SARS流行预测分析

表面上突如其来的SARS本质上却有极规律的内在发展演化机制,遵从初始缓慢增长、加速、减速和稳定终止四个阶段总体道路,自然和社会生活领域众多事件演化都符合这一规律,因而可以运用广义的Logistic生长模型进行描述.基于先期流行的广东SARS感染病例数据,以及尚未结束的北京、全国2003年SARS流行统计数据,借助于最优化分析技术,运用广义的Logistic生长模型对该事件演化特征参量进行了辨识;在此基础上,又借助于广义生长模型的特例--Gompertz函数进行了演化过程的预测,并与其他生长模型结果进行了比较.研究表明,生长模型模拟结果均与实际数据有很好的一致性,可以用来预测事件的发生演化过程,此次SARS事件堪称生长模型的经典实例.

过冷池沸腾落塔短时微重力实验研究

本文研制了一套控温池沸腾实验设备，利用中国科学院国家微重力实验室落塔开展了短时微重力环境下的过冷池沸腾传热实验研究。加热元件为长30mm、直径60μm的铂丝。实验工质为0.1MPa压力下过冷度为24℃的R113。在地面常重力和落塔短时微重力实验中，观测到核态沸腾和双模态过渡沸腾现象。对核态沸腾，微重力传热效果稍有增强而汽泡形态却呈现出剧烈变化。对双模态过渡沸腾，微重力下膜态沸腾部分有明显收缩，但热流密度值仍比常重力时减小20％。

Analysis of ingredient and heating value of municipal solid waste

Great differences between municipal solid wastes(MSW)produced at different places and different times in terms of such parameters as physical ingredient and heating value lead to difficulty in effective handling of MSW. In this paper, ingredient, heating value and their temporal varying trends of typical MSW in Beijing were continuously measured and analyzed. With consideration of the process in pyrolysis and incineration, correlation between physical ingredients and heating values was induced, favorable for evaluation of heating value needed in handling of MSW from simple analysis of physical ingredients of it.

Pool Boiling In Microgravity: Recent Results And Perspectives For The Project Depa-Sj10

Two research projects on pool boiling in microgravity have been conducted aboard the Chinese recoverable satellites. Ground-based experiments have also been performed both in normal gravity and in short-term microgravity in the Drop Tower Beijing. Steady boiling of R113 on thin platinum wires was studied with a temperature-controlled heating method, while quasi-steady boiling of FC-72 on a plane plate was investigated with an exponentially increasing heating voltage. In the first case, slight enhancement of heat transfer is observed in microgravity, while diminution is evident for high heat flux in the second one. Lateral motions of bubbles on the heaters are observed before their departure in microgravity. The surface oscillation of the merged bubbles due to lateral coalescence between adjacent bubbles drives it to detach from the heaters. The Marangoni effect on the bubble behavior is also discussed. The perspectives for a new project DEPA-SJ10, which has been planned to be flown aboard the Chinese recoverable satellite SJ-10 in the future, are also presented.

Large Scale Fabrication Of Periodical Bowl-Like Micropatterns Of Single Crystal Zno

Nanostructured ZnO materials are of great significance for their potential applications in photoelectronic devices, light-emitting displays, catalysis and gas sensors. In this paper, we report a new method to produce large area periodical bowl-like micropatterns of single crystal ZnO through aqueous-phase epitaxial growth on a ZnO single crystal substrate. A self-assembled monolayer of polystyrene microspheres was used as a template to confine the epitaxial growth of single crystal ZnO from the substrate, while the growth morphology was well controlled by citrate anions. Moreover, it was found that the self-assembled monolayer of colloidal spheres plays an important role in reduction of the defect density in the epitaxial ZnO layer. Though the mechanism is still open for further investigation, the present result indicates a new route to suppress the dislocations in the fabrication of single crystal ZnO film. A predicable application of this new method is for the fabrication of two-dimensional photonic crystal structures on light emitting diode surfaces.

Control dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome transmission

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a serious disease with many puzzling features. We present a simple, dynamic model to assess the epidemic potential of SARS and the effectiveness of control measures. With this model, we analysed the SARS epidemic data in Beijing. The data fitting gives the basic case reproduction number of 2.16 leading to the outbreak, and the variation of the effective reproduction number reflecting the control effect. Noticeably, our study shows that the response time and the strength of control measures have significant effects on the scale of the outbreak and the lasting time of the epidemic.

Critical serrated flow features during nanoindentation in La-based bulk metallic glasses

La57.6Al17.5(Cu,Ni)(24.9) and La64Al14(Cu,Ni)(22) bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) were prepared by copper-mould casting method. Plastic deformation behavior of the two BMGs at various loading rates was studied by nanoindentation. The results showed that the La57.6Al17.5(Cu,Ni)(24.9) BMG with a glass transition temperature of 423 K exhibited prominent serrated flow at low loading rates, whereas less pronounced serrated flow at high rates during nanoindentation. In contrast, the La64Al14(Cu,Ni)(22) BMG with a glass transition temperature of 401 K exhibited prominent serrated flow at high loading rates. The different rate dependency of serrated flow in the two La-based BMGs is related to the different glass transition temperature, and consequently the degree of viscous flow during indentation at room temperature. A smoother flow occurs in the alloy with relatively lower glass transition temperature, due to the relaxation of stress concentration.

Formation, microstructure and development of the localized shear deformation in low-carbon steels

An investigation has been made into the effect of microstructural parameters on the propensity for forming shear localization produced during high speed torsional testing by split Hopkinson bar with different average rates of 610, 650 and 1500 s(-1) in low carbon steels. These steels received the quenched, quenched and tempered as well as normalized treatments that provide wide microstructural parameters and mechanical properties. The results indicate that the occurrence of the shear localization is susceptible to the strength of the steels. In other words, the tendency of the quenched steel to form a shear band is higher than that of the other two steels. It is also found that there is a critical strain at which the shear localization occurs in the steels. The critical strain value is strongly dependent on the strength of the steels. Before arriving at this point, the material undergoes a slow work-hardening. After this point, the material suffers work-softening, corresponding to a process during which the deformation is gradually localized and eventually becomes spatially correlated to form a macroscopic shear band. Examinations by SEM reveal that the shear localization within the band involves a series of sequential crystallographic and non-crystallographic events including the change in crystal orientation, misorientation, generation and even perhaps damage in microstructures such as the initiation, growth and coalescence of the microcracks. It is expected that the sharp drop in the load-carrying capacity is associated with the growth and coalescence of the microcracks rather than the occurrence of the shear localization, but the shear localization is seen to accelerate the growth and coalescence of the microcracks. The thin foil observations by TEM reveal that the density of dislocations in the band is extremely high and the tangled arrangement and cell structure of dislocations tends to align along the shear direction. The multiplication and interaction of dislocations seems to be responsible for work-hardening of the steels. The avalanche of the dislocation cells corresponds to the sharp drop in shear stress at which the deformed specimen is broken. Double shear bands and kink bands are also observed in the present study. The principal band develops first and its width is narrower than that of the secondary band.

Optimization of 2-stage gas gun for fusion refueling pellet injection with consideration of real effects

Analytic expression of pellet acceleration by constant base pressure with consideration of gas-wall friction, heat transfer and viscous dissipation that important for high speed injection is obtained. The process of compression stage is formulated by a set of governing equations and can be numerically integrated. Excellent confirmation with experiments is obtained and the ways to optimum match the compression stage with the launch stage are suggested.

Mechanical and thermal structure of a cylindrical plume in the earth's mantle

A mantle plume is understood as a hot, narrow, upwelling flow in the earth's mantle and accompanied by an efficient transfer of mass and energy from deep to upper layer of the earth. The cylindrical plume in earth's mantle plays an important role in explaining the origin of the surface hot spots and linear island chains. From the basic hydrodynamical equations, the detailed mechanical and thermal structure of a cylindrical plume of Newtouian fluids with temperature and pressure-dependent viscosity are given in the present paper. For two sets of rheological parameters the radial profiles of upward velocity, temperature and viscosity in the plume and radiuses of the plume at various depths have been calculated.

An asymptotic solution of hydrodynamic equations at the mid-plane of a plume in the earths mantle

From the partial differential equations of hydrodynamics governing the movements in the Earth's mantle of a Newtonian fluid with a pressure- and temperature-dependent viscosity, considering the bilateral symmetry of velocity and temperature distributions at the mid-plane of the plume, an analytical solution of the governing equations near the mid-plane of the plume was found by the method of asymptotic analysis. The vertical distribution of the upward velocity, viscosity and temperature at the mid-plane, and the temperature excess at the centre of the plume above the ambient mantle temperature were then calculated for two sets of Newtonian rheological parameters. The results obtained show that the temperature at the mid-plane and the temperature excess are nearly independent of the rheological parameters. The upward velocity at the mid-plane, however, is strongly dependent on the rheological parameters.

The thermal and mechanical structure of a two-dimensional plume in the earths mantle

On the condition that the distribution of velocity and temperature at the mid-plane of a mantle plume has been obtained (pages 213–218, this issue), the problem of determining the lateral structure of the plume at a given depth is reduced to solving an eigenvalue problem of a set of ordinary differential equations with five unknown functions, with an eigenvalue being related to the thermal thickness of the plume at this depth. The lateral profiles of upward velocity, temperature and viscosity in the plume and the thickness of the plume at various depths are calculated for two sets of Newtonian rheological parameters. The calculations show that the precondition for the existence of the plume, δT/L 1 (L = the height of the plume, δT = lateral distance from the mid-plane), can be satisfied, except for the starting region of the plume or near the base of the lithosphere. At the lateral distance, δT, the upward velocity decreases to 0.1 – 50% of its maximum value at different depths. It is believed that this model may provide an approach for a quantitative description of the detailed structure of a mantle plume.

Distributions of temperature, velocity and viscosity at symmetrical axis of cylindrical plume in earth's mantle with variable viscosity

The parameters at the symmetrical axis of a cylindrical plume characterize the strength of this plume and provide a boundary condition which must be given to investigate the structure of a plume. For Newtonian fluid with a temperature-and pressure-dependence viscosity, an asymptotical solution of hydrodynamic equations at the symmetrical axis of the plume is found in the present paper. The temperature, upward velocity and viscosity at the symmetrical axis have been obtained as functions of depth, The calculated results have been given for two typical sets of Newtonian rheological parameters. The results obtained show that the temperature distribution along the symmetrical axis is nearly independent of the theological parameters. The upward velocity at the symmetrical axis, however, is strongly dependent on the rheological parameters.

Static equilibrium of horizontal ring prominence

In 1980 the Beijing Observatory had successively observed sevesal rare completely closed ring prominences whose ring plane was approximately parallel to the solar surface with a characteristic life about 1—2 days. In this paper we discuss the static equilibrium of this kind of horizontal ring plasma under the simultaneous actions of magnetic force, gravity and pressure gradients. Assuming ring plasma with axisymmetry and rectangular plasma cross-section and adopting closed magnetic field boundary condition from the basic equations we obtain the exact zero order general solutions for magnetic field (force-free field) and density (pressure). We further obtain an eigen-solution for the zero order magnetic field and density as well as the first order magnetic field, thus giving a kind of the possible distribution of magnetic field and density for the horizontal closed ring prominence. The closed magnetic structure of ring prominence as presented in this paper, has no link with the force lines of the outside corona magnetic field. This is helpful to explain the great temperature difference between prominenee and corona.