Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

El Nino phenomenon in simple ocean data assimilation data

To study how the air and sea interact with each other during El Nino/La Nina onsets, extended associate pattern analysis (EAPA) is adopted with the simple ocean data assimilation (SODA) data. The results show that as El Nino/La Nina's parents their behaviors are quite different, there does not exist a relatively independent tropical atmosphere but does exist a relatively independent tropical Pacific Ocean because the air is heated from the bottom surface instead of the top surface and of much stronger baroclinic instability than the sea and has a very large inter-tropical convergence zone covering the most tropical Pacific Ocean. The idea that it is the wester burst and wind convergence, coming from middle latitudes directly that produce the seawater eastward movement and meridional convergence in the upper levels and result in the typical El Nino sea surface temperature warm signal is confirmed again.

Modeling and Simulation of Liquid Pulsed Particulate Fluidized Beds

Pulsed fluidization is of considerable interest in process engineering for improving fluidization quality. Quantitative understanding of the pulsed two-phase flow behaviors is very important for proper design and optimum operation of such contactors. The

Shock Tube Studies on the Nonequlibrium Electron Affinity Kinetics of Fluorine Atom at High Temperatures

To study electron affinity kinetics, a shock tube method was applied, in which the test gas was ionized by a reflected shock wave and subsequently quenched by a strong rarefaction wave. As the quenching speed of 106 K/s was reached, a nonequilibrium ionization-recombination process occurred, which was dominated by ion recombination with electrons. A Langmuir electrostatic probe was used to monitor variation in the ion number density at the reflection shock region. The working state of the probe was analyzed...

激光光子压力

<正> 光是由无静止质量的基本粒子组成,而这些粒子能对物质施加压力的认识,从理论预测到实验证实经历了漫长的时间.早在1873年,苏格兰物理学家麦克斯韦在研究光的本质时,根据他的电磁波理论,断言了光对物质能施加压力,并且予言,这种力的大小取决于

Orientation preference and fractal character of short fatigue cracks in a weld metal

Short fatigue crack behaviour in a weld metal has been further investigated. The Schmid factor and the fractal dimension of short cracks on iso-stress specimens subjected to reversed bending have been determined and then applied to account for the distribution and orientation characteristics of short fatigue cracks. The result indicates that the orientation preference of short cracks is attributed to the large values of Schmid factor at relevant grains. The Schmid factors of most slip systems, which produced short cracks, are less than or equal to 0.4. Crack length measurements reveal that short crack path, compared to that of long crack, possesses a more stable and relatively larger value of fractal dimension. This is regarded as one of the typical features of short cracks.

外部流场对激光加热运动目标影响的数值模拟

考虑激光与运动目标相互作用的基础上。利用有限元方法分析了亚声速条件下运动目标在激光辐照全过程的温度场和热应力场的分布与演化规律。结果表明：高速流场的存在，导致了明显的冷却效应；加热过程中目标材料出现了屈服，导致激光熄灭后结构内出现残余应力和变形；激光辐照区边缘产生很高的温度梯度和应力梯度，并且由于气流影响，受辐照区域前后两端应力分布不对称。

负啁啾高强度飞秒脉冲在正常色散材料中传输特性研究

利用块状正常色散材料作非线性介质，实验研究了负啁啾强激光飞秒脉冲在正常色散材料的传输过程中，脉冲波形及频谱随入射脉冲能量的变化特性．实验发现，负啁啾脉冲经过材料后激光光谱在被整形和压缩的同时，脉冲宽度也被压缩．实验获得的压缩脉冲宽度短于相等光谱宽度下的双曲正割转换极限脉冲宽度。数值模拟结果显示，在实验条件下模拟结果具有同样的变化特性．

体布拉格光栅外腔半导体激光器光谱特性研究

用体布拉格光栅(VBG)作为反馈元件与瓦级半导体激光器(LD)以及快轴准直柱透镜构成一个可以将半导体激光器的工作波长稳定在体布拉格光栅布拉格波长处的外腔激光器。测量了体布拉格光栅外腔激光器的波长稳定性与其工作电流、热汇温度、激光束准直装置等因素的关系。分析了波长稳定效果与半导体激光器增益谱特性、外腔结构参量等因素的关系。研究表明,在相同的工作电流、热汇温度下,当准直柱透镜直径为0.4 mm时的波长稳定效果较好;在此情况下,当热汇温度控制在30 ℃,工作电流从0.5 A增加到1.5 A的测量范围内,以及当工

Preparation of Y1.84La0.16O3 nanopowders by oxalate co-precipitation method

Nanopowder of Y(1.84)mLa(0.16)O(3) was prepared by oxalate co-precipitation method. The powder was characterized by TG-DTA, XRD and TEM. The results show that the precursor is Re-2 (NO3)(2) (C2O4)(2)center dot 2H(2)O (Re=Y, La), and the Y1.84La0.16O3 nanopowders produced by calcining the precursor at 1000 degrees C for 4 h are 20 similar to 40 nm spherical particles and well dispersed. The powders were with high sintering activity and could be fabricated to transparent ceramic without additive at 1450 similar to 1550 degrees C in H-2 atmosphere for 3 hours. The total transmission of the transparent ceramic could reach 80%.

豆科黄华属（Thermopsis）的系统学研究

本文重点分析了黄华属植物的形态变异，并结合微形态、植物地理及分子生物学的证据，对全世界黄华属植物首次进行了全面的分类学修订，承认全世界黄华属植物共5组、21种、6变种。对Czefranova (1954，1958，1970，1976)的分类系统／2亚属、4组、38种，及其他学者描述的种进行了修正。对7个种进行了归并处理：确认了3个种的分类学地位;新组合了两个变种;建立了1个新组。 考证了属的正确模式及一些种的合法学名。长期被误用的本属模式 Thermopsis lanceolata R．Br. (1811)实际上是根据Sophora lupinoides L．(1973)同 模式（轮生花）建立的一个多余名，这个命名法上的异名应当被废弃而代之以T. lupinoides (L.) Link (1821)。而长期被误用的东北亚互生花黄华的正确名称应当是T. fabacea (Pall.) DC. (1825). 本文首次较全面的研究了黄华属植物的地理学。黄华属基本上为东亚-北美间断分布属。东亚地区是黄华属植物的现代分布及分化中心。伊朗-土兰地区及落基山地区是次生分布和次生演化中心，该属的多倍性现象也出现在这二地区，而且自此二地区曾经描述了许多新分类群，同时也被归并了很多，然而，最近的分子生物学证据又揭示，在这些地区曾被归并的一些分类群应是不同的实体，这似乎也在提醒分类学家，对这些物种分化较活跃的区域进行分类处理时，无论是描述新分类群，抑还归并或新组合旧分类群都应持谨慎态度。 据黄华属植物的现代地理分布、形态演化趋势、现有的化石及地质历史资料推测，黄华属植物在中新世之前早已存在，并且很可能在早第三纪或晚白垩纪，起源于劳亚古陆上一个含羽扇豆生物碱的古槐成员。两大陆分离后，在不同的促进种化因子的影响下，形成了各自的演化格局。根据黄华属植物的系统演化趋势、原始类群的分布式样及特有现象分析，东亚地区的中国，日本亚区和北美的阿把拉契亚省可能是可能是本属现存植物的原始类型保存中心。