Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Effects of Noise and Detection Error in a Dynamic Adaptive Optics System

It is well known that noise and detection error can affect the performances of an adaptive optics (AO) system. Effects of noise and detection error on the phase compensation effectiveness in a dynamic AO system are investigated by means of a pure numerical simulation in this paper. A theoretical model for numerically simulating effects of noise and detection error in a static AO system and a corresponding computer program were presented in a previous article. A numerical simulation of effects of noise and detection error is combined with our previous numeral simulation of a dynamic AO system in this paper and a corresponding computer program has been compiled. Effects of detection error, readout noise and photon noise are included and investigated by a numerical simulation for finding the preferred working conditions and the best performances in a practical dynamic AO system. An approximate model is presented as well. Under many practical conditions such approximate model is a good alternative to the more accurate one. A simple algorithm which can be used for reducing the effect of noise is presented as well. When signal to noise ratio is very low, such method can be used to improve the performances of a dynamic AO system.

The positive floating potential of high-temperature particles in plasma

It has been predicted that the floating potential of particles in plasma may become positive when the particle surface temperature is high enough, but, to our knowledge, no positive floating potential has been obtained yet. In the present paper the floating potential theory of high-temperature particles in plasma is developed to cover the positive potential range for the first time, and a general approximate analytical formula for the positive floating potential with a thin plasma sheath and subsonic plasma flow is derived from the new model recently proposed by the authors. The results show that when the floating potential is positive, the net flux of charge incident on the particle approaches a constant similar to the 'electron saturation' phenomena in the case of the electric probes.

Non-linear theory of a positive-column in a magnetic-field

A nonlinear theory of an intermediate pressure discharge column in a magnetic field is presented. Motion of the neutral gas is considered. The continuity and momentum transfer equations for charged particles and neutral particles are solved by numerical methods. The main result obtained is that the rotating velocities of ionic gas and neutral gas are approximately equal. Bohm's criterion and potential inversion in the presence of neutral gas motion are also discussed.

Performance analysis of bit error rate for free space optical communication with tip-tilt compensation based on gamma-gamma distribution

In this paper, the gamma-gamma probability distribution is used to model turbulent channels. The bit error rate (BER) performance of free space optical (FSO) communication systems employing on-off keying (OOK) or subcarrier binary phase-shift keying (BPSK) modulation format is derived. A tip-tilt adaptive optics system is also incorporated with a FSO system using the above modulation formats. The tip-tilt compensation can alleviate effects of atmospheric turbulence and thereby improve the BER performance. The improvement is different for different turbulence strengths and modulation formats. In addition, the BER performance of communication systems employing subcarrier BPSK modulation is much better than that of compatible systems employing OOK modulation with or without tip-tilt compensation.

Entanglement purification with higher error threshold for imperfection of local operations and bell state measurements

We analyse further the entanglement purification protocol proposed by Feng et al. (Phys. Lett. A 271 (2000) 44) in the case of imperfect local operations and measurements. It is found that this protocol allows of higher error threshold. Compared with the standard entanglement purification proposed by Bennett et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 76 (1996) 722], it turns out that this protocol is remarkably robust against the influences of imperfect local operations and measurements.

Phase control of switching from positive to negative index material in a four-level atomic system

Electric and magnetic responses of the medium to the probe field are analysed in a four-level loop atomic system by taking into account the relative phase of the applied fields. An interesting phenomenon is found: under suitable conditions, a change of the refractive index from positive to negative can occur by modulating the relative phase of the applied fields. Then the medium can be switched from a positive index material to a negative index material in our scheme. In addition, a negative index material can be realized in different frequency regions by adjusting the relative phase. It may give us a convenient way to obtain the desired material with positive or negative index.

Anomalous behaviour of photorefractive grating erasure owing to existence of both negative and positive carriers

In LiNbO3:Fe, anomalous behaviour of grating erasure is observed with different wavelenghts, i.e. rapid grating erasure in the short wavelength range, which deviates from the results predicted by the electron transport band model. The deviation is related to the coexistance of electrons and holes in photorefraction, and charge-transfer process including electrons and hole has been proposed. The electron and hole contributions to photo-excitation coefficient S of the Fe centre on the wavelength.

System error removal and structure optimization based on Fizeau interferometer

In the process of interferometric testing, the measurement result is influenced by the system structure, which reduces the measurement accuracy. To obtain an accurate test result, it is necessary to analyze the test system, and build the relationship between the measurement error and the system parameters. In this paper, the influences of the system elements which include the collimated lens and the standard surface on the interferometric testing are analyzed, the expressions of phase distribution and wavefront error on the detector are obtained, the method to remove some element errors is introduced, and the optimization structure relationships are given. (C) 2006 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Effect of elliptical manufacture error of an axicon on the diffraction-free beam patterns

Based on the generalized Huygens-Fresnel diffraction integral theory and the stationary-phase method, we analyze the influence on diffraction-free beam patterns of an elliptical manufacture error in an axicon. The numerical simulation is compared with the beam patterns photographed by using a CCD camera. Theoretical simulation and experimental results indicate that the intensity of the central spot decreases with increasing elliptical manufacture defect and propagation distance. Meanwhile, the bright rings around the central spot are gradually split into four or more symmetrical bright spots. The experimental results fit the theoretical simulation very well. (C) 2008 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

Modelling and simulation of the second-order Doppler error of a laser dual-frequency interferometer

Only the first- order Doppler frequency shift is considered in current laser dual- frequency interferometers; however; the second- order Doppler frequency shift should be considered when the measurement corner cube ( MCC) moves at high velocity or variable velocity because it can cause considerable error. The influence of the second- order Doppler frequency shift on interferometer error is studied in this paper, and a model of the second- order Doppler error is put forward. Moreover, the model has been simulated with both high velocity and variable velocity motion. The simulated results show that the second- order Doppler error is proportional to the velocity of the MCC when it moves with uniform motion and the measured displacement is certain. When the MCC moves with variable motion, the second- order Doppler error concerns not only velocity but also acceleration. When muzzle velocity is zero the second- order Doppler error caused by an acceleration of 0.6g can be up to 2.5 nm in 0.4 s, which is not negligible in nanometric measurement. Moreover, when the muzzle velocity is nonzero, the accelerated motion may result in a greater error and decelerated motion may result in a smaller error.