32 resultados para Forecast error variance

em Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid Portal


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Among different phase unwrapping approaches, the weighted least-squares minimization methods are gaining attention. In these algorithms, weighting coefficient is generated from a quality map. The intrinsic drawbacks of existing quality maps constrain the application of these algorithms. They often fail to handle wrapped phase data contains error sources, such as phase discontinuities, noise and undersampling. In order to deal with those intractable wrapped phase data, a new weighted least-squares phase unwrapping algorithm based on derivative variance correlation map is proposed. In the algorithm, derivative variance correlation map, a novel quality map, can truly reflect wrapped phase quality, ensuring a more reliable unwrapped result. The definition of the derivative variance correlation map and the principle of the proposed algorithm are present in detail. The performance of the new algorithm has been tested by use of a simulated spherical surface wrapped data and an experimental interferometric synthetic aperture radar (IFSAR) wrapped data. Computer simulation and experimental results have verified that the proposed algorithm can work effectively even when a wrapped phase map contains intractable error sources. (c) 2006 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

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With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

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It is well known that noise and detection error can affect the performances of an adaptive optics (AO) system. Effects of noise and detection error on the phase compensation effectiveness in a dynamic AO system are investigated by means of a pure numerical simulation in this paper. A theoretical model for numerically simulating effects of noise and detection error in a static AO system and a corresponding computer program were presented in a previous article. A numerical simulation of effects of noise and detection error is combined with our previous numeral simulation of a dynamic AO system in this paper and a corresponding computer program has been compiled. Effects of detection error, readout noise and photon noise are included and investigated by a numerical simulation for finding the preferred working conditions and the best performances in a practical dynamic AO system. An approximate model is presented as well. Under many practical conditions such approximate model is a good alternative to the more accurate one. A simple algorithm which can be used for reducing the effect of noise is presented as well. When signal to noise ratio is very low, such method can be used to improve the performances of a dynamic AO system.

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The paper proposes Latin hypercube sampling combined with the stratified sampling of variance reduction technique to calculate accurate fracture probability. In the compound sampling, the number of simulations is relatively small and the calculation error is satisfactory.

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给出相对论力学中普遍定律的实用判别法和协变集的实用构造法,还给出实现非普遍定律的“可导出性”的一种实用方法.

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The statistical-mechanics theory of the passive scalar field convected by turbulence, developed in an earlier paper [Phys. Fluids 28, 1299 (1985)], is extended to the case of a small molecular Prandtl number. The set of governing integral equations is solved by the equation-error method. The resultant scalar-variance spectrum for the inertial range is F(k)~x−5/3/[1+1.21x1.67(1+0.353x2.32)], where x is the wavenumber scaled by Corrsin's dissipation wavenumber. This result reduces to the − (5)/(3) law in the inertial-convective range. It also approximately reduces to the − (17)/(3) law in the inertial-diffusive range, but the proportionality constant differs from Batchelor's by a factor of 3.6.

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In this paper, the gamma-gamma probability distribution is used to model turbulent channels. The bit error rate (BER) performance of free space optical (FSO) communication systems employing on-off keying (OOK) or subcarrier binary phase-shift keying (BPSK) modulation format is derived. A tip-tilt adaptive optics system is also incorporated with a FSO system using the above modulation formats. The tip-tilt compensation can alleviate effects of atmospheric turbulence and thereby improve the BER performance. The improvement is different for different turbulence strengths and modulation formats. In addition, the BER performance of communication systems employing subcarrier BPSK modulation is much better than that of compatible systems employing OOK modulation with or without tip-tilt compensation.

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We analyse further the entanglement purification protocol proposed by Feng et al. (Phys. Lett. A 271 (2000) 44) in the case of imperfect local operations and measurements. It is found that this protocol allows of higher error threshold. Compared with the standard entanglement purification proposed by Bennett et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 76 (1996) 722], it turns out that this protocol is remarkably robust against the influences of imperfect local operations and measurements.

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In the process of interferometric testing, the measurement result is influenced by the system structure, which reduces the measurement accuracy. To obtain an accurate test result, it is necessary to analyze the test system, and build the relationship between the measurement error and the system parameters. In this paper, the influences of the system elements which include the collimated lens and the standard surface on the interferometric testing are analyzed, the expressions of phase distribution and wavefront error on the detector are obtained, the method to remove some element errors is introduced, and the optimization structure relationships are given. (C) 2006 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

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Based on the generalized Huygens-Fresnel diffraction integral theory and the stationary-phase method, we analyze the influence on diffraction-free beam patterns of an elliptical manufacture error in an axicon. The numerical simulation is compared with the beam patterns photographed by using a CCD camera. Theoretical simulation and experimental results indicate that the intensity of the central spot decreases with increasing elliptical manufacture defect and propagation distance. Meanwhile, the bright rings around the central spot are gradually split into four or more symmetrical bright spots. The experimental results fit the theoretical simulation very well. (C) 2008 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

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Only the first- order Doppler frequency shift is considered in current laser dual- frequency interferometers; however; the second- order Doppler frequency shift should be considered when the measurement corner cube ( MCC) moves at high velocity or variable velocity because it can cause considerable error. The influence of the second- order Doppler frequency shift on interferometer error is studied in this paper, and a model of the second- order Doppler error is put forward. Moreover, the model has been simulated with both high velocity and variable velocity motion. The simulated results show that the second- order Doppler error is proportional to the velocity of the MCC when it moves with uniform motion and the measured displacement is certain. When the MCC moves with variable motion, the second- order Doppler error concerns not only velocity but also acceleration. When muzzle velocity is zero the second- order Doppler error caused by an acceleration of 0.6g can be up to 2.5 nm in 0.4 s, which is not negligible in nanometric measurement. Moreover, when the muzzle velocity is nonzero, the accelerated motion may result in a greater error and decelerated motion may result in a smaller error.