基于MRF模型的油气储层属性随机建模方法研究

Stochastic reservoir modeling is a technique used in reservoir describing. Through this technique, multiple data sources with different scales can be integrated into the reservoir model and its uncertainty can be conveyed to researchers and supervisors. Stochastic reservoir modeling, for its digital models, its changeable scales, its honoring known information and data and its conveying uncertainty in models, provides a mathematical framework or platform for researchers to integrate multiple data sources and information with different scales into their prediction models. As a fresher method, stochastic reservoir modeling is on the upswing. Based on related works, this paper, starting with Markov property in reservoir, illustrates how to constitute spatial models for catalogued variables and continuum variables by use of Markov random fields. In order to explore reservoir properties, researchers should study the properties of rocks embedded in reservoirs. Apart from methods used in laboratories, geophysical means and subsequent interpretations may be the main sources for information and data used in petroleum exploration and exploitation. How to build a model for flow simulations based on incomplete information is to predict the spatial distributions of different reservoir variables. Considering data source, digital extent and methods, reservoir modeling can be catalogued into four sorts: reservoir sedimentology based method, reservoir seismic prediction, kriging and stochastic reservoir modeling. The application of Markov chain models in the analogue of sedimentary strata is introduced in the third of the paper. The concept of Markov chain model, N-step transition probability matrix, stationary distribution, the estimation of transition probability matrix, the testing of Markov property, 2 means for organizing sections-method based on equal intervals and based on rock facies, embedded Markov matrix, semi-Markov chain model, hidden Markov chain model, etc, are presented in this part. Based on 1-D Markov chain model, conditional 1-D Markov chain model is discussed in the fourth part. By extending 1-D Markov chain model to 2-D, 3-D situations, conditional 2-D, 3-D Markov chain models are presented. This part also discusses the estimation of vertical transition probability, lateral transition probability and the initialization of the top boundary. Corresponding digital models are used to specify, or testify related discussions. The fifth part, based on the fourth part and the application of MRF in image analysis, discusses MRF based method to simulate the spatial distribution of catalogued reservoir variables. In the part, the probability of a special catalogued variable mass, the definition of energy function for catalogued variable mass as a Markov random field, Strauss model, estimation of components in energy function are presented. Corresponding digital models are used to specify, or testify, related discussions. As for the simulation of the spatial distribution of continuum reservoir variables, the sixth part mainly explores 2 methods. The first is pure GMRF based method. Related contents include GMRF model and its neighborhood, parameters estimation, and MCMC iteration method. A digital example illustrates the corresponding method. The second is two-stage models method. Based on the results of catalogued variables distribution simulation, this method, taking GMRF as the prior distribution for continuum variables, taking the relationship between catalogued variables such as rock facies, continuum variables such as porosity, permeability, fluid saturation, can bring a series of stochastic images for the spatial distribution of continuum variables. Integrating multiple data sources into the reservoir model is one of the merits of stochastic reservoir modeling. After discussing how to model spatial distributions of catalogued reservoir variables, continuum reservoir variables, the paper explores how to combine conceptual depositional models, well logs, cores, seismic attributes production history.

基于随机网络编码的无线广播重传方案及性能分析

针对自动最复重传(ARQ)机制在无线广播系统中吞吐量性能不佳的缺陷,提出一种基于随机网络编码的广播重传方案RNC-ARQ。对于广播节点,采用随机线性码对所有丢失包进行编码组合重传。对于接收节点,当接收的编码包累积到一定数量后可通过解码操作恢复出原始数据。该方案可有效减少重传次数,改善无线广播的吞吐量性能。基于Gilbert-Elliott模型描述的突发错误信道,建立了信道状态和节点接收处理流程合并的多状态马尔可夫模型,并以此为基础推导了RNC-ARQ方案的TQ吐量闭合解。最后,使用NS-2模拟器评估RNC-ARQ方案的性能,结果表明在突发差错信道下,基于随机网络编码重传方案的吞吐量优于传统的选择重传ARQ方案和基于异或编码的重传方案。

Parameter-estimation of a spherical top inductively-coupled plasma source with global-model

Using spatially averaged global model, we succeed in obtaining some plasma parameters for a low pressure inductively coupled plasma source of our laboratory. As far as the global balance is concerned, the models can give reasonable results of the parameters, such as the global electron temperature and the ion impacting energy, etc. It is found that the ion flow is hardly affected by the neutral gas pressure. Finally, the magnetic effects are calculated by means of the method. The magnetic field can play an important role to increase plasma density and ion current.

Theoretical estimation of thermodynamic properties of the system PS/PPO on the basis of modified combining rule of Sanchez-Lacombe lattice fluid model

The three scaling parameters described in Sanchez-Lacombe lattice fluid theory (SLLFT), T*, P* and rho* of pure polystyrene (PS), pure poly(2,6-dimethyl-1,4-phenylene oxide) (PPO) and their mixtures are obtained by fitting corresponding experimental pressure volume-temperature data with equation-of-state of SLLFT. A modified combining rule in SLLFT used to match the volume per mer, v* of the PS/PPO mixtures was advanced and the enthalpy of mixing and Flory-Huggins (FH) interaction parameter were calculated using the new rule. It is found that the difference between the new rule and the old one presented by Sanchez and Lacombe is quite small in the calculation of the enthalpy of mixing and FH interaction parameter and the effect of volume-combining rule on the calculation of thermodynamic properties is much smaller than that of energy-combining rule. But the relative value of interaction parameter changes much due to the new volume-based combining rule. This effect can affect the position of phase diagram very much, which is reported elsewhere [Macromolecules 34 (2001) 6291]

A simulation model of a floating half zone

A simulation model of a floating half zone was suggested by steady numerical simulation and experiment respectively, in the previous papers [Q.S. Chen, W.R. Hu, Int. J. Mass Heat Transfer 40 (1997) 757; J.H. Han, Y. Ar, R. Zhou, W.R. Hue, Int. J. Mass Heat Transfer 40 (1997) 2671]. In the present paper, the simulation model is studied by using the method of unsteady and three-dimensional numerical simulation, and the transient process from steady convection to oscillatory convection is especially analyzed. Comparison of onsets of oscillation for both simulation model and the usual model were obtained, and the results show that the critical Marangoni number of the simulation model is obviously smaller than that of the usual model for the same slender liquid bridge. This implies that the usual model of a floating half zone gives a lower estimation on the onset of oscillation for floating zone convection.

Pull-In Instability Of Micro-Switch Actuators: Model Review

The existing three widely used pull-in theoretical models (i.e., one-dimensional lumped model, linear supposition model and planar model) are compared with the nonlinear beam mode in this paper by considering both cantilever and fixed-fixed type micro and nano-switches. It is found that the error of the pull-in parameters between one-dimensional lumped model and the nonlinear beam model is large because the denominator of the electrostatic force is minimal when the electrostatic force is computed at the maximum deflection along the beam. Since both the linear superposition model and the slender planar model consider the variation of electrostatic force with the beam's deflection, these two models not only are of the same type but also own little error of the pull-in parameters with the nonlinear beam model, the error brought by these two models attributes to that the boundary conditions are not completely satisfied when computing the numerical integration of the deflection.

Estimation of Correlation Distance of Soil Properties by Geostatistics

Random field theory has been used to model the spatial average soil properties, whereas the most widely used, geostatistics, on which also based a common basis (covariance function) has been successfully used to model and estimate natural resource since 1960s. Therefore, geostistics should in principle be an efficient way to model soil spatial variability Based on this, the paper presents an alternative approach to estimate the scale of fluctuation or correlation distance of a soil stratum by geostatistics. The procedure includes four steps calculating experimental variogram from measured data, selecting a suited theoretical variogram model, fitting the theoretical one to the experimental variogram, taking the parameters within the theoretical model obtained from optimization into a simple and finite correlation distance 6 relationship to the range a. The paper also gives eight typical expressions between a and b. Finally, a practical example was presented for showing the methodology.

Estimation of the natural purification rate of a eutrophic lake after pollutant removal

Pollution resulting from increased human activities is threatening Lake Donghu, its effects being characterized by serious eutrophication. A steady increase of phosphorus loading is the most important factor of the lake eutrophication. Pollution external control projects are being implemented and will be accomplished before the year 2010. In order to predict the restoration rate by the lake's self-purification after the projects of external control, a model of predicting the removal rate of total phosphorus (TP) from lake water is developed, and a brief method of estimating the release and export rate of sediment phosphorus is suggested. Results show that, on the premise of external loading fully controlled. The restoration needs about 55 years or more. Obviously, the great P pool in the sediment will be a limiting factor of preventing the improvement of water quality after the external loading is under control. Based on the estimation we conclude that after the external control projects before 2010, in order to restore the lake in a few years, although highly cost, the first step must be the sediment dredging to remove internal loading. The second step is diverting water of River Changjiang into the lake to accelerate the improvement of lake water. Otherwise, removal of pollutant sources will become meaningless. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential frequency bandwidth estimation of TO packaging techniques for photodiode modules

Scattering parameters of photodiode chip, TO header and TO packaged module are measured, and the effects of TO packaging network on the high-frequency response of photodiode are investigated. Based on the analysis, the potential bandwidth of TO packaging techniques is estimated from the scattering parameters of the TO packaging network. Another method for estimating the potential bandwidth from the equivalent circuit for the TO packaged photodiode model is also presented. The results obtained using both methods show that the TO packaging techniques used in the experiments can potentially achieve a frequency bandwidth of 22 GHz.

Modern spectral estimation of ICP-AES

The inductively coupled plasma atomic emission, spectrometry (ICP-AES) and its signal characteristics were discussed using modem spectral estimation technique. The power spectra density (PSD) was calculated using the auto-regression (AR) model of modem spectra estimation. The Levinson-Durbin recursion method was used to estimate the model parameters which were used for the PSD computation. The results obtained with actual ICP-AES spectra and measurements showed that the spectral estimation technique was helpful for the better understanding about spectral composition and signal characteristics.

Cure processing modeling and cure cycle simulation of epoxy-terminated poly(phenylene ether ketone). V: Estimation of temperature distribution during cure process

A numerical method to estimate temperature distribution during the cure of epoxy-terminated poly(phenylene ether ketone) (E-PEK)-based composite is suggested. The effect of the temperature distribution on the selection of cure cycle is evaluated using a suggested alternation criterion. The effect of varying heating rate and thickness on the temperature distribution, viscosity distribution and distribution of the extent of cure reaction are discussed based on the combination of the here-established temperature distribution model and the previously established curing kinetics model and chemorheological model. It is found that, for a thin composite (<=10mm) and low heating rate (<=2.5K/min), the effect of temperature distribution on cure cycle and on the processing window for pressure application can be neglected. Low heating rate is of benefit to reduce the temperature gradient. The processing window for pressure application becomes narrower with increasing thicknesses of composite sheets. The validity of the temperature distribution model and the modified processing window is evaluated through the characterization of mechanical and physical properties of E-PEK-based composite fabricated according to different temperature distribution conditions.

Factors affecting the estimation of gas hydrate and free gas saturation

Attenuations of different types of gas hydrate cementation in fluid-saturated porous solids are discussed. The factors affecting estimation of gas hydrate and free gas saturation are analyzed. It is suggested that porosity of sediment, the P wave velocity model and methods of calculating elastic modulus are key factors in the estimation of gas hydrate and free gas saturations. Attenuation of gas hydrate-bearing sediment is closely related with the cementation types of gas hydrate. Negative anomalies of quality factors indicate that gas hydrate deposits away from grain as part of fluid. Positive anomalies of the quality factors indicate that gas hydrate contacts with solid and changes the elastic modulus of matrix. Low frequency velocity and high frequency velocity models are used to estimate gas hydrate and free gas saturation in the Blake Ridge area according to the well log data of the hole 995 in ODP leg 164. The gas hydrate saturation obtained by low frequency velocity is 10% similar to 20% of the pore space and free gas saturation is 0.5% similar to 1% of the pore space. The gas hydrate saturation obtained by high frequency velocity is 5% similar to 10% of the pore space and free gas saturation is 1% similar to 2% of the pore space.

Analysis of the sea-level variability along the Chinese coast and estimation of the impact of a CO2-perturbed atmospheric circulation

The relationship between monthly sea-level data measured at stations located along the Chinese coast and concurrent large-scale atmospheric forcing in the period 1960-1990 is examined. It is found that sea-level varies quite coherently along the whole coast, despite the geographical extension of the station set. A canonical correlation analysis between sea-level and sea-level pressure (SLP) indicates that a great part of the sea-level variability can be explained by the action of the wind stress on the ocean surface. The relationship between sea-level and sea-level pressure is analyzed separately for the summer and winter half-years. In winter, one factor affecting sea-level variability at all stations is the SLP contrast between the continent and the Pacific Ocean, hence the intensity of the winter Monsoon circulation. Another factor that affects coherently all stations is the intensity of the zonal circulation at mid-latitudes. In the summer half year, on the other hand, the influence of SLP on sea-level is spatially less coherent: the stations in the Yellow Sea are affected by a more localized circulation anomaly pattern, whereas the rest of the stations is more directly connected to the intensity of the zonal circulation. Based on this analysis, statistical models (different for summer and winter) to hindcast coastal sealevel anomalies from the large-scale SLP field are formulated. These models have been tested by fitting their internal parameters in a test period and reproducing reasonably the sea-level evolution in an independent period. These statistical models are also used to estimate the contribution of the changes of the atmospheric circulation on sea-level along the Chinese coast in an altered climate. For this purpose the ouput of 150 year-long experiment with the coupled ocean-atmosphere model ECHAM1-LSG has been analyzed, in which the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases was continuously increased from 1940 until 2090, according to the Scenario A projection of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change. In this experiment the meridional (zonal) circulation relevant for sea-level tends to become weaker (stronger) in the winter half year and stronger (weaker) in summer. The estimated contribution of this atmospheric circulation changes to coastal sea-level is of the order of a few centimeters at the end of the integration, being in winter negative in the Yellow Sea and positive in the China Sea with opposite signs in the summer half-year.

Wind-vector estimation for RADARSAT-1 SAR images: Validation of wind-direction estimates based upon geometry diversity

In this letter, a new wind-vector algorithm is presented that uses radar backscatter sigma(0) measurements at two adjacent subscenes of RADARSAT-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images, with each subscene having slightly different geometry. Resultant wind vectors are validated using in situ buoy measurements and compared with wind vectors determined from a hybrid wind-retrieval model using wind directions determined by spectral analysis of wind-induced image streaks and observed by colocated QuikSCAT measurements. The hybrid wind-retrieval model consists of CMOD-IFR2 [applicable to C-band vertical-vertical (W) polarization] and a C-band copolarization ratio according to Kirchhoff scattering. The new algorithm displays improved skill in wind-vector estimation for RADARSAT-1 SAR data when compared to conventional wind-retrieval methodology. In addition, unlike conventional methods, the present method is applicable to RADARSAT-1 images both with and without visible streaks. However, this method requires ancillary data such as buoy measurements to resolve the ambiguity in retrieved wind direction.