expound completely the genetic pattern and distributing rule of the abrupt slope sandy-conglomeratic fan bodies. The abrupt slope sandy-conglomeratic fan bodies distribute around the heaves showing itself circularity shape. In studying area, the sandy-conglomeratic fan bodies mainly distribute up the southern slope of Binxian heave and Chenjiazhuang heave. There mainly are these sandy-conglomeratic fan body colony which distributes at a wide rage including the alluvial fan, sub-water fluvial and the turbidite fan or the other turbidity current deposition in the I fault block of the Wangzhuang area. In the II fault block there are fan-delta front and sub-water fluvial. And in the Binnan area, there mainly are those the alluvial fan (down the basement rock channel) and the sandy-conglomeratic fan body which formed as narrowband sub-water fluvial (the position of bridge of a nose) in the I fault block, the fan-delta front sandy-conglomeratic fan body in the H fault block and the fan-delta front and the turbidity current deposition sandy-conglomeratic fan body in the m fault block. Based on the reservoir outstanding characteristics of complex classic composition and the low texture maturity, the author comparted the reservoir micro-structure of the Sha-III and Sha-IV member to 4 types including the viscous crude cementation type, the pad cementation type, the calcite pore-funds type and the complex filling type, and hereby synthetically evaluated 4 types sandy- conglomeratic fan body reservoir. In the west-north abrupt slope zone of Dongying Depression, the crude oil source is belonging to the Sha-III and Sha-IV member, the deep oil of Lijin oilfield respectively come from the Sha-III and Sha-IV member, which belongs to the autogeny and original deposition type; and the more crude oil producing by Sha-IV member was migrated to the Wangzhuan area and Zhengjia area. The crude oil of Binnan oil-field and Shanjiasi oil-field belongs to mixed genetic. It is the first time to illustrate systematically the genetic of the viscous crude that largely being in the studying area, which are that the dissipation of the light component after pool-forming, the biological gradation action and the bath-oxidation action, these oil accumulation belonging to the secondary viscous crude accumulation. It is also the first time to compart the studying area to 5 pool-forming dynamical system that have the characteristic including the common pressure and abnormal pressure system, the self-fountain and other-fountain system and the closing and half-closing system etc. The 5 dynamical systems reciprocally interconnected via the disappearance or merger of the Ethology and the fluid pressure compartment zone, the fault and the unconformity surface, hereby formed duplicated pattern oil-gas collecting zone. Three oil-gas pool-forming pattern were founded, which included the self-fountain side-direction migrated collecting pattern, the self-fountain side-direction ladder-shape pool-forming pattern and the other-fountain pressure releasing zone migrated collecting pattern. A series of systemic sandy-conglomeratic fan bodies oil-gas predicting theory and method was founded, based on the groove-fan corresponding relation to confirm the favorable aim area, according as the characteristic of seismic-facies to identify qualitatively the sandy-conglomeratic fan bodies or its scale, used the temporal and frequency analysis technique to score the interior structure of the sandy- conglomeratic fan bodies, applied for coherent-data system analysis technology to describe the boundary of the sandy-conglomeratic fan bodies, and utilized the well logging restriction inversion technique to trace quantificational and forecast the sandy-conglomeratic fan bodies. Applied this technique, totally 15 beneficial sandy-conglomeratic fan bodies were predicted, in studying area the exploration was preferably guided, and the larger economic benefit and social benefit was acquired.

砂砾岩储层流动单元四维模型研究

This article is an important part of "95" technological subject of SINOPEC. It has a large number of difficulties and workloads, and has significant theoretical meanings and practical value. The study area is composed of sandstone & conglomerate reservoir of alluvial fan & fan delta, which belong to Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member of lower tertiary of Yong'an Town Oilfield in Dongying Depression. The target stataum develops in the hanging wall of the synsedimentary fault in the scarp zone of Dongying Depression. The frequently intense movements result in the variation of sandstone and conglomerate reservoir and the evolution of the time and space of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member in Yong'an Town Oilfield. As a result, it is difficult for the individual reservoir correlation at the root of fan, which bring about a tackle problem for the exploitation of oilfield. In this background, the research of fluid units will be more difficult. In this article, the new concepts, the new methods, and the new techniques of sedimentology, petroleum geology, reservoir geology, physics of crystal surface, dynamic & static state reservoir description and well logging geology are synthetically applied, and the computer technology are made full uses of, and the identifying, dividing and appraising of the two-formation-type sandstone & conglomerate reservoir fluid units of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member systemically analyzed in Yong'an Town Oilfield, Dongying Depression. For the first time, the single-well model, the section model, the plane model, the nuclear magnetism log model, the microcosmic network model, the 4-D geology model and the simulation model of the two-formation-type reservoir fluid units of the of sandstone & conglomerate reservoir of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member are established, and the formative mechanism and distributing & enrichment laws of oil-gas of the two type of sandstone and conglomerate reservoir fluid units are revealed. This article established the optimizing, identifying, classifying and appraising standard of the two-formation-type reservoir fluid units of the of sandstone and conglomerate reservoir of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member, which settles the substantial foundations for static state model of the fluid units, reveals the macroscopic & microcosmic various laws of geometrical static state of the fluid units, and instructs the oil exploitation. This article established static state model of the two-formation-type sandstone and conglomerate reservoir fluid units by using the multi-subject theories, information and techniques, and reveals the geometrical configuration, special distribution and the oil-gas enrichment laws of the sandstone and conglomerate reservoir fluid units. For the first time, we established the nuclear magnetism log model of the two-formation-type sandstone and conglomerate reservoir of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member, which reveals not only the character and distributing laws of the porosity and permeability, bat also the formation and distribution of the movable fluid. It established six type of microcosmic net model of the two-formation-type sandstone and conglomerate reservoir of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member in the working area by using the advanced theories, such as rock thin section, SEM, image analysis, intrusive mercury, mold, rock C.T. measure & test image etc., which reveals the microcosmic characteristic of porosity & throat, filterate mode and microcosmic oil-gas enrichment laws of the sandstone and conglomerate reservoir. For the first time, it sets up the 4-D model and mathematic model of the sandstone and conglomerate reservoir, which reveals the distributing and evolving laws of macroscopic & microcosmic parameters of the two-formation-type sandstone and conglomerate reservoir and oil-gas in 4-D space. At the same time, it also forecasts the oil-gas distribution and instructs the oilfield exploitation. It established reservoir simulation model, which reveals the filterate character and distributing laws of oil-gas in different porosity & throat net models. This article established the assistant theories and techniques for researching, describing, indicating and forecasting the sandstone and conglomerate reservoir fluid units, and develops the theories and techniques of the land faces faulted basin exploitation geology. In instructing oilfield exploitation, it had won the notable economic & social benefits.