不确定性类型对概率表达和概率判断的影响

The present research firstly reviewed the experimental literature on probability expression and probability judgment, hypothesizing that individuals’ preference of probability expressions (verbal probability vs. numerical probability) and tendency for overextremity in probability judgment might differ with respect to different types of uncertainty. Five studies were conducted to test this hypothesis. In Study 1, questionnaires were used to explore the communication preference among Chinese-speaking people. Study 2 adapted the View of Uncertainty Questionnaire to explore the difference of verbal answers to three kinds of uncertainty. Study 3 and Study 4 used methods of the paper-and-pencil questionnaire and the laboratory experiment, respectively, to test the effects of uncertainty types on the preference of probability expressions and on the tendency for over-extreme probability judgment. Finally, Study 5 focused on individuals’ preference of probability expressions under various kinds of scenarios. The results were as follows: 1. The Communication Model Preference paradox phenomenon appears to be even more pronounced in the Chinese culture than in American English cultural settings. 2. The Chinese prefer more verbal probability expressions when communicating uncertainty in a weather-forecasting context than in a general context. 3. Sample groups with lower level of westernization tend to give more extreme answers and less probabilistic answers. 4. Types of uncertainty did have effects on individuals’ tendency for over-extreme probability judgment: under a traditional probability judgment task, people tend to be more over-extreme on internal uncertainty events than on external uncertainty events; however, this result is reversed under a gambling task. 5. Individuals’ preference for verbal probability expressions is more salient on internal uncertain events than on external uncertain events.

Numerical Analysis of a Dual Polarization Mode-Locked Laser with a Quarter Wave Plate

Dynamical behaviors and frequency characteristics of an active mode-locked laser with a quarter wave plate (QWP) are numerically studied by using a set pf vectorial laser equation. Like a polarization self-modulated laser, a frequency shift of half the cavity mode spacing exists between the eigen-modes in the two neutral axes of QWP. Within the active medium, the symmetric gain and cavity structure maintain the pulse's circular polarization with left-hand and right-hand in turn for each round trip. Once the left-hand or right-hand circularly polarized pulse passes through QWP, its polarization is linear and the polarized direction is in one of the directions of i45o with respect to the neutral axes of QWP. The output components in the directions of i45" from the mirror close to QWP are all linearly polarized with a period of twice the round-trip time.

Numerical Investigation of Richtmyer-Meshkov Instability Driven by Cylindrical Shocks

In this paper, a numerical method with high order accuracy and high resolution was developed to simulate the Richtmyer-Meshkov(RM) instability driven by cylindrical shock waves. Compressible Euler equations in cylindrical coordinate were adopted for the cylindrical geometry and a third order accurate group control scheme was adopted to discretize the equations. Moreover, an adaptive grid technique was developed to refine the grid near the moving interface to improve the resolution of numerical solutions. The results of simulation exhibited the evolution process of RM instability, and the effect of Atwood number was studied. The larger the absolute value of Atwood number, the larger the perturbation amplitude. The nonlinear effect manifests more evidently in cylindrical geometry. The shock reflected from the pole center accelerates the interface for the second time, considerably complicating the interface evolution process, and such phenomena of reshock and secondary shock were studied.

Direct Numerical Simulation of a Spatially Evolving Supersonic Turbulent Boundary Layer at Ma=6

Direct numerical simulation is carried out for a spatially evolving supersonic turbulent boundary layer at free-stream Mach number 6. To overcome numerical instability, the seventh-order WENO scheme is used for the convection terms of Navier-Stokes equations, and fine mesh is adopted to minimize numerical dissipation. Compressibilty effects on the near-wall turbulent kinetic energy budget are studied. The cross-stream extended self-similarity and scaling exponents including the near-wall region are studied. In high Mach number flows, the coherence vortex structures are arranged to be smoother and streamwised, and the hair-pin vortices are less likely to occur.

Structural Failure Analysis and Numerical Simulation of Micro-Accelerometers under Impulsive Loading

Micromachined accelerometer is a kind of inertial MEMS devices, which usually operate under intensive impact loading. The reliability of micromachined accelerometers is one of the most important performance indices for their design, manufacture and commer

Numerical Analysis of Rainfall Infiltration in the Slope with a Fracture

With the finite volume method, a 2D numerical model for seepage in unsaturated soil has been established to study the rainfall infiltration in the fractured slope.The result shows that more rain may infiltrate into the slope due to existing fracture and then the pore pressure rises correspondingly. Very probably, it is one of the crucial factors accounting for slope failure. Furthermore a preliminary study has been conducted to investigate the influence of various fracture and rainfall factors such as the depth, width and location of a crack, surface condition, rainfall intensity and duration. Pore pressure and water volumetric content during the transient seepage are carefully examined to reveal the intrinsic mechanism.

Numerical solution of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with an upwind compact difference scheme

A new finite difference method for the discretization of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations is presented. The scheme is constructed on a staggered-mesh grid system. The convection terms are discretized with a fifth-order-accurate upwind compact difference approximation, the viscous terms are discretized with a sixth-order symmetrical compact difference approximation, the continuity equation and the pressure gradient in the momentum equations are discretized with a fourth-order difference approximation on a cell-centered mesh. Time advancement uses a three-stage Runge-Kutta method. The Poisson equation for computing the pressure is solved with preconditioning. Accuracy analysis shows that the new method has high resolving efficiency. Validation of the method by computation of Taylor's vortex array is presented.

Intensity Distribution Design for Laser-Induced Thermal Loading Based on Numerical Simulation

To accomplish laser-induced thermal loading simulation tests for pistons,the Gaussian beam was modulated into multi-circular beam with specific intensity distribution.A reverse method was proposed to design the intensity distribution for the laser-induced thermal loading based on finite element(FE) analysis.Firstly,the FE model is improved by alternating parameters of boundary conditions and thermal-physical properties of piston material in a reasonable range,therefore it can simulate the experimental resul...

Numerical simulation of an adaptive optics system with laser propagation in the atmosphere

A comprehensive model of laser propagation in the atmosphere with a complete adaptive optics (AO) system for phase compensation is presented, and a corresponding computer program is compiled. A direct wave-front gradient control method is used to reconstruct the wave-front phase. With the long-exposure Strehl ratio as the evaluation parameter, a numerical simulation of an AO system in a stationary state with the atmospheric propagation of a laser beam was conducted. It was found that for certain conditions the phase screen that describes turbulence in the atmosphere might not be isotropic. Numerical experiments show that the computational results in imaging of lenses by means of the fast Fourier transform (FFT) method agree well with those computed by means of an integration method. However, the computer time required for the FFT method is 1 order of magnitude less than that of the integration method. Phase tailoring of the calculated phase is presented as a means to solve the problem that variance of the calculated residual phase does not correspond to the correction effectiveness of an AO system. It is found for the first time to our knowledge that for a constant delay time of an AO system, when the lateral wind speed exceeds a threshold, the compensation effectiveness of an AO system is better than that of complete phase conjugation. This finding indicates that the better compensation capability of an AO system does not mean better correction effectiveness. (C) 2000 Optical Society of America.

Numerical Analysis of Theoretical Model of the Rf MEMs Switches

An improved electromechanical model of the RF MEMS (radio frequency microelectromechanical systems) switches is introduced, in which the effects of intrinsic residual stress from fabrication processes, axial stress due to stretching of beam, and fringing field are taken into account. Four dimensionless numbers are derived from the governing equation of the developed model. A semi-analytical method is developed to calculate the behavior of the RF MEMS switches. Subsequently the influence of the material and geometry parameters on the behavior of the structure is analyzed and compared, and the corresponding analysis with the dimensionless numbers is conducted too. The quantitative relationship between the presented parameters and the critical pull-in voltage is obtained, and the relative importance of those parameters is given.

Numerical Simulation of Nox Formation in Coal Combustion with Inlet Natural Gas Burning

A full two-fluid model of reacting gas-particle flows and coal combustion is used to simulate coal combustion with and without inlet natural gas added in the inlet. The simulation results for the case without natural gas burning is in fair agreement with the experimental results reported in references. The simulation results of different natural gas adding positions indicate that the natural gas burning can form lean oxygen combustion enviroment at the combustor inlet region and the NOz concentration is reduced. The same result can be obtained from chemical equilibrium analysis.

Direct numerical test of the B-G-K model equation by the DSMC method

In the present paper the rarefied gas how caused by the sudden change of the wall temperature and the Rayleigh problem are simulated by the DSMC method which has been validated by experiments both in global flour field and velocity distribution function level. The comparison of the simulated results with the accurate numerical solutions of the B-G-K model equation shows that near equilibrium the BG-K equation with corrected collision frequency can give accurate result but as farther away from equilibrium the B-G-K equation is not accurate. This is for the first time that the error caused by the B-G-K model equation has been revealed.

Numerical Study on Rainfall Infiltration in Rock-Soil Blocks

A mathematical model for the rain infiltration in the rock-soil slop has been established and solved by using the finite element method. The unsteady water infiltrating process has been simulated to get water content both in the homogeneous and heterogeneous media. The simulated results show that the rock blocks in the rock-soil slop can cause the wetting front moving fast. If the rain intensity is increased, the saturated region will be formed quickly while other conditions are the same. If the rain intensity keeps a constant, it is possible to accelerate the generation of the saturated region by properly increasing the vertical filtration rate of the rock-soil slop. However, if the vertical filtration rate is so far greater than the rain intensity, it will be difficult to form the saturated region in the rock-soil slop. The numerical method was verified by comparing the calculation results with the field test data.