不确定性类型对概率表达和概率判断的影响

The present research firstly reviewed the experimental literature on probability expression and probability judgment, hypothesizing that individuals’ preference of probability expressions (verbal probability vs. numerical probability) and tendency for overextremity in probability judgment might differ with respect to different types of uncertainty. Five studies were conducted to test this hypothesis. In Study 1, questionnaires were used to explore the communication preference among Chinese-speaking people. Study 2 adapted the View of Uncertainty Questionnaire to explore the difference of verbal answers to three kinds of uncertainty. Study 3 and Study 4 used methods of the paper-and-pencil questionnaire and the laboratory experiment, respectively, to test the effects of uncertainty types on the preference of probability expressions and on the tendency for over-extreme probability judgment. Finally, Study 5 focused on individuals’ preference of probability expressions under various kinds of scenarios. The results were as follows: 1. The Communication Model Preference paradox phenomenon appears to be even more pronounced in the Chinese culture than in American English cultural settings. 2. The Chinese prefer more verbal probability expressions when communicating uncertainty in a weather-forecasting context than in a general context. 3. Sample groups with lower level of westernization tend to give more extreme answers and less probabilistic answers. 4. Types of uncertainty did have effects on individuals’ tendency for over-extreme probability judgment: under a traditional probability judgment task, people tend to be more over-extreme on internal uncertainty events than on external uncertainty events; however, this result is reversed under a gambling task. 5. Individuals’ preference for verbal probability expressions is more salient on internal uncertain events than on external uncertain events.

不同类型量表的线上调查和传统纸笔调查的比较研究

During the past 11 years, with the rapid development of the Internet, more and more psychologists began to realize and take advantage of it, which led to a growing number of psychological test administrated on the internet for data collection. But there were some controversy about the reliability and representatively of this new method. To examine the applicability of the Online Survey and how different types of scales used on the internet, we first reversed the measurement instrument, then from three different levels to investigate the equivalence of online survey and paper-and-pencil assessment, namely, sample level, scale level and item level. Both Classical Test Theory and Item Response Theory were used to analyze the invariance of different types of scale applicability on the internet. The main conclusions of this study could be drawn as follows: 1. In the sample-based study, self-select sample of the online survey was compared to the random sampled sample of paper-and-pencil assessment. The results showed there were no gender difference between them (p>0.05), but the online survey sample was characterized with high qualifications, high-income and younger features (88% of the sample with post-secondary education or above, and 71% aged 20 -29 years). There were significant differences on the scores of all scales between online survey and paper-and-pencil assessment (p<0.01). With demographic controlled, there was no significant difference on the variable of Neurotic between different surveys (p>0.05). 2. With in-group design, it was proved equivalence of the scale of BI (Attitude toward Brand Importance), BT (Attitude toword Brand Switcher), Extraversion, and Conscientiousbess in the compared study in the reliability, construct validity and average scores. 3. On the item level, the results based on the Item Response Theory analysis showed that 2PLM is appropriate for personality and attitude scales. With regard to personality scale, there emerged some items with DIF in the dimensions of Openness to the experience subscale and Agreeable subscale. However, there were no significant differences about the test function. 4. Exploring the psychometrics properties of answer formats of five-, six-, seven-, ten-points, it was showed that different measurement validity between online survey and paper-and-pencil test. It was also described the lower reliability and validity of six-point scale. In conclusion, the results support the application of personality scale online, but for attitude scale, we need to choose prudently.

Effects of Noise and Detection Error in a Dynamic Adaptive Optics System

It is well known that noise and detection error can affect the performances of an adaptive optics (AO) system. Effects of noise and detection error on the phase compensation effectiveness in a dynamic AO system are investigated by means of a pure numerical simulation in this paper. A theoretical model for numerically simulating effects of noise and detection error in a static AO system and a corresponding computer program were presented in a previous article. A numerical simulation of effects of noise and detection error is combined with our previous numeral simulation of a dynamic AO system in this paper and a corresponding computer program has been compiled. Effects of detection error, readout noise and photon noise are included and investigated by a numerical simulation for finding the preferred working conditions and the best performances in a practical dynamic AO system. An approximate model is presented as well. Under many practical conditions such approximate model is a good alternative to the more accurate one. A simple algorithm which can be used for reducing the effect of noise is presented as well. When signal to noise ratio is very low, such method can be used to improve the performances of a dynamic AO system.

Rheological flow from a die and painting on a moving solid wall

Die swell is an important, phenomenon. in polymer processing, and is explained usually by rheological properties of the fluid. Because of the nonuniform of temperature distribution on the free surface of the liquid jet, the thermo capillary convection driven by surface tension gradient exists. The rheological fluid flowing out of a die and painting on a moving solid wall is studied by the numerical finite element method of a two-dimensional and unsteady model in the present paper, and both the rheological effect of a non-Newtonian fluid and the thermocapillary effect are considered. The results show that both,effects; will enlarge the cross-section of the fluid jet, and the rheological effect of non-Newtonian fluid dominates the process in general.

A unified model for dislocation nucleation, dislocation emission and dislocation free zone

In this paper, a unified model for dislocation nucleation, emission and dislocation free zone is proposed based on the Peierls framework. Three regions are identified ahead of the crack tip. The emitted dislocations, located away from the crack tip in the form of an inverse pileup, define the plastic zone. Between that zone and the cohesive zone immediately ahead of the crack tip, there is a dislocation free zone. With the stress field and the dislocation density field in the cohesive zone and plastic zone being, respectively, expressed in the first and second Chebyshev polynomial series, and the opening and slip displacements in trigonometric series, a set of nonlinear algebraic equations can be obtained and solved with the Newton-Raphson Method. The results of calculations for pure shearing and combined tension and shear loading after dislocation emission are given in detail. An approximate treatment of the dynamic effects of the dislocation emission is also developed in this paper, and the calculation results are in good agreement with those of molecular dynamics simulations.

New Strain Gradient Theory And Analysis

A new strain gradient theory which is based on energy nonlocal model is proposed in this paper, and the theory is applied to investigate the size effects in thin metallic wire torsion, ultra-thin beam bending and micro-indentation of polycrystalline copper. First, an energy nonlocal model is suggested. Second, based on the model, a new strain gradient theory is derived. Third, the new theory is applied to analyze three representative experiments.

Modelling and simulation of the second-order Doppler error of a laser dual-frequency interferometer

Only the first- order Doppler frequency shift is considered in current laser dual- frequency interferometers; however; the second- order Doppler frequency shift should be considered when the measurement corner cube ( MCC) moves at high velocity or variable velocity because it can cause considerable error. The influence of the second- order Doppler frequency shift on interferometer error is studied in this paper, and a model of the second- order Doppler error is put forward. Moreover, the model has been simulated with both high velocity and variable velocity motion. The simulated results show that the second- order Doppler error is proportional to the velocity of the MCC when it moves with uniform motion and the measured displacement is certain. When the MCC moves with variable motion, the second- order Doppler error concerns not only velocity but also acceleration. When muzzle velocity is zero the second- order Doppler error caused by an acceleration of 0.6g can be up to 2.5 nm in 0.4 s, which is not negligible in nanometric measurement. Moreover, when the muzzle velocity is nonzero, the accelerated motion may result in a greater error and decelerated motion may result in a smaller error.

Chemical environment code and measure of molecular similarity

A new scheme for the code of chemical environments of compounds is described in this paper, and three molecular similarity methods have been used to select nearest neighbors from four different types of probe compounds. One of the methods is based on the C-13 NMR spectra. The second method is based on the code of chemical environments and molecular topological index A(x). The third approach, i.e. the Tanimoto coefficient, is also based on the code of chemical environments, but not to use the topological index. Five nearest neighbors for each probe compound using these three molecular similarity methods were determined and taken from the database of 7309 structures. The results indicate that the scheme of the chemical environment code and the method for similarity measure of intermolecules suggested in this study are reasonable. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular determination of oxytetracycline-resistant bacteria and their resistance genes from mariculture environments of China

Aims: To assess the diversity of antibiotic-resistant bacteria and their resistance genes in typical maricultural environments. Methods nand Results: Multidrug-resistant bacteria and resistance genes from a mariculture farm of China were analysed via cultivation and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) methods. Oxytetracycline (OTC)-resistant bacteria were abundant in both abalone and turbot rearing waters, accounting for 3.7% and 9.9% of the culturable microbes. Multidrug resistance was common, with simultaneous resistance to OTC, chloramphenicol and ampicillin the most common resistance phenotype. 16S rDNA sequence analyses indicate that the typical resistant isolates belonged to marine Vibrio, Pseudoalteromonas or Alteromonas species, with resistance most common in Vibrio splendidus isolates. For OTC resistance, tet(A), tet(B) and tet(M) genes were detected in some multidrug-resistant isolates, with tet(D) being the most common molecular determinant. For chloramphenicol resistance, cat II was common, and floR was also detected, especially in marine Pseudoalteromonas strains. Conclusions: There is the risk of multidrug-resistant bacteria contamination in mariculture environments and marine Vibrio and Pseudoalteromonas species serve as reservoirs of specific antibiotic resistance determinants. Significance and Impact of the Study: This paper and similar findings from Korea and Japan indicate the potential for widespread distribution of antibiotic resistance genes in mariculture environments from the East Asian region of the world.

Antimicrobial activity of hydroxylbenzenesulfonailides derivatives of chitosan, chitosan sulfates and carboxymethyl chitosan

Chitosan, carboxymethyl chitosan (CIVICS) and chitosan sulfates (CSS) with different molecular weight were modified by reacting with 4-hydroxyl-5-chloride-1,3-benzene-disulfo-chloride or 2-hydroxyl-5-chloride-1,3 -benzene-disulfo-chloride to give 12 kinds of new hydroxylbenzenesulfonailides derivatives of them. The preparation conditions of the derivatives were discussed in this paper, and their structures were characterized by FT-IR and C-13 NMR spectroscopy. The solubility of the derivatives was measured in the experiment. In addition, their antimicrobial activities against four bacteria and five crop-threatening pathogenic fungi were tested in the experiment. Besides, the rule and mechanism of their antibacterial activities were discussed in this paper. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Three-Dimensional Propagation of the Transmitted Shock Wave in a Square Cross-Sectional Chamber

An investigation into the three-dimensional propagation of the transmitted shock wave in a square cross-section chamber was described in this paper, and the work was carried out numerically by solving the Euler equations with a dispersion-controlled scheme. Computational images were constructed from the density distribution of the transmitted shock wave discharging from the open end of the square shock tube and compared directly with holographic interferograms available for CFD validation. Two cases of the transmitted shock wave propagating at different Mach numbers in the same geometry were simulated. A special shock reflection system near the corner of the square cross-section chamber was observed, consisting of four shock waves: the transmitted shock wave, two reflection shock waves and a Mach stem. A contact surface may appear in the four-shock system when the transmitted shock wave becomes stronger. Both the secondary shock wave and the primary vortex loop are three-dimensional in the present case due to the non-uniform flow expansion behind the transmitted shock.

Application of Three-Dimensional Discrete Element Face-to-Face Contact Model with Fissure Water Pressure to Stability Analysis of Landslide in Panluo Iron Mine

Three-dimensional discrete element face-to-face contact model with fissure water pressure is established in this paper and the model is used to simulate three-stage process of landslide under fissure water pressure in the opencast mine, according to the actual state of landslide in Panluo iron mine where landslide happened in 1990 and was fathered in 1999. The calculation results show that fissure water pressure on the sliding surface is the main reason causing landslide and the local soft interlayer weakens the stability of slope. If the discrete element method adopts the same assumption as the limit equilibrium method, the results of two methods are in good agreement; while if the assumption is not adopted in the discrete element method, the critical phi numerically calculated is less than the one calculated by use of the limit equilibrium method for the same C. Thus, from an engineering point of view, the result from the discrete element model simulation is safer and has more widely application since the discrete element model takes into account the effect of rock mass structures.

阿尔文涨落与地球磁层亚暴

本文讨论了一种地球磁层的亚暴机制。当行星际磁场有大的南向分量时,磁层的位形可由基本闭式转变为开式。磁鞘中的阿尔文波可以携带超过10~(18)尔格/秒的能流传入磁层尾部,并将能量耗散于等离子体片中。等离子体片中的粒子被加热和加速后,注入近地空间,产生环电流和极区亚暴。计算了剪切流场中阿尔文波的传播过程,以及磁层中阿尔文波的耗散。将本文的结算与[4]中的结果合在一起,可以说明当行星际磁场转向南时,容易发生地球磁层亚暴,但这两者并非一一对应的关系,行星际磁场没有南向分量时也可以发生地球磁层亚暴。

Transition from steady to oscillatory convection with chaotic feature in thermocapillary convection

The transition process from steady to turbulent convection via subharmonic bifurcation in thermocapillary convection of half floating zone was studied by numerical simulation and experimental test. Both approaches gave structure of period doubling bifurcations in the present paper, and the Feigenbaum universal law was checked for the system of thermocapillary convection.

Research on Bearing Capacity Calculation Method of Large Diameter Cylinder in Soft Clay

A large diameter cylinder inserted in soils is a new type of engineering structures used in offshore and port engineering. The mechanism of its bearing capacity and the analysis of its stability are important to its design and applications. In this paper, the finite element method is used to analyze the reacting forces of the soft soil foundation on the structure under the wave action. A simplified method is proposed, based on the plastic limit method, for the safety and stability analysis. Our analysis shows that the assumptions made in this paper and the mechanism used are reasonable, and the results obtained are appropriate. The calculation method is very efficient and can be used to evaluate main parameters of the structure in its preliminary designs.