A probabilistic model for fatigue crack propagation analysis

A simple probabilistic model for predicting crack growth behavior under random loading is presented. In the model, the parameters c and m in the Paris-Erdogan Equation are taken as random variables, and their stochastic characteristic values are obtained through fatigue crack propagation tests on an offshore structural steel under constant amplitude loading. Furthermore, by using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, the fatigue crack propagation life to reach a given crack length is predicted. The tests are conducted to verify the applicability of the theoretical prediction of the fatigue crack propagation.

Probabilistic Modeling of Rosette Formation

英文摘要: Rosetting, or forming a cell aggregate between a single target nucleated cell and a number of red blood cells (RBCs), is a simple assay for cell adhesion-mediated by specific receptor-ligand interaction. For example, rosette formation between sheep RBC and human lymphocytes has been used to differentiate T cells from B cells. Rosetting assay is commonly used to determine the interaction of Fc gamma-receptors (Fc gamma R) expressed on inflammatory cells and IgG-coated on RBCs. Despite its wide use in measuring cell adhesion, the biophysical parameters of rosette formation have not been well characterized. Here we developed a probabilistic model to describe the distribution of rosette sizes, which is Poissonian. The average rosette size is predicted to be proportional to the apparent two-dimensional binding affinity of the interacting receptor-ligand pair and their site densities. The model has been supported by experiments of rosettes mediated by four molecular interactions: Fc gamma RIII interacting with IgG, T cell receptor and coreceptor CD8 interacting with antigen peptide presented by major histocompatibility molecule, P-selectin interacting with P-selectin glycoprotein ligand 1 (PSGL-1), and L-selectin interacting with PSGL-1. The latter two are structurally similar and are different from the former two. Fitting the model to data enabled us to evaluate the apparent effective two-dimensional binding affinity of the interacting molecular pairs: 7.19x10(-5) mu m(4) for Fc gamma RIII-IgG interaction, 4.66x10(-3) mu m(4) for P-selectin-PSGL-1 interaction, and 0.94x10(-3) mu m(4) for L-selectin-PSGL-1 interaction. These results elucidate the biophysical mechanism of rosette formation and enable it to become a semiquantitative assay that relates the rosette size to the effective affinity for receptor-ligand binding.

Forecasting Daily Chlorophyll a Concentration during the Spring Phytoplankton Bloom Period in Xiangxi Bay of the Three-Gorges Reservoir by Means of a Recurrent Artificial Neural Network

A recurrent artificial neural network was used for 0-and 7-days-ahead forecasting of daily spring phytoplankton bloom dynamics in Xiangxi Bay of Three-Gorges Reservoir with meteorological, hydrological, and limnological parameters as input variables. Daily data from the depth of 0.5 m was used to train the model, and data from the depth of 2.0 m was used to validate the calibrated model. The trained model achieved reasonable accuracy in predicting the daily dynamics of chlorophyll a both in 0-and 7-days-ahead forecasting. In 0-day-ahead forecasting, the R-2 values of observed and predicted data were 0.85 for training and 0.89 for validating. In 7-days-ahead forecasting, the R-2 values of training and validating were 0.68 and 0.66, respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicated that most ecological relationships between chlorophyll a and input environmental variables in 0-and 7-days-ahead models were reasonable. In the 0-day model, Secchi depth, water temperature, and dissolved silicate were the most important factors influencing the daily dynamics of chlorophyll a. And in 7-days-ahead predicting model, chlorophyll a was sensitive to most environmental variables except water level, DO, and NH3N.

A non-linear perturbation model considering catchment wetness and its application in river flow forecasting

A non-linear perturbation model for river flow forecasting is developed, based on consideration of catchment wetness using an antecedent precipitation index (API). Catchment seasonality, of the form accounted for in the linear perturbation model (the LPM), and non-linear behaviour both in the runoff generation mechanism and in the flow routing processes are represented by a constrained nan-linear model, the NLPM-API. A total of ten catchments, across a range of climatic conditions and catchment area magnitudes, located in China and in other countries, were selected for testing daily rainfall-runoff forecasting with this model. It was found that the NLPM-API model was significantly more efficient than the original linear perturbation model (the LPM). However, restric tion of explicit nan-linearity to the runoff generation process, in the simpler LPM-API form of the model, did not produce a significantly lower value of the efficiency in flood forecasting, in terms of the model efficiency index R-2. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

achieving on-time delivery: a two-stage probabilistic scheduling strategy for software projects

Chinese Academy of Sciences (ISCAS)

Application of probabilistic neural network in the clinical diagnosis of cancers based on clinical chemistry data

As a recently developed and powerful classification tool, probabilistic neural network was used to distinguish cancer patients from healthy persons according to the levels of nucleosides in human urine. Two datasets (containing 32 and 50 patterns, respectively) were investigated and the total consistency rate obtained was 100% for dataset 1 and 94% for dataset 2. To evaluate the performance of probabilistic neural network, linear discriminant analysis and learning vector quantization network, were also applied to the classification problem. The results showed that the predictive ability of the probabilistic neural network is stronger than the others in this study. Moreover, the recognition rate for dataset 2 can achieve to 100% if combining, these three methods together, which indicated the promising potential of clinical diagnosis by combining different methods. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic modelling of soil moisture dynamics of irrigated cropland in the North China Plain

A probabilistic soil moisture dynamic model is used to estimate the soil moisture probability distribution and plant water stress of irrigated cropland in the North China Plain. Soil moisture and meteorological data during the period of 1998 to 2003 were obtained from an irrigated cropland ecosystem with winter wheat and maize in the North China Plain to test the probabilistic soil moisture dynamic model. Results showed that the model was able to capture the soil moisture dynamics and estimate long-term water balance reasonably well when little soil water deficit existed. The prediction of mean plant water stress during winter wheat and maize growing season quantified the suitability of the wheat-maize rotation to the soil and climate environmental conditions in North China Plain under the impact of irrigation. Under the impact of precipitation fluctuations, there is no significant bimodality of the average soil moisture probability density function.

Deformation Monitoring and Forecasting Model Study Based on Grey System Theory

The grey system theory studies the uncertainty of small sample size problems. This paper using grey system theory in the deformation monitoring field, based on analysis of present grey forecast models, developed the spatial multi-point model. By using residual modification, the spatial multi-point residual model eras developed in further study. Then, combined with the sedimentation data of Xiaolangdi Multipurpose Dam, the results are compared and analyzed, the conclusion has been made and the advantages of the residual spatial multi-point model has been proved.

General expression for probabilistic estimation of multiphase structure invariants in the case of a native protein and multiple derivatives. Application to estimates of the three-phase structure invariants

Concise probabilistic formulae with definite crystallographic implications are obtained from the distribution for eight three-phase structure invariants (3PSIs) in the case of a native protein and a heavy-atom derivative [Hauptman (1982). Acta Cryst. A38, 289-294] and from the distribution for 27 3PSIs in the case of a native and two derivatives [Fortier, Weeks & Hauptman (1984). Acta Cryst. A40, 646-651]. The main results of the probabilistic formulae for the four-phase structure invariants are presented and compared with those for the 3PSIs. The analysis directly leads to a general formula of probabilistic estimation for the n-phase structure invariants in the case of a native and m derivatives. The factors affecting the estimated accuracy of the 3PSIs are examined using the diffraction data from a moderate-sized protein. A method to estimate a set of the large-modulus invariants, each corresponding to one of the eight 3PSIs, that has the largest \Delta\ values and relatively large structure-factor moduli between the native and derivative is suggested, which remarkably improves the accuracy, and thus a phasing procedure making full use of all eight 3PSIs is proposed.

Probabilistic distribution of one-phase structure seminvariants for an isomorphous pair of structures: Theoretical basis and initial applications

Given a special type of triplet of reciprocal-lattice vectors in the monoclinic and orthorhombic systems, there exist eight three-phase structure seminvariants (3PSSs) for a pair of isomorphous structures. The first neighborhood of each of these 3PSSs is defined by the six magnitudes and the joint probability distribution of the corresponding six structure factors is derived according to Hauptman's neighborhood principle. This distribution leads to the conditional probability distribution of each of the 3PSSs, assuming as known the six magnitudes in its first neighborhood. The conditional probability distributions can be directly used to yield the reliable estimates (0 or pi) of the one-phase structure seminvariants (1PSSs) in the favorable case that the variances of the distributions happen to be small [Hauptman (1975). Acta Cryst. A31, 680-687]. The relevant parameters in the formulas for the monoclinic and orthorhombic systems are given in a tabular form. The applications suggest that the method is efficient for estimating the 1PSSs with values of 0 or pi.

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF THE STRUCTURE SEMINVARIANTS IN THE MONOCLINIC AND ORTHORHOMBIC SYSTEMS WHEN ANOMALOUS SCATTERERS ARE PRESENT

The estimate formulas for the two-phase structure seminvariants (TPSSs) in the presence of anomalous scattering are obtained from the estimate of the two-phase structure invariants [Hauptman (1982). Acta Cryst. A38, 632-641; Giacovazzo (1983). Acta Cryst.

A nonlinear model for assessing multiple probabilistic risks: A case study in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve in China

Several methods for estimating the potential impacts caused by multiple probabilistic risks have been suggested. These existing methods mostly rely on the weight sum algorithm to address the need for integrated risk assessment. This paper develops a nonlinear model to perform such an assessment. The joint probability algorithm has been applied to the model development. An application of the developed model in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve, China, combining remote sensing data and a GIS technique, provides a reasonable risk assessment. Based on the case study, we discuss the feasibility of the model. We propose that the model has the potential for use in identifying the regional primary stressor, investigating the most vulnerable habitat, and assessing the integrated impact of multiple stressors. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.