不确定性类型对概率表达和概率判断的影响

The present research firstly reviewed the experimental literature on probability expression and probability judgment, hypothesizing that individuals’ preference of probability expressions (verbal probability vs. numerical probability) and tendency for overextremity in probability judgment might differ with respect to different types of uncertainty. Five studies were conducted to test this hypothesis. In Study 1, questionnaires were used to explore the communication preference among Chinese-speaking people. Study 2 adapted the View of Uncertainty Questionnaire to explore the difference of verbal answers to three kinds of uncertainty. Study 3 and Study 4 used methods of the paper-and-pencil questionnaire and the laboratory experiment, respectively, to test the effects of uncertainty types on the preference of probability expressions and on the tendency for over-extreme probability judgment. Finally, Study 5 focused on individuals’ preference of probability expressions under various kinds of scenarios. The results were as follows: 1. The Communication Model Preference paradox phenomenon appears to be even more pronounced in the Chinese culture than in American English cultural settings. 2. The Chinese prefer more verbal probability expressions when communicating uncertainty in a weather-forecasting context than in a general context. 3. Sample groups with lower level of westernization tend to give more extreme answers and less probabilistic answers. 4. Types of uncertainty did have effects on individuals’ tendency for over-extreme probability judgment: under a traditional probability judgment task, people tend to be more over-extreme on internal uncertainty events than on external uncertainty events; however, this result is reversed under a gambling task. 5. Individuals’ preference for verbal probability expressions is more salient on internal uncertain events than on external uncertain events.

Experimental Study on Hydrodynamic Behaviors of High-Speed Gas Jets in Still Water

The present paper describes experimental investigation on the flow pattern and hydrodynamic effect of underwater gas jets from supersonic and sonic nozzles operated in correct- and imperfect expansion conditions. The flow visualizations show that jetting is the flow regime for the submerged gas injection at a high speed in the parameter range under consideration. The obtained results indicate that high-speed gas jets in still water induce large pressure pulsations upstream of the nozzle exit and the presence of shock-cell structure in the over- and under-expanded jets leads to an increase in the intensity of the jet-induced hydrodynamic pressure.

Physical parameters affecting sonoluminescence: A self-consistent hydrodynamic study

We studied the dependence of thermodynamic variables in a sonoluminescing ~SL! bubble on various physical factors, which include viscosity, thermal conductivity, surface tension, the equation of state of the gas inside the bubble, as well as the compressibility of the surrounding liquid. The numerical solutions show that the existence of shock waves in the SL parameter regime is very sensitive to these factors. Furthermore, we show that even without shock waves, the reflection of continuous compressional waves at the bubble center can produce the high temperature and picosecond time scale light pulse of the SL bubble, which implies that SL may not necessarily be due to shock waves.

Hydrodynamic interaction between two vertical cylinders in water waves

The hydrodynamic interaction between two vertical cylinders in water waves is investigated based on the linearized potential flow theory. One of the two cylinders is fixed at the bottom while the other is articulated at the bottom and oscillates with small amplitudes in the direction of the incident wave. Both the diffracted wave and the radiation wave are studied in the present paper. A simple analytical expression for the velocity potential on the surface of each cylinder is obtained by means of Graf's addition theorem. The wave-excited forces and moments on the cylinders, the added masses and the radiation damping coefficients of the oscillating cylinder are all expressed explicitly in series form. The coefficients of the series are determined by solving algebraic equations. Several numerical examples are given to illustrate the effects of various parameters, such as the separation distance, the relative size of the cylinders, and the incident angle, on the first-order and steady second-order forces, the added masses and radiation-damping coefficients as well as the response of the oscillating cylinder.

Effect of nonlinear wave-current interaction on flow fields and hydrodynamic forces

A fifth-order theory for solving the problem of interaction between Stokes waves and exponential profile currents is proposed. The calculated flow fields are compared with measurements. Then the errors caused by the linear superposition method and approximate theory are discussed. It is found that the total wave-current field consists of pure wave, pure current and interaction components. The shear current not only directly changes the flow field, but also indirectly does sx, by changing the wave parameters due to wave-current interaction. The present theory can predict the wave kinematics on shear currents satisfactorily. The linear superposition method may give rise to more than 40% loading error in extreme conditions. When the apparent wave period is used and the Wheeler stretching method is adopted to extrapolate the current, application of the approximate theory is the best.

An asymptotic solution of hydrodynamic equations at the mid-plane of a plume in the earths mantle

From the partial differential equations of hydrodynamics governing the movements in the Earth's mantle of a Newtonian fluid with a pressure- and temperature-dependent viscosity, considering the bilateral symmetry of velocity and temperature distributions at the mid-plane of the plume, an analytical solution of the governing equations near the mid-plane of the plume was found by the method of asymptotic analysis. The vertical distribution of the upward velocity, viscosity and temperature at the mid-plane, and the temperature excess at the centre of the plume above the ambient mantle temperature were then calculated for two sets of Newtonian rheological parameters. The results obtained show that the temperature at the mid-plane and the temperature excess are nearly independent of the rheological parameters. The upward velocity at the mid-plane, however, is strongly dependent on the rheological parameters.

Oscillatory Flow Induced Hydrodynamic Forces upon a Pipeline near Erosive Sandy Seabed

An experimental study of the properties of hydrodynamic forces upon a marine pipeline is presented in this paper, in the equilibrium scour conditions for various Keulegan-Carpenter numbers and various initial relative gaps between pipeline and the erosive sandy seabed. The tests are conducted in a U-shaped oscillatory water tunnel with a sand box located at the bottom of the test section. According to the experimental results, the maximum horizontal forces on the pipelines with an initial gap to seabed will decrease to some extent due to scouring process. For engineering appliances, it seems safer to estimate wave induced forces on pipelines under the assumption that seabed is plane. However, it should be noticed that great changes would be brought to the frequency properties of lift forces because of the sandy scour beneath the pipeline, which occurs for certain KC numbers.

Effects of fundamental structure parameters on dynamic responses of submerged floating tunnel under hydrodynamic loads

This paper investigates the effects of structure parameters on dynamic responses of submerged floating tunnel (SFT) under hydrodynamic loads. The structure parameters includes buoyancy-weight ratio (BWR), stiffness coefficients of the cable systems, tunnel net buoyancy and tunnel length. First, the importance of structural damp in relation to the dynamic responses of SFT is demonstrated and the mechanism of structural damp effect is discussed. Thereafter, the fundamental structure parameters are investigated through the analysis of SFT dynamic responses under hydrodynamic loads. The results indicate that the BWR of SFT is a key structure parameter. When BWR is 1.2, there is a remarkable trend change in the vertical dynamic response of SFT under hydrodynamic loads. The results also indicate that the ratio of the tunnel net buoyancy to the cable stiffness coefficient is not a characteristic factor affecting the dynamic responses of SFT under hydrodynamic loads.

Forecasting Daily Chlorophyll a Concentration during the Spring Phytoplankton Bloom Period in Xiangxi Bay of the Three-Gorges Reservoir by Means of a Recurrent Artificial Neural Network

A recurrent artificial neural network was used for 0-and 7-days-ahead forecasting of daily spring phytoplankton bloom dynamics in Xiangxi Bay of Three-Gorges Reservoir with meteorological, hydrological, and limnological parameters as input variables. Daily data from the depth of 0.5 m was used to train the model, and data from the depth of 2.0 m was used to validate the calibrated model. The trained model achieved reasonable accuracy in predicting the daily dynamics of chlorophyll a both in 0-and 7-days-ahead forecasting. In 0-day-ahead forecasting, the R-2 values of observed and predicted data were 0.85 for training and 0.89 for validating. In 7-days-ahead forecasting, the R-2 values of training and validating were 0.68 and 0.66, respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicated that most ecological relationships between chlorophyll a and input environmental variables in 0-and 7-days-ahead models were reasonable. In the 0-day model, Secchi depth, water temperature, and dissolved silicate were the most important factors influencing the daily dynamics of chlorophyll a. And in 7-days-ahead predicting model, chlorophyll a was sensitive to most environmental variables except water level, DO, and NH3N.

Differing estrogen activities in the organic phase of air particulate matter collected during sunny and foggy weather in a Chinese city detected by a recombinant yeast bioassay

Total air suspended particles (PM 100) collected from an urban location near a traffic line in Wuhan, China, were examined for estrogen using a recombinant yeast bioassay. Wuhan, located at the central part of China, is the fourth biggest city in China with 7 million populations. Today, Wuhan has developed into the biggest city and the largest traveling center of central China, becoming one of the important bases of industry, education and research. Wuhan is right at the confluent point of Yangzi River, the third longest river in the world, and its largest distributary Hanjiang, with mountains and more than 100 takes in downtown area. Therefore, by its unique landscape, Wuhan has formed clear four seasons with relatively long winter and summer and short spring and autumn. Foggy weather usually happen in early spring. The yeast line used in this assay stably expresses human estrogen receptor-alpha. Weak but clear estrogenic activities were detected in the organic phase of crude extracts of air particle materials (APM) in both sunny and foggy weather by 0.19-0.79 mug E2/gPM(100) which were statistically significantly elevated relative to the blank control responding from 20% to 50% of the maximum E2 response, and the estrogenic activity was much higher in foggy weather than in sunny weather. The estrogenic activities in the sub-fractions from chromatographic separation of APM sampled in foggy days were also determined. The results indicated that the responses of the fractions were obviously higher than the crude extracts. Since there is no other large pollution source nearby, the estrogenic material was most likely from vehicle emissions, house heating sources and oil fumes of house cooking. The GC/MS analysis of the PM100 collected under foggy weather showed that there were many phenol derivatives, oxy-PAHs and resin acids which have been reported as environmental estrogens. These results of the analysis of estrogenic potency in sunny and foggy weather in a subtropical city of China indicate that further studies are required to investigate the actual risks for the associated health and atmospheric system. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A non-linear perturbation model considering catchment wetness and its application in river flow forecasting

A non-linear perturbation model for river flow forecasting is developed, based on consideration of catchment wetness using an antecedent precipitation index (API). Catchment seasonality, of the form accounted for in the linear perturbation model (the LPM), and non-linear behaviour both in the runoff generation mechanism and in the flow routing processes are represented by a constrained nan-linear model, the NLPM-API. A total of ten catchments, across a range of climatic conditions and catchment area magnitudes, located in China and in other countries, were selected for testing daily rainfall-runoff forecasting with this model. It was found that the NLPM-API model was significantly more efficient than the original linear perturbation model (the LPM). However, restric tion of explicit nan-linearity to the runoff generation process, in the simpler LPM-API form of the model, did not produce a significantly lower value of the efficiency in flood forecasting, in terms of the model efficiency index R-2. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Response amplitude and hydrodynamic force for a buoy over a convex

A buoy as an offshore structure is often placed over a convex such as a caisson or a submerged island. The hydrodynamic fluid/solid interaction becomes more complex due to the convex compared with that on the flat. Both the buoy and the convex are idealized as vertical cylinders. Linear potential theory is used to investigate the response amplitude and the hydrodynamic force for a buoy over a convex due to diffraction and radiation in water of finite depth. These are derived from the total velocity potential. A set of theoretical added mass, damping coefficient, and exciting force expressions have been proposed. Analytical results of the response amplitude and hydrodynamic force are given. Finally, the numerical results show that the effect of the convex on the response amplitude and hydrodynamic force for the buoy is ignored if the size of the convex is relatively smaller.