辽宁沿海经济带景观格局动态预测及其生态安全研究

21世纪中国将进入工业化与城市化快速发展阶段，随着经济全球化与竞争国际化，产业集群开始成为经济发展的主流，以临港产业为代表的沿海经济带开发建设已成为发达国家的重要经验和国内沿海省市的主导区域战略，辽宁沿海经济带的开发建设将进一步加大沿海地区与周边地区及内地的资源信息交换，人口的大量流入、城市化进程的加快等都可能对沿海区域的生态环境质量和可持续发展与生态安全产生重要影响。 论文通过3S技术手段，应用转移矩阵、土地利用度量公式、景观空间格局分析和Kappa 指数系列方法对1988～2007 年辽宁沿海经济带的景观变化进行了综合分析，同时应用CLUE-S 模型在有无“辽宁沿海经济带开发建设规划”两个预案下对该区域2008～2020 年的景观变化进行了预测。应用生态足迹理论与方法对研究区1990～2006年的生态足迹与生态承载力进行了分析，以反映研究区可持续发展情况；应用时间序列（ARMA）与支持向量机（SVM）预测了研究区2007～2020年生态足迹与生态承载力变化。并对研究区进行了基于生态足迹的区域生态安全动态分析及预测研究，最后提出了研究区生态安全对策，得到如下主要结论： （1）辽宁沿海经济带在1988～2007年间景观格局变化并不十分显著，景观由少数几种景观类型所控制，各景观类型有不断趋于平均化的趋势，但速度较慢，景观的破碎化程度越来越严重。土地利用度逐步增大，反映在景观变化上，是以建设用地的持续扩张与耕地以及林地、水域面积缩小为特点，其中建设用地在景观类型转换中发挥着越来越重要的作用。主要的景观变化发生在耕地、林地、水域与建设用地之间。 （2）在有无“规划”两种预案下，景观变化的趋势基本一致，但变化幅度有明显差别。两种预案下耕地都趋于减少，但“规划预案”降幅更大一些。建设用地逐渐增加，但“规划预案”扩张更快，面积更多。建筑用地变化情况的不同导致其它景观类型变化的不同。两种预案下景观的破碎化程度均有减小的趋势，斑块形状趋于规则，景观的连通性也在逐年增大，其中在“规划预案”中表现得更为显著。 （3）辽宁沿海经济带从1990～2006年间的人均生态足迹与生态承载力均呈逐渐增大趋势，且生态足迹需求明显大于生态承载力，生态赤字在逐渐增大，研究区内的生态负荷已超过了其生态容量，现有的区域发展模式是不可持续的。其中生态足迹需求增大主要来自能源足迹需求增大，而生态承载力的增加主要是因为水域类面积的增加。17年间研究区的人均万元GDP生态足迹均有不同程度的下降趋势，表明该区域的资源利用效率在逐渐提高。 （4）过去17年来，辽宁沿海经济带的生态压力指数变化趋势为先升后降，区域生态安全经历了生态较安全、稍不安全、较不安全和稍不安全等阶段，表明该区域生态安全正在逐步改善。生态占用指数与生态经济协调指数均呈逐步增大的趋势，表明研究区的社会经济发展程度和人民消费水平正在走向较富裕阶段，该区域社会经济发展与生态环境的协调性也在逐渐改善。 （5）两种预案下，辽宁沿海经济带未来14年的人均生态足迹与人均生态承载力均有逐渐增大的趋势，且人均生态足迹均超过了其人均生态承载力，存在不同程度的生态赤字，发展模式仍将是不可持续的，其中“规划预案”下的发展模式更加不可持续。 （6）两种预案下，研究区未来14年的生态安全均处于稍不安全状态，其中“规划预案”的生态压力更小一些。两种预案下研究区的生态占用指数和生态经济协调指数均有逐年增大的趋势，区域经济均将从较富裕阶段走向很富裕阶段，经济增长与生态环境的协调程度也由较好阶段步入很好阶段。其中“规划预案”下的区域经济增长更快，与生态环境的协调性将更好一些。 （7）三种方案可以降低研究区“规划预案”下的生态压力指数，实现区域的生态安全。其中同时提高研究区的生态承载力，降低生态足迹的方案更为合理可行，既保障了区域安全，又实现了区域的可持续发展目标。 （8）要保障研究区未来14年的生态安全，建议规划增加水域面积，推进区域热电联产，发展清洁能源并推动区域间资源互补共享。

Climate change, sea level rise and integrated coastal zone management: An IPCC approach

Expansion of economic activities, urbanisation, increased resource use and population growth are continuously increasing the vulnerability of the coastal zone. This vulnerability is now further raised by the threat of climate change and accelerated sea level rise. The potentially severe impacts force policy-makers to also consider long-term planning for climate change and sea level rise. For reasons of efficiency and effectiveness this long-term planning should be integrated with existing short-term plans, thus creating an Integrated Coastal Zone Management programme. As a starting point for coastal zone management, the assessment of a country's or region's vulnerability to accelerated sea level rise is of utmost importance. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a common methodology for this purpose. Studies carried out according to this Common Methodology have been compared and combined, from which general conclusions on local, regional and global vulnerability have been drawn, the latter in the form of a Global Vulnerability Assessment. In order to address the challenge of coping with climate change and accelerated sea level rise, it is essential to foresee the possible impacts, and to take precautionary action. Because of the long lead times needed for creating the required technical and institutional infrastructures, such action should be taken in the short term. Furthermore, it should be part of a broader coastal zone management and planning context. This will require a holistic view, shared by the different institutional levels that exist, along which different needs and interests should be balanced.

Essential elements of integrated coastal zone management

The coastal zone comprises a narrow strip of coastal lowlands and a vast area of coastal waters. While the coastal zone represents approximately 10% of the earth's surface, its coastal lowlands are inhabited by more than 50% of the world population. The coastal zone has become the major site for extensive and diverse economic activities. Many of the coastal developing countries depend heavily on the scarce coastal resources for their economic growth.

Assessment of coastal zone sustainable development: A case study of Yantai, China

The assessment of sustainable development is a challenging task as its measuring is rather complex without a mature framework. In this paper, as a case study, a coastal city of China-Yantai was assessed for sustainable development in the period from 1998 to 2007. We used a methodological framework based on 36 indicators and three composite indices from the dimensions of environment, economy and society subsystems. The assessment results indicated that Yantai was almost in the potentially unsustainable development or intermediate sustainable development, except in 1998 and in 2007. Accordingly, the progress of sustainable development was divided into two stages in the light of the relative changes of three subsystems. Some relevant issues, such as natural capital, GPI vs. GDP in sustainable development assessment were discussed. Finally, an uncertainty analysis was also given in the assessment. In conclusion, the sustainable development in Yantai had experienced a shift from environment-based to social-economic-based in the past 10 years. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of Local Magnetic Fields on P-Doped Si Floating Zone Melting Crystal Growth in Microgravity

A two-dimensional axisymmetric numerical model is presented to study the influence of local magnetic fields on P-doped Si floating zone melting crystal growth in microgravity. The model is developed based on the finite difference method in a boundary-fitted curvilinear coordinate system. Extensive numerical simulations are carried out, and parameters studied include the curved growth interface shape and the magnetic field configurations. Computed results show that the local magnetic field is more effective in reducing the impurity concentration nonuniformity at the growth interface in comparison with the longitudinal magnetic field. Moreover, the curved growth interface causes more serious impurity concentration nonuniformity at the growth interface than the case with a planar growth interface.

Effect of non-uniform magnetic field on crystal growth by floating-zone method in microgravity

The magnetic damping effect of the non-uniform magnetic field on the floating-zone crystal growth process in microgravity is studied by numerical simulation. The results show that the non-uniform magnetic field with designed configuration can effectively reduce the flow near the free surface and then in the melt zone. At the same time, the designed magnetic field can improve the impurity concentration non-uniformity along the solidification interface. The primary principles of the magnetic field configuration design are also discussed.

Numerical simulation of magnetic field design for damping thermocapillary convection in a floating half-zone

The magnetic fields produced by electrical coils are designed for damping the the thermocapillary convection in a floating half-zone in microgravity. The fields are designed specially to reduce the flow near the free surface and then in the melt zone by adjusting the longitudinal coil positions close to the melt zone. The effects of the designed magnetic fields on reducing the flow velocity and temperature distribution non-uniformity in the melt zone are stronger than those of the case of an uniform longitudinal magnetic field obtained by numerical simulation, particularly at the melt-rod interface. It brings fundamental insights into the heat and mass transfer control at the solidification interface by the magnetic field design for crystal growth by the floating full-zone method.

Experimental Study on the Transition Process to the Oscillatory Thermocapillary Convections in a Floating Half Zone

The transition process of the thermocapillary convection from a steady and axisymmetric mode to the oscillatory mode in a liquid bridge with a fixed aspect ratio and varied volume ratio was studied experimentally. To ensure the surface tension to play an important role in the ground-based experiment, the geometrical configuration of the liquid bridge was so designed that the associated dynamic Bond number Bd ≈ 1. The velocity fields were measured by Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) technique to effectively distinguish the different flow modes during the transition period in the experiments. Our experiments showed that as the temperature difference increased the slender and fat bridges presented quite different features on the evolution in their flow feature: for the former the thermocapillary convection transformed from a steady and axisymmetric pattern directly into an oscillatory one; but for the latter a transition flow status, characterized by an axial asymmetric steady convection, appeared before reaching the oscillatory mode. Experimental observations agree with the results of numerical simulations and it is obvious that the volume of liquid bridge is a sensitive geometric parameter. In addition, at the initial stage of the oscillation, for the former a rotating oscillatory convection with azimuthal wave number m = 1 was observed while for the latter a pulsating oscillatory pattern with azimuthal wave number m = 2 emerged, and then with further increase of the temperature difference, the pulsating oscillatory convection with azimuthal wave number m = 2 evolved into a rotating oscillatory pattern with azimuthal wave number m = 2.

Study on Flow Patterns of Oscillatory Thermocapillary Convection In Floating Half Zone by PIV

The velocity fields of oscillatory convection have been measured using the techniques of Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) in a liquid bridge of half floating zone with small typical scales of a few millimeters for emphasizing the thermocapillary effect in comparison with the effect of buoyancy. The flow patterns of the oscillatory flow have been studied experimentally in a liquid bridge. The flow patterns in the liquid bridge are classified with mode numbers according to oscillatory flow characteristics. Results of the experiment show that the mode depends on the aspect ratio as well as the volume ratio of the liquid bridge. The experimental results are helpful for studying the structure of flow at the onset of oscillatory thermocapillary convection in a liquid bridge.

Investigation on Depth of Heat Affected Zone of Discharge Spot by High Repetitive Rate YAG Laser-Induced Discharge Texturing

It is known that the press formability and the elongation of laser textured sheet are improved, and the service life of textured roll is longer than that of the un-textured roll due to hardening of the treated surface. One of the goals to develop high repetitive rate YAG laser-induced discharge texturing (LIDT) is to get deeper hardening zone. By observing and measuring cross-section of LIDT spots in different discharge conditions, it is found that the single-crater, which is formed by the discharge conditions of anode, which is covered by an oil film and with rectangular current waveform, has the most depth of heat affected zone (HAZ) comparing with other crater shapes when discharge energy is the same. The depth of HAZ is mainly depends on pulse duration when the discharge spot is single-crater. The results are analyzed.

A simulation model of a floating half zone

A simulation model of a floating half zone was suggested by steady numerical simulation and experiment respectively, in the previous papers [Q.S. Chen, W.R. Hu, Int. J. Mass Heat Transfer 40 (1997) 757; J.H. Han, Y. Ar, R. Zhou, W.R. Hue, Int. J. Mass Heat Transfer 40 (1997) 2671]. In the present paper, the simulation model is studied by using the method of unsteady and three-dimensional numerical simulation, and the transient process from steady convection to oscillatory convection is especially analyzed. Comparison of onsets of oscillation for both simulation model and the usual model were obtained, and the results show that the critical Marangoni number of the simulation model is obviously smaller than that of the usual model for the same slender liquid bridge. This implies that the usual model of a floating half zone gives a lower estimation on the onset of oscillation for floating zone convection.

Magnetic field design for floating zone crystal growth

The magnetic fields produced by electrical coils are designed for P-doped Si crystal growth in a floating full zone in microgravity environment. The fields are designed specially to reduce the how near the free surface and then in the melt zone by adjusting the coil positions near the melt zone. The effects of the designed magnetic fields on reducing the Row velocity and the non-uniformity of the concentration distribution in the melt zone are better than those of the case of a uniform longitudinal magnetic field, obtained by numerical simulation. It is expected to improve the radial macro-segregation and reduce the convection in the crystal growth at the same time by using the designed magnetic field.

Transition to Chaos in the Floating Half Zone Convection

The transition process from steady convection to chaos is experimentally studied in thermocapillary convections of floating half zone. The onset of temperature oscillations in the liquid bridge of floating half zone and further transitions of the temporal convective behaviour are detected by measuring the temperature in the liquid bridge. The fast Fourier transform reveals the frequency and amplitude characteristics of the flow transition. The experimental results indicate the existence of a sequence of period-doubling bifurcations that culminate in chaos. The measured Feigenbaum numbers are delta(2) = 4.69 and delta(4) = 4.6, which are comparable with the theoretical asymptotic value delta = 4.669.

Two bifurcation transitions of the floating half zone convection in a fat liquid bridge of larger Pr

The transient process of the thermocapillary convection was obtained for the large Pu floating half zone by using the method of three-dimensional and unsteady numerical simulation. The convection transits directly from steady and axisymmetric state to oscillatory flow for slender liquid bridge, and transits first from steady and axisymmetric convection to the steady and non-axisymmetric convection, then, secondly to the oscillatory convection for the fatter liquid bridge. This result implies that the volume of liquid bridge is not only a sensitive critical parameter for the onset of oscillation, but also relates to the new mechanism for the onset of instability in the floating half zone convection even in case of large Prandtl number fluid.

A new model of thermocapillary convection in floating half zone

A new model of thermocapillary convection in floating half zone was suggested in the present paper. The liquid bridge floats between two co-axis rods, the lower rod consists of metal with constant temperature and the upper rod consists of thermal insulating materials, where the normal gradient of temperature is nearly zero. In this case, the new model is relatively closer to simulate a half part of floating full zone in microgravity environment in comparison with the usual model of floating half zone. Basic features of the new model were studied by both numerical simulation and experiments, and the comparisons with the usual model were also discussed.