财政预测模型研究及应用

采用多种科学预测方法与财政经济实际相结合的方式建立了一个综合的财政收支系统动力学模型．这个模型集中了时间序列分析模型，灰色系统预测模型的参数综合性强和系统动力学模型结构分明，用动态反馈方式预测系统发展变化的特点，对东北两大城市预算内财政收支“八五”计划指标进行了全面定量的预测与分析，得到了很好的应用效果。

角速率陀螺在海洋机器人“海人1号”航向控制中的应用

本文给出“海人1号”航向控制的流体动力学模型、航向控制系统结构,海上实验记录以及角速率陀螺作用原理和分析。这将对从事海洋机器人控制系统的设计研究,有一定的考参值价。

整合多尺度地球物理数据建立高分辨率储层模型的方法及应用

Most of the fields in China are in the middle-late development phase or are mature fields. It becomes more and more difficult to develop the remaining oil/gas. Therefore, it is import to enhance oil/gas recovery in order to maintain the production. Fine scale modeling is a key to improve the recovery. Incorporation of geological, seismic and well log data to 3D earth modeling is essential to build such models. In Ken71 field, well log, cross-well seismic and 3D seismic data are available. A key issue is to build 3D earth model with these multi-scales data for oil field development.In this dissertation, studies on sequential Gaussian-Bayesian simulation have been conducted. Its comparison with cokriging and sequential Gaussian simulation has been performed. The realizations generated by sequential Gaussian-Bayesian simulation have higher vertical resolution than those generated by other methods. Less differences between these realization and true case are observed. With field data, it is proved that incorporating well log, cross-well seismic and 3D seismic into 3D fine scale model is reliable. In addition, the advantages of sequential Gaussian-Bayesian simulation and conditions for input data are demonstrated. In Ken71 field, the impedance difference between sandstone and shale is small. It would be difficult to identify sandstone in the reservoir with traditional impedance inversion. After comparisons of different inversion techniques, stochastic hillclimbing inversion was applied. With this method, shale content inversion is performed using 3D seismic data. Then, the inverted results of shale content and well log data are incorporated into 3D models. This demonstrates a procedure to build fine scale models using multi scale seismic data, especially 3D seismic amplitude volume.The models generated through sequential Gaussian-Bayesian simulation have several advantages including: (1) higher vertical resolution compared with 3D inverted acoustic impedance (AI); (2) consistency of lateral variation as 3D inverted AI; (3) more reliability due to integration cross-well seismic data. It is observed that the precision of the model depends on the 3D inversion.

基于盆地地下水模型与山区地表水模型耦合的济源盆地地下水模拟研究

The aim of this study is to increase the precision of groundwater modeling. The way is use the distributed model calculate the mountain basin groundwater lateral discharge and the river runoff. With appropriate technique help, the groundwater model can couple the distributed model results. This paper’s study object is makeing the distributed hydrological model HEC-HMS coupled to the popular groundwater model Visual MODFLOW. The application example is Jiyuan basin which is a typical basin of North China. HEC-HMS can calculate the surface runoff and subsurface runoff at mountain-pass. The subsurface runoff can turn to recharge well straightly. The water level - runoff course and Trial method is used to back analyze the parameters of surface runoff to Visual MODFLOW. So the distributed hydrological model can coupled to the groundwater model. The research proved that base on couple the distributed surface water model the groundwater model’s results are notability improved. The example is Jiyuan basin where use the distributed model coupled to the groundwater model. On the base of the coupled model applied to Jiyuan basin groundwater modeling. The paper estimates the groundwater change in the study area. Then, by use the water resources integrated planning results, the article calculate the basin groundwater can be development and utilization quantity and potential.

电离层参量M(3000)F2和hmF2的经验正交函数方法建模研究

The ionospheric parameter M(3000)F2 (the so-called transmission factor or the propagation factor) is important not only in practical applications such as frequency planning for radio-communication but also in ionospheric modeling. This parameter is strongly anti-correlated with the ionospheric F2-layer peak height hmF2，a parameter often used as a key anchor point in some widely used empirical models of the ionospheric electron density profile (e.g., in IRI and NeQuick models). Since hmF2 is not easy to obtain from measurements and M(3000)F2 can be routinely scaled from ionograms recorded by ionosonde/digisonde stations distributed globally and its data has been accumulated for a long history, usually the value of hmF2 is calculated from M(3000)F2 using the empirical formula connecting them. In practice, CCIR M(3000)F2 model is widely used to obtain M(3000)F2 value. However, recently some authors found that the CCIR M(3000)F2 model has remarkable discrepancies with the measured M(3000)F2, especially in low-latitude and equatorial regions. For this reason, the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) research community proposes to improve or update the currently used CCIR M(3000)F2 model. Any efforts toward the improvement and updating of the current M(3000)F2 model or newly development of a global hmF2 model are encouraged. In this dissertation, an effort is made to construct the empirical models of M(3000)F2 and hmF2 based on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis combined with regression analysis method. The main results are as follows: 1. A single station model is constructed using monthly median hourly values of M(3000)F2 data observed at Wuhan Ionospheric Observatory during the years of 1957–1991 and compared with the IRI model. The result shows that EOF method is possible to use only a few orders of EOF components to represent most of the variance of the original data set. It is a powerful method for ionospheric modeling. 2. Using the values of M(3000)F2 observed by ionosondes distributed globally, data at grids uniformly distributed globally were obtained by using the Kriging interpolation method. Then the gridded data were decomposed into EOF components using two different coordinates: (1) geographical longitude and latitude; (2) modified dip (Modip) and local time. Based on the EOF decompositions of the gridded data under these two coordinates systems, two types of the global M(3000)F2 model are constructed. Statistical analysis showed that the two types of the constructed M(3000)F2 model have better agreement with the observational M(3000)F2 than the M(3000)F2 model currently used by IRI. The constructed models can represent the global variations of M(3000)F2 better. 3. The hmF2 data used to construct the hmF2 model were converted from the observed M(3000)F2 based on the empirical formula connecting them. We also constructed two types of the global hmF2 model using the similar method of modeling M(3000)F2. Statistical analysis showed that the prediction of our models is more accurate than the model of IRI. This demonstrated that using EOF analysis method to construct global model of hmF2 directly is feasible. The results in this thesis indicate that the modeling technique based on EOF expansion combined with regression analysis is very promising when used to construct the global models of M(3000)F2 and hmF2. It is worthwhile to investigate further and has the potential to be used to the global modeling of other ionospheric parameters.

含激电信息的人工源频率域电磁法正演研究——大功率人工固定源极低频电磁法激电效应预研究

ABSTRACT Base on Dias-model, this paper study the forward modeling to IP response with MT souece and CSAMT source with the author’s program，that is to provide the theoretical basis for extracting the IP information from the far field, near field and transition field in extremely low frequency electromagnetic sounding with artificial strong fixed source signal. The outline of the paper is as follows. Firstly, review the history of the complex-resistivity-model, and analyses the bases for choosing Dias model; meanwhile, effects and responses of each parameter in Dias model are analyses. Afterward, study the forward modeling to 1D layered model with MT source, numerically simulate the IP effects of classic geoelectric objects; Find the clear anomaly and relationship between the peak value of the amplitude anomaly ratio and phase anomaly difference with and without IP parameters to be considered within a frequency range. On the basis of the modeling of MT, Study the CSAMT modeling with a dipole-source, obtain the anomaly responses and the relationship between anomaly and characters of object. Base on the infinite line source, study the 2D IP effect of geoelectric objects with 2D modeling. Calculate the response with different source distance, object depth and different wall rock resistivity systemically. Finally, conclude the viewpoints and give the discussion of the result, and point out the lack of this research also.

油气流线模拟方法研究与系统研制

The modeling of petroleum flow path (petroleum charging) and the detail of corresponding software development are presented in this paper, containing principle of petroleum charging, quantitative method, and practical modeling in two oil fields. The Modeling of Petroleum Flow Path is based on the result of basin modeling, according to the principle of petroleum migrating along the shortest path from the source to trap, Petroleum System Dynamics (Prof. Wu Chonglong, 1998), the concept of Petroleum Migration and Dynamic Accumulation (Zhou Donyan, Li Honhui, 2002), etc. The simulation is done combing with all parameters of basin, and considering the flow potential, non-uniformity of source and porous layer. It's the extending of basin modeling, but not belong to it. It is a powerful simulating tool of petroleum system, and can express quantitatively every kind of geology elements of a petroleum basin, and can recuperate dynamically the geology processes with 3D graphics. At result, we can give a result that the petroleum flow shows itself the phenomena of main path, and without using the special theory such as deflection flow in fractures(Tian Kaiming, 1989, 1994, Zhang Fawang, Hou Xingwei, 1998), and flow potential(England, 1987). The contour map of petroleum flow quantitative show clearly where the coteau - dividing slot is, and which convergence region are the main flow path of petroleum, and where is the favorable play of petroleum. The farsighted trap can be determined if there are enough information about structural diagram and can be evaluated, such as the entrapment extent, spill point, area, oil column thickness, etc. Making full use of the result of basin modeling with this new tool, the critical moment and scheme of the petroleum generation and expulsion can be showed clearly. It's powerful analysis tool for geologist.

克拉2异常高压气藏地质特征及开发技术研究

Kela-2 gas field in Tarim Basin is the main supply source for West-to-East Pipeline project, also the largest abnormally-pressured gas field discovered in China currently. The geological characterization, fine geological modeling and field development plan are all the world-class difficult problems. This work includes an integrated geological and gas reservoir engineering study using advanced technology and approaches, the scientific development plan of Kela-2 gas field as well as the optimizations of the drilling, production and surface schemes. Then, it's expected that the Kela-2 gas field can be developed high-efficiently.Kuche depression is one part of the thrust belt of the South Tianshan Mountains, Kela-2 field is located at the Kelasu structural zone in the north of Kuche depression. The field territory is heavily rugged with deeply cut gullies, complex geological underground structure, variable rock types, thrust structure development. Therefore, considerable efforts have been made to develop an integrated technique to acquire, process and interpret the seismic data in complicated mountain region. Consequently a set of seismic-related techniques in the complicated mountain region has been developed and successfully utilized to interpret the structure of Kela-2 gas field.The main reservoir depositional system of Kela 2 gas field is a platform - fan delta - braided river system. The reservoir rocks are medium-fine and extremely fine grained sandstones with high structure maturity and low composition maturity. The pore system structure is featured by medium-small pore, medium-fine throat and medium-low assortment. The reservoir of Kela-2 gas field is characteristic of medium porosity and medium permeability. The pay zone is very thick and its lateral distribution is stable with a good connection of sand body. The overpressure is caused mainly by the strongly tectonic squash activities, and other factors including the later rapid raise and compartment of the high-pressure fluid, the injection of high-pressure fluid into the reservoir.Based on the deliverability tests available, the average binomial deliverability equation is provided applicable for the overall field. The experimental results of rock stress-sensitive tests are employed to analyze the change trend of petrophysical properties against net confining stress, and establish the stress-based average deliverability equation. The results demonstrate the effect of rock deformation on the deliverability is limited to less than 5% in the early period of Kela-2 gas field, indicating the insignificant effect on deliverability of rock deformation.In terms of the well pattern comparisons and development planning optimizations, it is recommended that the producers should be located almost linearly along the structural axis. A total of 9 producers have a stable gas supply volume of 10.76 BCMPY for 17 years. For Kela-2 gas field the total construction investment is estimated at ￥7,697,690,000 RMB with the internal earning rate of 25.02% after taxation, the net present value of ￥7,420,160,000 RMB and the payback period of 5.66 years. The high profits of this field development project are much satisfactory.

亲子依恋对大学生人际关系影响的性别效应

Parent-child attachment refers to the emotional bond that forms between parent and child, which has great influences on the child’s interpersonal development. Present study applied both correlation method and secure attachment memory activation method to investigate the “gender relation effects” of parent-child attachment’s influences on college students’ close relationships, general attachment representation, and emotion and social loneliness. The basic hypotheses on “gender relation” were set as: “same-sex” parent-child attachment has more influences on college students’ “same-sex” interpersonal relationships, while “opposite-sex” parent-child attachment has more influences on college students’ “opposite-sex” interpersonal relationships. Major findings includes: 1. There was weak correlation of attachment security between father-child and mother-child relationships. The findings indicated that, among college students, the security of “opposite-sex” parent-child attachment representation is higher to some extent than that of “same-sex” parent-child attachment representation. 2. There were significant correlations between parent-child attachment and college students’ attachment anxiety in close relationships. Major findings indicated that “opposite-sex” parent-child attachment security negatively predicts college students’ attachment anxiety in both “same-sex” and “opposite-sex” close relationships. 3. Gender relation effects were significant in the correlations between parent-child attachment and college students’ level of avoidant attachment representation. “Same-sex” parent-child attachment security positively predicted avoidant attachment level in college students’ “same-sex” close relationships, while “opposite-sex” parent-child attachment security positively predicted avoidant attachment level in “opposite-sex” close relationships. 4. Parent-child attachment security memory activation had significant influences on college students’ general attachment representation, in which gender relation effects indicated that: the memory activation of father-child attachment security significantly increases participants’ security of self-model in general attachment representation to “male others”; while the memory activation of mother-child attachment security significantly increase participants’ security of others-model in general attachment representation to “female others”. 5. For male college students, father-son attachment security negatively predicted their emotion and social loneliness. For female college students, father-daughter attachment security negatively predicted their emotion loneliness, while mother-daughter attachment security negatively predicted their social loneliness. Attachment security memory activation had significant influences on college students’ social loneliness, in which gender relation effects was confirmed in that only father-child attachment security memory activation significantly decreased male participants’ level of social loneliness. The results indicated that gender relation effects are significant in the influences of parent-child attachment on college students’ interpersonal relationship representations, especially when the level of avoidant of attachment in college students’ close relationships was predicted by parent-child attachment representation, and when the memory activation of parent-child attachment influenced college students’ general attachment representation. The present study confirmed to some extent that gender relation consistency exists in attachment representations among different interpersonal relations, and serves as a new model for analysis of gender differences in the research fields. In the present study, however, gender relation effects were not confirmed in all the interpersonal relationship representations, which indicated the complexity in the problems of gender differences in the research fields of close relationships.

国有企业管理者裁员决策特征及其对留岗者心理影响的研究

In China, orgnizational change and downsizing are the primary topics studied in I/O psychology and Human Resource Management. Due to the great need in reality, both theorists and practitioners raised the same questions: Does downsizing increase the organizational performance? What is the relationship between organizational downsizing strategies and survivors' psychological reations? Which factors influence managers' downsizing decision-making most? How can managers manage the process successfully? The purpose of this study is trying to answer these questions, and then to establish the downsizing decision-making model of China's SOE (State owned enterprise) managers. The hypothetical model of SOE managers' downsizing decision-making was put forward, based on a tremendous amount of literature on downsizing decision-making, especially on the downsizing decision-making model built by B. Shaw, and also based on the results of the interviews conducted to the SOE managers who have the downsizing decision-making experiences. In order to test and verify the model, 322 SOE managers were investigated by a questionnaire study. And the statistic results supported the hypothetical downsizing decision-making model. Further, 259 survivors (those who are still working in the SOEs) from 7 downsized SOEs and 1 non-downsizing SOE, were also investigated by a questionnaire study. The statistic results also supported the hypothetical downsizing decision-making model. A subsequent case study was performed upon one downsized SOE; and a deliberate focus group interview study within 6 SOE mangers from another downsized SOE was also conducted. Both fundings from the two studies surported the hypothetical model again. Thus, China's SOE managers' downsizing decision-making model was established. This China's SOE managers' downsizing decision-making model suggests the following: Firstly, the characteristics of managers'downsizing decision-making were the center of the model. Those characteristics displayed during the process of the downsizing decision planning, the participation of downsizing decision-making and the communication concerning downsizing events, were influenced by managers' sense of crisis, controlling factors out of the organization and the managing experience within it. Especially, the latter two factors were more important. Secondly, in downsizing decision-making problems, the perceived crisis of China's SOE managers was mainly influenced by the outer factors, esp. the controlling factors from the government or the high authorities, but not by the inner factors including manufacturing management, HRM skills and organizational competition strategies. Thirdly, survivors'psychological reactions (including job satisfaction, job motivation, team working cooperation, etc) were mainly influenced by the characteristics of the managers' downsizing decision-making, at the same time, also by the outer factors (including controlling and social security factors) and the inner factors (including competition strategy and HRM skills). Finally, according to the model and the results from this study, the conclusions were reached in the followings: The stronger the controlling effort upon the SOE managers, the worse the effect displayed during the downsizing process. And in order to improve the effect and quality of downsizing decision-making, SOE managers need a lot of training to ameliorate their competencies such as competition strategies and HRM skills.

在材料研制中的连续介质细观力学有限元建模现状评论

评述了机械载荷下材料力学行为有限元模拟的先进技术。分析了考虑材料微观及细观结构情况下，对材料变形、损伤、断裂进行模拟时各种方法的优缺点及发展前景。阐述了对材料行为模拟方法的发展，包括基本的及先进的方法，如体胞方法、真实结构模拟、粘结区模型等。分析了在先进新材料的开发中运用有限元方法的可能性。

全电介质脉宽压缩光栅的研究进展

超短脉冲超高能量激光器作为研究光和物质相互作用以及惯性约束聚变的手段而得到了广泛的应用。综述了应用于啁啾脉冲放大(CPA)系统的脉冲压缩光栅(PCG)的发展概况；分析和评述了脉宽压缩光栅的设计原理和制作工艺，并给出了脉宽压缩光栅的发展展望。实践和理论证明采用多层膜介质衍射光栅是实现高性能脉宽压缩光栅的一种优良的设计方案。

Xenopus RCOR2 (REST corepressor 2) interacts with ZMYND8, which is involved in neural differentiation

Regulation of neuronal gene expression is critical to nervous system development. REST (RE1-silencing transcription factor) regulates neuronal gene expression through interacting with a group of corepressor proteins including REST corepressors (RCOR). Here we show that Xenopus RCOR2 is predominantly expressed in the developing nervous system. Through a yeast two-hybrid screen, we isolated Xenopus ZMYND8 (Zinc finger and MYND domain containing 8) as an XRCOR2 interacting factor. XRCOR2 and XZMYND8 bind each other in co-immunoprecipitation assays and both of them can function as transcriptional repressors. XZMYND8 is co-expressed with XRCOR2 in the nervous system and overexpression of XZMYND8 inhibits neural differentiation in Xenopus embryos. These data reveal a RCOR2/ZMYND8 complex which might be involved in the regulation of neural differentiation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

围绕主题的同步交互学习支持方法的研究及工具开发

现代信息技术的发展促使世界各国进行教育信息化的改革。用IT技术辅助教学，特别是网络教学成为信息化教育的主要应用之一，它在提高教学效率的同时，缓解了知识爆炸对教育所带来的冲击，可是目前的IT技术只是用于加固传统落后的教学模式，不能从根本上改变现代教育不适应知识经济发展的社会需求，需要思考能建立适应信息社会人才需要的教育模式。 多尔的后现代课程观批判了现代主义课程观的弊端，例如封闭性、简单性和累积性，重视课程系统的开发性，课程内容的丰富性，注重学习环境的关联性。而网络教学突破教学时空的局限，提供丰富的教育资源，优化自主学习，强化教学互动。因此将后现代课程观理念融入网络教学的教学模式，用网络教学来支持后现代课程教学理念的实现，能为解决现代教学存在的问题开辟新的道路。 本文抓住后现代课程观的核心概念之一交互，通过分析目前网络教学中交互支持工具的现状，提出了围绕主题的同步交互学习支持的方法和工具实现，将后现代课程观中的交互理念与围绕主题学习的思想相结合，利用即时通信和个性化知识的再组织辅助学习中的交互过程，使得整个交互过程与学习内容紧密结合，提高了学习的效率和质量，体现了后现代课程观对课程教学的指导意义。

基于ISO9000和CMMs的需求开发和需求管理平台框架的研究

文章通过分析国内外当前软件需求开发和需求管理中的主要技术和存在的主要问题,并在研究ISO9000和SW-CMM、SA-CMM在软件需求开发和需求管理要求的基础上,结合现代软件工程的需求实现技术,提出了基于ISO9000和CMMs的需求开发和管理平台框架,用于指导国内软件组织软件需求开发和需求管理的实践工作。