Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China

In this paper, the codes of Pattern Informatics (PI) method put forward by Rundle et al. have been worked out according to their algorithm published, and the retrospective forecast of PI method to North China (28.0 degrees-42.0 degrees N, 108.0 degrees-125.0 degrees E) and to Southwest China (22.0 degrees-28.3 degrees N, 98.0 degrees-106.0 degrees E) has been tested. The results show that the hit rates in different regions show a great difference. In Southwest China, 32 earthquakes with M(L)5.0 or larger have occurred during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and 26 out of the 32 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. In North China, the total number of M(L)5.0 or larger was 12 during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and only 3 out of the 12 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. From our results, we hold that if the PI method could be applied to all kinds of regions, the parameters associated with time points and time windows should be chosen carefully to obtain the higher hit rate. We also found that the aftershocks in a strong earthquake sequence affect the PI results obviously. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assessing the consequence of land use change on agricultural productivity in China

China's cultivated land has been undergoing dramatic changes along with its rapidly growing economy and population. The impacts of land use transformation on food production at the national scale, however, have been poorly understood due to the lack of detailed spatially explicit agricultural productivity information on cropland change and crop productivity. This study evaluates the effect of the cropland transformation on agricultural productivity by combining the land use data of China for the period of 1990-2000 from TM images and a satellite-based NPP (net primary production) model driven with NOAH/AVHRR data. The cropland area of China has a net increase of 2.79 Mha in the study period, which causes a slightly increased agricultural productivity (6.96 Mt C) at the national level. Although the newly cultivated lands compensated for the loss from urban expansion, but the contribution to production is insignificant because of the low productivity. The decrease in crop production resulting from urban expansion is about twice of that from abandonment of arable lands to forests and grasslands. The productivity of arable lands occupied by urban expansion was 80% higher than that of the newly cultivated lands in the regions with unfavorable natural conditions. Significance of cropland transformation impacts is spatially diverse with the differences in land use change intensity and land productivity across China. The increase in arable land area and yet decline in land quality may reduce the production potential and sustainability of China's agro-ecosystems. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation for use efficiency of agricultural resources in grain production: A case study of Changshu, Taihe and Ansai in China

National Natural Science Foundation of China [70673097]

The temporal and spatial evaluation on China's agricultural policy output since 1978

Since reform and opening up, how much contribution has China's implementation of new agricultural policy made to agricultural output? This paper is trying to establish an agricultural policy output econometric model for doing a quantitative analysis of China's new agricultural policy. The results show that China's agricultural policies on agricultural output have an average contribution rate of about 7% since 1978, which is consistent with the OECD's basic forecast. There are obvious temporal and spatial differences. Generally speaking, we can divide the contribution of agricultural policy into three periods, which are the start-up phase from 1978 to 1991 (14 years), the stationary phase from 1992 to 2002 (11 years) and the rising phase from 2003 to 2008 (6 years). In space, the contribution of agricultural policy underwent a process from the all-low in the start-up phase, the gradual increase in the stationary phase to the all-high in the rising phase. Northern and western regions are more sensitive to policies. There are three major factors that can affect the contribution of regional agricultural policies, which are the process of national industrialization strategy, terrain and the level of local finance.

Distribution and mobility of metals in agricultural soils near a copper smelter in South China

The distribution and mobility of heavy metals in the paddy soils surrounding a copper smelting plant in south China was investigated. We assessed the degree of metal contamination using an index of geoaccumulation. The metals were divided into two groups: (1) Cu, Zn, Pb and Cd, whose concentrations were heavily affected by anthropogenic inputs, and (2) Ni, Co and Cr, which were mainly of geochemical origin. Concentrations of Cu, Cd, Zn, and Pb in the polluted soils were higher than the Chinese soil quality criteria. The chemical partitioning patterns of Pb, Zn and Cu indicated that Pb was largely associated with the residual and NH2OH HCl extractable fractions. In contrast, Cd was predominantly associated with the MgCl2 extractable fraction. A large proportion of Cu was bound to the acidic H2O2 extractable fractions, while Zn was predominantly found in the residual phase. The fraction of mobile species, which potentially is the most harmful to the environment, was found to be elevated compared to unpolluted soils in which heavy metals are more strongly bound to the matrix. The mobility of the metals was studied by water extraction using a modification of Tessier's procedure, and the order of mobility was Zn > Cd > Cu > Ce > Pb.

Aega sheni, a new species of Aegidae (Crustacea : Isopoda : Cymothoida) from southern China and Australia

Aega sheni sp. nov. from Chinese and Australian waters, is described and figured. This species is characterized by the plate-like expansion of antennule peduncle articles 1 and 2, very large eyes (nearly making contact), numerous robust setae on the inferior margins of the ischium of pereopods 2 and 3, large distal lobe on the propodus of pereopods 1-3, shape and setation of the uropods, and the rounded pleotelson posterior margin. Aega sheni has been recorded at depths of 300-435 metres.

Gene admixture in the Silk Road region of China: Evidence from mtDNA and melanocortin 1 receptor polymorphism

Mitochondrial DNA control region segment I sequences and melanocortin 1 receptor (MC1R) gene polymorphism were examined in ethnic populations in the silk road region of China. Both the frequencies of the MC1R variants and the results of mtDNA data in this region presented intermediate values between those of Europe and East and Southeast Asia, which suggested extensive gene admixture in this area and was in general agreement with previous studies. Phylogenetic analysis of the ethnic populations in the Silk Road region that based on mtDNA data didn't show expected cluster pattern according to their ethnogenesis. We suspect that a high migration rate in female among these closely related populations and other three demographic events might account for it.

The evolution of cooperation in asymmetric systems

Explaining "Tragedy of the Commons" of evolution of cooperation remains one of the greatest problems for both biology and social science. Asymmetrical interaction, which is one of the most important characteristics of cooperative system, has not been sufficiently considered in the existing models of the evolution of cooperation. Considering the inequality in the number and payoff between the cooperative actors and recipients in cooperation systems, discriminative density-dependent interference competition will occur in limited dispersal systems. Our model and simulation show that the local but not the global stability of a cooperative interaction can be maintained if the utilization of common resource remains unsaturated, which can be achieved by density-dependent restraint or competition among the cooperative actors. More intense density dependent interference competition among the cooperative actors and the ready availability of the common resource, with a higher intrinsic contribution ratio of a cooperative actor to the recipient, will increase the probability of cooperation. The cooperation between the recipient and the cooperative actors can be transformed into conflict and, it oscillates chaotically with variations of the affecting factors under different environmental or ecological conditions. The higher initial relatedness (i.e. similar to kin or reciprocity relatedness), which is equivalent to intrinsic contribution ratio of a cooperative actor to the recipient, can be selected for by penalizing less cooperative or cheating actors but rewarding cooperative individuals in asymmetric systems. The initial relatedness is a pivot but not the aim of evolution of cooperation. This explains well the direct conflict observed in almost all cooperative systems.