应用SVM预测杜鹃属（Rhododendron L.）在中国的潜在分布中心

杜鹃属(Rhododendron L.)是中国种子植物中最大的属，其现代分布和分化中心是我国西南部的横断山区和东喜马拉雅地区。我国西部、西南部的云南、四川、西藏等地共有杜鹃达450种，仅特有种就有约300种。对杜鹃属分布的深入研究是横断山区生物多样性保护不可缺少的重要部分。 由于物种分布与环境因子之间存在着紧密的联系，利用环境因子作为预测物种分布模型的变量是当前最普遍的建模思路。但是绝大多数物种分布预测模型都遇到了难以解决的“高维小样本”问题――模型在标本数据不足时无法给出合理的预测，或者模型无法处理大量的环境变量。机器学习领域的理论和实践已经证明，基于结构风险最小化原理的支持向量机(Support Vector Machine, SVM)算法非常适合“高维小样本”的分类问题。为了探索其应用在物种分布预测问题上的可能性，本文创新性的实现了基于SVM算法的物种分布预测系统。然后，本文以30个杜鹃属(Rhododendron L.)物种为检验对象，利用其标本数据和11个1km的栅格环境变量图层作为模型变量，预测其在中国的潜在分布区。本文通过全面的模型评估——专家评估，ROC (Receiver Operator Characteristic)曲线和曲线下方面积AUC (Area Under the Curve)——来比较模型的性能。试验结果表明，我们所实现的以SVM为核心的物种分布预测系统无论在计算速度还是预测效果上都远远优于当前广泛使用的GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction)预测系统。 之后，本文进一步探讨了SVM预测系统预测效果与环境变量维数和标本点个数的关系。试验结果表明，对于只有少量标本点的物种SVM的预测结果仍然具有相当的合理性。由此可见， SVM预测系统很好的解决了以前众多模型无法克服的稀有种和标本点稀少的物种的潜在分布区模拟问题。同时本文发现大的环境维数（高维）对于物种潜在分布区的预测有着决定性的作用，因此模型处理高维问题的能力显得至关重要。 最后，我们使用中国所有可获取的杜鹃属标本数据，以及83个1km的栅格环境变量图层，对400种杜鹃属物种的潜在分布区进行预测。根据预测出来的物种潜在分布区，我们得到了中国杜鹃属物种潜在多样性分布格局，特有物种潜在多样性分布格局，濒危杜物种潜在的分布格局，各亚属物种潜在分布格局，以及不同生活型物种潜在多样性分布格局。这些分布区图不仅可以对杜鹃属起源研究提供分析验证的条件，还能为其引种、保护和新种的搜寻提供有利的空间依据。

Complex potentials and singular integral equation for curve crack problem in antiplane elasticity

Four types of the fundamental complex potential in antiplane elasticity are introduced: (a) a point dislocation, (b) a concentrated force, (c) a dislocation doublet and (d) a concentrated force doublet. It is proven that if the axis of the concentrated force doublet is perpendicular to the direction of the dislocation doublet, the relevant complex potentials are equivalent. Using the obtained complex potentials, a singular integral equation for the curve crack problem is introduced. Some particular features of the obtained singular integral equation are discussed, and numerical solutions and examples are given.

Numerical estimate of the stability curve for the flow past a rotating cylinder

It is demonstrated that the primary instability of the wake of a two-dimensional circular cylinder rotating with constant angular velocity can be qualitatively well described by the Landau equation. The coefficients of the Landau equation are determined by means of numerical simulations for the Navier-Stokes equations. The critical Reynolds numbers, which depend on the angular velocity of the cylinder, are evaluated correctly by linear regression. (C) 2004 American Institute of Physics.

落叶栎树在中国的地理替代分布及其气候制约

栎属（Quercus L.）按落叶习性可自然分为落叶类型和常绿类型，我国落叶栎类共有20个种和9个变种。落叶栎是栎属中较为进化的一个类群，源于横断山区和云贵高原;除新疆外，全国各省都有落叶栎的天然分布，一些亲缘关系密切的树种之间呈现出较为明显的地理替代分布格局。本研究的目的在于：（1）应用BIOCLIM模型模拟预测落叶栎类植物的潜在分布区，分析其目前的分布格局以及下一步的发展趋势;（2）分析造成落叶栎树地理替代分布格局的主导气候因子，探讨气候因子对不同落叶栎树种地理分布格局的制约作用。 本文以16个在中国具有成片天然分布区的落叶栎树种（包括变种）为研究对象，利用已核对的标本数据以及13个栅格化环境变量图层（分辨率为1km×1km），按照分类（全国广布型、南方广布型、南方狭域型和北方狭域型）和不分类（全部16种）两种处理方式，通过BIOCLIM模型模拟得出了它们的潜在核心分布区和潜在边缘分布区。在运行模型之前，除必选的海拔高程图层外，采用了主成分分析（PCA）的方法从30个候选的气候变量图层中筛选出对相应落叶栎树种的地理分布格局有较大影响的12个图层作为输入图层。然后，本文通过比较两种处理所得模拟结果的ROC（Receiver Operator Characteristic）曲线下方面积AUC（Area Under the Curve），同时结合文献分析来推测不同落叶栎树种地理分布格局的稳定性及发展趋势。结果表明，在无人类活动干扰且种源传播不受阻碍的情况下，全国广布型和南方广布型落叶栎目前的分布格局在维持稳定的基础上有向周边地区扩展的趋势;南方狭域型和北方狭域型落叶栎的分布格局则基本保持稳定，短期内发生扩散的可能很小。 论文中计算了每个落叶栎树种所在分布范围的气候指标（共11个），以便进行下一步的研究。以蒙古栎（Q. mongolica）、辽东栎（Q. wutaishanica）与槲栎（Q. aliena）、锐齿槲栎（Q. aliena var. acuteserrata）、北京槲栎（Q. aliena var. pekingensis）这两组地理替代系列为研究对象，分别采用独立样本t检验和单因素方差分析的方法，分析了气候因子对其地理替代分布格局的主导作用。结果表明，冬季的低温、较高的气温年较差和大陆度是蒙古栎向东北替代辽东栎的主要原因;槲栎向北被北京槲栎和锐齿槲栎替代的主要原因是生长季高温和冬季高温对其分布的双重制约;除最暖月（7月）最高温外，北京槲栎的各项水热指标与另两种槲栎均存在极显著差异，对冬季低温和较大的年较差的适应可能是限制其向南分布的主要原因。 本研究最后部分的内容是对不同类型落叶栎分布区的气候参数进行的主成分分析。结果表明，生长季温度是制约落叶栎分布的最主要的气候因子;寒冷程度和冬季的低温则对其在大尺度范围的扩散有较大影响;另外，降水、年较差与大陆度对落叶栎的向北分布也起着重要的作用。

Curvature Correction of FWHM in the X-Ray Rocking Curve of Bent Heteroepitaxial Films

A method for accurate determination of the curvature radius of semiconductor thin films is proposed. The curvature-induced broadening of the x-ray rocking curve (XRC) of a heteroepitaxially grown layer can be determined if the dependence of the full width at half maximum (FWHM) of XRC is measured as a function of the width of incident x-ray beam. It is found that the curvature radii of two GaN films grown on a sapphire wafer are different when they are grown under similar MOCVD conditions but have different values of layer thickness. At the same time, the dislocation-induced broadening of XRC and thus the dislocation density of the epitaxial film can be well calculated after the curvature correction.

Environmental Kuznets Curve for SO_2 Emissions in China

This study examines the link between the economic growth and the environmental quality. Based on a panel data set, a N-shaped Environmental Kuzents Curve has been found for the sample period: a cubic relationship between per capita GDP and emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2). We also find that energy consumption is an important determinant of environmental degradation. The empirical results suggest that we should promote environmental protection as soon as possible.

Calculating the equation of state parameters and predicting the spinodal curve of isotactic polypropylene/poly(ethylene-co-octene) blend by molecular dynamics simulations combined with Sanchez-Lacombe lattice fluid theory

Molecular dynamics simulations are adopted to calculate the equation of state characteristic parameters P*, rho*, and T* of isotactic polypropylene (iPP) and poly(ethylene-co-octene) (PEOC), which can be further used in the Sanchez-Lacombe lattice fluid theory (SLLFT) to describe the respective physical properties. The calculated T* is a function of the temperature, which was also found in the literature. To solve this problem, we propose a Boltzmann fitting of the data and obtain T* at the high-temperature limit. With these characteristic parameters, the pressure-volume-temperature (PVT) data of iPP and PEOC are predicted by the SLLFT equation of state. To justify the correctness of our results, we also obtain the PVT data for iPP and PEOC by experiments. Good agreement is found between the two sets of data. By integrating the Euler-Lagrange equation and the Cahn-Hilliard relation, we predict the density profiles and the surface tensions for iPP and PEOC, respectively. Furthermore, a recursive method is proposed to obtain the characteristic interaction energy parameter between iPP and PEOC. This method, which does not require fitting to the experimental phase equilibrium data, suggests an alternative way to predict the phase diagrams that are not easily obtained in experiments.