活动构造区区域地壳稳定性研究——以金沙江水电梯级工程规划区为例

The study of regional crustal stability of active tectonic region basically includes analysis of recent activity of Earth's crust, single factor assessment, study of complexity, and comprehensive assessment of crust stability. In this thesis, some work are made as follows: · Based on abundant data from gravity field, aeromagnetic survey, magnetism, magnetotelluric deep sounding, remote sensing and geotectonic as well as earthquakes observed in recent years around this region and adjacent zones, we can get a through understanding about the structural features and activity of the earth's crust in Chuan-Dian region. The results from explosion earthquake and telluric electromagnetic sounding are consistent with the structural features of the crust manifested by the geophysical field. The data of deep geologic structures are important for us to work out a vivid three-dimensional model of the earth's crustal structure of the Jinsha River region. According to a synthesis, the author of this thesis proposes some indicators for dividing the faulted blocks. It can also be inferred that the movement of the Chuan-Dian faulted block, which is the relatively active part of southwestern China, is controlled by the boundary faults, and the intensive activity and deformation are concentrated along the boundaries of the block. · Mainly discussing respectively the mechanism and laws of active faults, earthquakes, and geological hazards activity, and their influences on the stability and security of engineering, also trying to probe into the way to assess the risk of single factor in this section. Especially with the method of fractal geometry, the thesis has discussed how to study the complexity of each factor. These geologic hazards which are distributed at the uppermost part of the crust in this region form a typical mountainous set of the active tectonic areas. The results of survey show that some slopes are liable- to -sliding with a weak layer of low shear strength. Occurrences of landslides are to a great extent related to local geological structures, in particular active faults. This is why numerous landslides have occurred simultaneously around the epicenter of a strong earthquake or the center of a strong rainfall, which are related to active faults. · The analysis of the crustal stability is based on a regional grid division, and a fuzzy comprehensive analysis method is used to determine the grade of the quality in each grid. The evaluation factors and their weights are taken from the results of the hierarchical analysis. The evaluation indexes consist of qualitative and quantitative ones. The qualitative ones can be quantified through the experts weighing system, while the quantitative ones can be obtained from statistical analysis. For quality grades, four levels are used: stable, essentially stable, sub-stable, and unstable. The results of the evaluation on Jinshajiang region demonstrate that the crustal stability become distinctly worse in the areas controlled by active deep faults. Therefore, detailed investigations on the active faulting and geologic hazards, include earthquake activity are especially necessary for those areas adjacent to the deep fault belts. On the bases of the data available and the survey results, we have made a preliminary assessment for the construction conditions and adaptability of every planned site in the middle or lower reaches of Jinsha River. Finally, the thesis prospected the vista of the study of crustal stability.

工程地质三维建模与可视化技术应用开发

Synthetic Geology Information System (SGIS) is an important constituent part of the theory of Engineering Geomechanics Mate-Synthetic (EGMS), and is the information system more suited for the collection, storage, management, analysis and processing to the information coming from engineering geology,' geological engineering and geotechnical engineering. Its contents involve various works and methods of the investigation, design, and construction in different stages of the geological engineering. Engineering geological and three-dimensional modeling and visualization is the fundamental part of the SGIS, and is a theory, method and technique by which, adopting the computer graphics and image processing techniques, the data derived from engineering geological survey and the calculated results obtained from the geomechanical numerical simulation and analysis are converted to the graphics and images displayed on the computer screen and can be processed interactively. In this paper, the significance and realizing approaches of the three-dimensional modeling and visualization for the complex geological mass in the engineering geology are discussed and the methods of taking advantage of the interpolation and fitting for the scattered and field-surveyed data to simulate the geological layers, such as the topography and earth surface, the groundwater table and the stratum boundary, are researched into. At the mean time, in mind the characteristics of the structure of the basic data for three-dimensional modeling, its visual management can be resolved into the engineering surveyed database management module, plot parameter management module and data output module and the requirement for basic data management can be fulfilled. In the paper, the establishment and development of the three-dimensional geological information system are probed tentatively, and an instance of three-dimensional visual Engineering Distribution Information System (EDIS), theConstruction Management Information System for an airport, in which the functions, such as the real-time browse among the three-dimensional virtual-reality landscapes of the airport construction from start to finish, the information query to the airport facility and the building in the housing district and the recording and playback of the animation sets for the browse and the takeoff and landing of the planes, is developed by applying the component-mode three-dimensional virtual-reality geological information system (GIS) software development kits (SDK), so the three-dimensional visual management platform is provided for the airport construction. Moreover, in the gaper, integrated with the three-dimensional topography visualization and its application in the Sichuan-Tibet Highways, the method of the digital elevation model (DEM) data collection from the topographic maps is described, and the three-dimensional visualization and the roaming about the terrain along the highway are achieved through computer language programming. Understanding to the important role played by the varied and unique topographical condition in the gestation and germination of the highly-dense, frequently-arising and severely-endangered geological hazards can be deepened.

抽水引起岩溶塌陷的机理及非线性预测研究

Karst collapse is one of the most important engineering geology hazards in Karst district, which seriously endangers the living of humankind and the environment around us, as well as the natural resources. Generally speaking, there exist three processes of overburden karst collapse:the formation of soil cavity, the expansion of soil cavity and the fall of the cavity roof. During these processes, groundwater is always the most active factor and plays a key role. Pumping will bring into the great change of groundwater in flow state, flowrate, frequency of fluctuation as well as hydraulic gradient and will speed the fall. Statistics shows that most of the man-made karst collapse are induced by pumping, so studying the mechanism of Karst collapse induced by pumping will provide theoretical base for the prediction and precaution of collapse. By theoretically studying the initial condition for the forming and expanding of a soil cavity, Spalling step by step the essential mechanism of Karst collapse induced by pumping is put forward. The catastrophe model for the collapse induced by pumping is set up to predict the fall probability of a cavity roof, and the criterion for the collapse is determined. Simultaneously, Karst collapse induced by pumping is predicted with manmade neural network theory. Finally, the appropriate precaution measurements for the collapse induced by pumping are provided. The creative opinions of the paper is following: The initial condition of forming a soil cavity is put forwarded as formula (4-1-5), (4-1-24),(4-1-25) and (4-1-27); which provide theoretical base for foreclosing the formation of a soil cavity and defending collapse. Spaliing step by step as the essential mechanism of Karst collapse induced by pumping is put forward. The spaliing force is defined as formula (4-2-15). The condition for the expanding of a soil cavity is that spaliing force is greater than tensile strength of soil. The stability of a soil cavity is first studied with catastrophe theory. It is concluded that the process of development up to ground collapse of a small cavity is continuous, however, the process of a big cavity is catastrophic. It is feasibility that the Karst collapse be predicted with manmade neural network theory as a new way.

中国大陆及邻区地震活动背景、环境触发与地震预测研究

This dissertation that includes most of the P. PH.D research work during 2001~2002 covers the large-scale distribution of continental earthquakes in mainland China, the mechanism and statistic features of grouped strong earthquakes related to the tidal triggering, some results in earthquake prediction with correlativity analysis methods, and the flushes from the two strong continental earthquakes in South Asia in 2001. Mainland China is the only continental sub-plate that is compressed by collision boundaries at its two sides, within which earthquakes are dispersive and distributed as seismic belts with different widths. The control capability of the continental block boundaries on the strong earthquakes and seismic hazards is calculated and analyzed in this dissertation. By mapping the distribution of the 31282 ML:3s2,0 earthquakes, I found that the depth of continental earthquakes depend on the tectonic zonings. The events on the boundaries of relatively integrated blocks are deep and those on the new-developed ruptures are shallow. The average depth of earthquakes in the West of China is about 5km deeper than that in the east. The western and southwestern brim of Tarim Basin generated the deepest earthquakes in mainland China. The statistic results from correlation between the grouped M7 earthquakes and the tidal stress show that the strong events were modulated by tidal stress in active periods. Taking Taiwan area as an example, the dependence of moderate events on the moon phase angles (￡>) is analyzed, which shows that the number of the earthquakes in Taiwan when D is 50° ,50° +90° and 50° +180° is more than 2 times of standard deviation over the average frequency at each degree, corresponding to the 4th, 12th and 19th solar day after the new moon. The probability of earthquake attack to the densely populated Taiwan island on the 4th solar day is about 4 times of that on other solar days. On the practice of earthquake prediction, I calculated and analyzed the temporal correlation of the earthquakes in Xinjinag area, Qinghai-Tibet area, west Yunnan area, North China area and those in their adjacent areas, and predicted at the end of 2000 that it would be a special time interval from 2001 to 2003, within which moderate to strong earthquakes would be more active in the west of China. What happened in 2001 partly validated the prediction. Within 10 months, there were 2 great continental earthquakes in south Asia, i.e., the M7.8 event in India on Jan 26 and M8.1 event in China on Nov. 14, 2001, which are the largest earthquake in the past 50 years both for India and China. No records for two great earthquakes in Asia within so short time interval. We should speculate the following aspects from the two incidences: The influence of the fallacious deployment of seismic stations on the fine location and focal mechanism determination of strong earthquakes must be affronted. It is very important to introduce comparative seismology research to seismic hazard analysis and earthquake prediction research. The improvement or changes in real-time prediction of strong earthquakes with precursors is urged. Methods need to be refreshed to protect environment and historical relics in earthquake-prone areas.

滚石机理及滚石灾害评价研究

Rockfall is a geological evolution process involving detachment of blocks or boulders from a slope face, then their free falls, bouncing, rolling or sliding, and finally deposition near the toe of the slope. Many facts indicate that the rockfall can cause hazards to peoples, and it can be regarded as a geological hazard. A rockfall event may only involve a boulder or rock, and also several ones. When there are peoples, buildings, or other man-made establishments within the scope of rockfall trajectory, losses will be possibly induced in tenns of human lives or damages to these facilities. Researches into mechanism, kinematics, dynamics, hazard assessment, risk analysis, and mitigation measures of rockfalls are extremely necessary and important. Occurrence of rockfall is controlled by a lot of conditions, mainly including topographical, geomorphic, geological ones and triggering factors. The rockfall especially in mountainous areas, has different origins, and occurs to be frequent, unexpected, uncertain, in groups, periodic and sectional. The characterization and classification of the rockfalls not only increase knowledge about rockfall mechanism, but also can instruct mitigation of the hazards. In addition, stability of potential rockfalls have various sensitivity to different triggering factors and changes of geometrical conditions. Through theoretical analyses, laboratory experiments and field tests, the author presents some back-analysis methods for friction coefficients of sliding and rolling, and restitution coefficients. The used input data can be obtained economically and accurately in the field. Through deep studies on hazard assessment methods and analysis of factors influencing rockfall hazard, this paper presents a new assessment methodology consisting of preliminary assessment and detailed one. From the application in a 430 km long stretch of the Highway, which is located between Paksho and Nyingtri in Tibet, the methodology can be applicable for the rockfall hazard assessment in complex and difficult terrains. In addition, risk analyses along the stretch are conducted by computing the probability of encountering rockfalls and life losses resulting from rockfall impacts. Rockfall hazards may be mitigated by avoiding hazardous areas, clearness of dangerous rocks, reinforcement, obstructing the rockfalls, leading the rockfalls, warning and monitoring for rockfalls, etc. Seen from present remedial level of rockfall hazards, different mitigation measures, economical and effective buffering units, monitoring tecliniques and consciousness of environmental protection for rockfall mitigations should be further developed.

滑坡和泥石流致灾条件叠合技术及风险分析-以川藏公路然乌至鲁朗段为例

As one part of national road No. 318, Sichuan-Tibet (Chengdu-Lasha) Highway is one of traffic life lines connecting Tibet municipality to the inland, which is very important to the economic development of Tibet. In addition, it is still an important national defence routeway, with extremely important strategic position on maintaining the stability and solidarity of Tibet municipality and consolidating national defence. Particular geological condition, terrain and landform condition and hydrometeorological condition induce large-scale debris flows and landslides (including landslips) and the like geological hazards frequently occur along the highway. High frequency geological hazards not only result in high casualties and a great property loss, but also block traffic at every turn, obstructing the Sichuan-Tibet highway seriously. On the basis of considerable engineering geological investigation and analysis to the relative studying achievements of predecessors, it is found that one of the dominating reason incurring landslides or debris flows again and again in a place is that abundant loose materials are accumulated in valleys and slopes along the highway. Taking landslides' and debris flows along Ranwu-Lulang section of Sichuan-Tibet highway as studying objects, the sources and cause of formation of loose accumulation materials in the studying area are analyzed in detail, the major hazard-inducing conditions, hazard, dynamic risk, prediction of susceptibility degree of landslides and debris flows, and the relations between landslides and debris flows and various hazard-inducing conditions are systematically researched in this paper. All of these will provide scientific foundation for the future highway renovating and reducing and preventing geological hazards. For the purpose of quantitatively analyzing landslide and debris flow hazards, the conception of entropy and information entropy are extended, the conception of geological hazard entropy is brought forward, and relevant mathematics model is built. Additionally, a new approach for the dynamic risk analysis of landslide and debris flow is put forward based on the dynamic characteristics of the hazard of hazard-inducings and the vulnerability of hazard-bearings. The formation of landslide and debris flow is a non-linear process, which is synthetically affected by various factors, and whose formation mechanics is extremely complex. Aiming at this question, a muli-factors classifying and overlapping technique is brought forward on the basis of engineering geomechanics meta-synthesis (EGMS) thought and approach, and relevant mathematics model is also built to predict the susceptibility degree of landslide or debris flow. The example analysis result proves the validity of this thought and approach. To studying the problem that whether the formation and space distribution of landslides and debris flows are controlled by one or several hazard-inducing conditions, the theme graphics of landslides and debris flows hazard and various hazard-inducing conditions are overlapped to determine the relationship between hazard and hazard-inducing conditions. On this basis, the semi-quantitative engineering zonation of the studying area is carried out. In addition, the overlapping analysis method of the hazard-indue ing conditions of landslides and debris flows based on "digital graphics system" is advanced to orderly organize and effectively manage the spatial and attributive data of hazard and hazard-inducing conditions theme graphics, and to realize the effectively combination of graphics, images and figures.

三峡库区滑坡的时空分布、成因及其预报模式

Landslides are widely distributed along the main stream banks of the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Especially with the acceleration of the human economic activities in the recent 30 years, the occurrence of landslide hazards in the local area trends to be more serious. Because of the special geological, topographic and climatic conditions of the Three Gorges areas, many Paleo-landslides are found along the gentle slope terrain of the population relocation sites. Under the natural condition, the Paleo-landslides usually keep stable. The Paleo-landslides might revive while they are influenced under the strong rainfall, water storage and migration engineering disturbance. Therefore, the prediction and prevention of landslide hazards have become the important problem involving with the safety of migration engineering of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.The past research on the landslides of the Three Gorges area is mainly concentrated on the stability analysis of individual landslide, and importance was little attached to the knowledge on the geological environment background of the formation of regional landslides. So, the relationship between distribution and evolution of landslides and globe dynamic processes was very scarce in the past research. With further study, it becomes difficult to explain the reasons for the magnitude and frequency of major geological hazards in terms of single endogenic or exogenic processes. It is possible to resolve the causes of major landslides in the Three Gorges area through the systematic research of regional tectonics and river evolution history.In present paper, based on the view of coupling of earth's endogenic and exogenic processes, the author researches the temporal and spacial distribution and formation evolution of major landslides(Volume^lOOX 104m3) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area through integration of first-hand sources statistics, .geological evolution history, isotope dating and numerical simulation method etc. And considering the main formation factors of landslides (topography, geology and rainfall condition), the author discusses the occurrence probability and prediction model of rainfall induced landslides.The distribution and magnitude of Paleo-landslides in the Three Gorges area is mainly controlled by lithology, geological structure, bank slope shape and geostress field etc. The major Paleo-landslides are concentrated on the periods 2.7-15.0 X 104aB.R, which conrresponds to the warm and wettest Paleoclimate stages. In the same time, the Three Gorges area experiences with the quickest crust uplift phase since 15.0X 104aB.P. It is indicated that the dynamic factor of polyphase major Paleo-landslides is the coupling processes of neotectonic movement and Quaternary climate changes. Based on the numerical simulation results of the formation evolution of Baota landslide, the quick crust uplift makes the deep river incision and the geostress relief causes the rock body of banks flexible. Under the strong rainfall condition, the pore-water pressure resulted from rain penetration and high flood level can have the shear strength of weak structural plane decrease to a great degree. Therefore, the bank slope is easy to slide at the slope bottom where shear stress concentrates. Finally, it forms the composite draught-traction type landslide of dip stratified rocks.The susceptibility idea for the rainfall induced landslide is put forward in this paper and the degree of susceptibility is graded in terms of the topography and geological conditions of landslides. Base on the integration with geological environment factors and rainfall condition, the author gives a new probabilistic prediction model for rainfall induced landslides. As an example from Chongqing City of the Three Gorges area, selecting the 5 factors of topography, lithology combination, slope shape, rock structure and hydrogeology and 21 kinds of status as prediction variables, the susceptibility zonation is carried out by information methods. The prediction criterion of landslides is established by two factors: the maximum 24 hour rainfall and the antecedent effective precipitation of 15 days. The new prediction model is possible to actualize the real-time regional landslide prediction and improve accuracy of landslide forecast.

民众社会风险认知的影响因素及作用机制

Risk perception is one of important subjects in management psychology and cognitive psychology. It is of great value in the theory and practice to investigate the social risk events that the public cares a lot especially in this social transition period. Furthermore, this study explored the factors that influence the risk perception and the results caused by risk perception. A survey including 30 hazards and 8 risk attributes was designed and distributed to about 3, 200 residents of 8 districts, Beijing. The major findings are listed as following： Firstly, combining the methods of system science and psychology, GAE program was used to indentify 7 groups of social risk events, such as national safe, government management, social stability, general mood of society, economic and finance, resources and environment & daily life problems. This study provided substance for the following studies and it was also a new attempt in research method which is of certain reference value for the related researches. Secondly, a scale of societal risk perception was designed and 2 factors were identified (Dread Risk & Unknown Risk). Reliability analysis, EFA and CFA show the reliability and validity of the societal risk questionnaire is good enough. The investigation using this scale showed that older participants and higher socioeconomic status perceived the societal hazards to be more threatening than did younger participants and lower socioeconomic status. However, there is no gender difference. Thirdly, structural equation model was used to analyze the influence factors and mechanism of societal risk perception. Risk taking, government support and social justice could influence societal risk perception directly. Government support moderated the relationship between government trust and societal risk perception. Societal risk perception influenced life satisfaction, public policy preferences and social development belief. Multi-group analysis was used to find out that the participants who have different socioeconomic status express different mechanism. Fourthly, the result of the research was used to explore the risk event of 2008 Olympic game. The results showed that government support and preparation of Olympic game influenced societal risk perception directly. Preparation moderated the relationship between government trust and risk perception. Risk perception influenced worry, effect of Olympic game and belief of successl. This result proved that risk perception could be used as an indicator. The indictor of risk perception was used to identify the characteristics of higher risk perception group. Finally, suggestions to the related decision were provide to the government.