Impacts of the Wenchuan Earthquake on the Giant Panda Nature Reserves in China

Ministry of Science and Technology of China [2008BAK47B02, 2008BAC44B04, 2008BAK50B06, 2008BAC43B01, 2006BAC08B06]

Analysis of the population capacity in the reconstruction areas of 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

National Key Technology R&D Program of China [2008BAK50B05]; Chinese Academy of Sciences [KZCX-YW-Q06, KZCX2-YW-Q03-06]

大型反倾岩体变形破坏机制及稳定性分析———以金沙江宽谷坝址龙蟠边坡为例

A large number of catastrophic accidents were aroused by the instability and destruction of anti-dip rock masses in the worldwide engineering projects, such as hydropower station, mine, railways and so on. Problems in relation to deformation and failure about anti-dip rock slopes are significant for engineering geology research. This dissertation takes the Longpan slope in the Jinsha River as a case to study the deformation mechanism of large-scale anti-dip rock masses and the slope stability analysis method. The primary conclusions are as follows. The Dale Reach of Jinsha River, from Longpan to the debouchment of Chongjiang tributary, is located in the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Longpan slope is the right embankment of Dale dam, it is only 26 km to the Shigu and 18 km to Tiger Leaping Gorge. The areal geology tectonic structures here area are complicated and blurry. Base on the information of geophysical exploration (CSAMT and seismology) and engineering geological investigation, the perdue tectonic pattern of Dale Reach is put forward for the first time in this paper. Due to the reverse slip of Longpan fault and normal left-rotation of Baihanchang fault, the old faulted valley came into being. The thick riverbed sediments have layered characters of different components and corresponding causes, which attribute to the sedimentary environments according with the new tectonic movements such as periodic mountain uplifting in middle Pleistocene. Longpan slope consists of anti-dip alternate sandstone and slate stratums, and the deformable volume is 6.5×107m3 approximately. It was taken for an ancient landslide or toppling failure in the past so that Dale dam became a vexed question. Through the latest field surveying, displacement monitoring and rock masses deforming characters analyses, the geological mechanism is actually a deep-seated gravitational bending deformation. And then the discrete element method is used to simulate the deforming evolution process, the conclusion accords very well with the geo-mechanical patterns analyses. In addition strength reduction method based on DEM is introduced to evaluate the factor of safety of anti-dip rock slope, and in accordance with the expansion way of the shear yielding zones, the progressive shear failure mechanism of large-scale anti-dip rock masses is proposed for the first time. As an embankment or a close reservoir bank to the lower dam, the stability of Longpan slope especially whether or not resulting in sliding with high velocity and activating water waves is a key question for engineering design. In fact it is difficult to decide the unified slip surface of anti-dip rock slope for traditional methods. The author takes the shear yielding zones acquired form the discrete element strength reduction calculation as the potential sliding surface and then evaluates the change of excess pore pressure and factor of stability of the slope generated by rapid drawdown of ponded water. At the same time the dynamic response of the slope under seismic loading is simulated through DEM numerical modeling, the following results are obtained. Firstly the effective effect of seismic inertia force is resulting in accumulation of shear stresses. Secondly the discontinuous structures are crucial to wave transmission. Thirdly the ultimate dynamic response of slope system takes place at the initial period of seismic loading. Lastly but essentially the effect of earthquake load to bringing on deformation and failure of rock slope is the coupling effect of shear stresses and excess pore water pressure accumulation. In view of limitations in searching the critical slip surface of rock slope of the existing domestic and international software for limit equilibrium slope stability analyses, this article proposes a new method named GA-Sarma Algorithm for rock slope stability analyses. Just as its name implies, GA-Sarma Algorithm bases on Genetic Algorithm and Sarma method. GA-Sarma Algorithm assumes the morphology of slip surface to be a broken line with traceability to extend along the discontinuous surface structures, and the slice boundaries is consistent with rock mass discontinuities such as rock layers, faults, cracks, and so on. GA-Sarma Algorithm is revolutionary method that is suitable for global optimization of the critical slip surface for rock slopes. The topics and contents including in this dissertation are closely related to the difficulties in practice, the main conclusions have been authorized by the engineering design institute. The research work is very meaningful and useful for the engineering construction of Longpan hydropower station.

边坡动力响应分析及应用研究

As a marginal subject, dynamic responses of slopes is not only an important problem of engineering geology (Geotechnical problem), but also of other subjects such as seismology, geophysics, seismic engineering and engineering seismic and so on. Owning to the gulf between different subjects, it is arduous to study dynamic responses of slopes and the study is far from ripeness. Studying on the dynamic responses of slopes is very important in theories as well as practices. Supported by hundreds of bibliographies, this paper systemically details the development process of this subject, introduces main means to analyze this subject, and then gives brief remarks to each means respectively. Engineering geology qualitative analysis is the base of slopes dynamic responses study. Because of complexity of geological conditions, engineering geology qualitative analysis is very important in slopes stability study, especially to rock slopes with complex engineering geology conditions. Based on research fruits of forerunners, this paper summarizes factors influencing slopes dynamic stability into five aspects as geology background, stratums, rock mass structure, and topography as well as hydrogeology condition. Based on rock mass structure controlling theory, engineering geology model of the slope is grouped into two typical classes, one is model with obvious controlling discontinuities, which includes horizontal bedded slope, bedding slope, anti-dip slope, slide as well as slope with base rock and weathered crust; the other is model without obvious controlling discontinuities, which includes homogeneous soil slope, joint rock mass slope. Study on slope failure mechanism under dynamic force, the paper concludes that there are two effects will appear in slope during strong earthquake, one is earthquake inertia force, the other is ultra pore pressure buildup. The two effects lead to failure of the slope. To different types of slope failure, the intensity of two effects acting on the slope is different too. To plastic flow failure, pore pressure buildup is dominant; to falling rock failure and toppling failure, earthquake inertia force is dominant in general. This paper briefly introduces the principle of Lagrangian element method. Through a lot of numerical simulations with FLAC3D, the paper comprehensively studies dynamic responses of slopes, and finds that: if the slope is low, displacement, velocity and acceleration are linear enlarging with elevation increasing in vertical direction; if the slope is high enough, displacement, velocity and acceleration are not linear with elevation any more, on the other hand, they fluctuate with certain rhythm. At the same time, the rhythm appears in the horizontal direction in the certain area near surface of the slope. The distribution form of isoline of displacement, velocity and acceleration in the section of the slope is remarkably affected by the slope angle. In the certain area near the slope surface, isoline of displacement, velocity and acceleration is parallel to the surface of the slope, in the mean time, the strike direction of the extreraum area is parallel to the surface of the slope too. Beyond this area, the isoline direction and the strike direction of the extremum area turn to horizontal with invariable distance. But the rhythm appearing or not has nothing to with the slope angle. The paper defines the high slope effect and the low slope effect of slopes dynamic responses, discusses the threshold height H^t of the dynamic high slope effect, and finds that AW is proportional to square root of the dynamic elastic moduli El P , at the same time, it is proportional to period Tof the dynamic input. Thus, the discriminant of H^t is achieved. The discriminant can tell us that to a slope, if its height is larger than one fifth of the wavelength, its response regular will be the dynamic high slope effect; on the other hand, its response regular will be the dynamic low slope effect. Based on these, the discriminant of different slopes taking on same response under the same dynamic input is put forward in this paper. At the same time, the paper studies distribution law of the rhythm extremum point of displacement, velocity and acceleration, and finds that there exists relationship of N = int among the slope height H, the number of the rhythm extremum VHlhro) point N and ffthre- Furthermore, the paper points out that if N^l, the response of the slope will be dynamic high slope effect; \fNseismology of the slope, combining with characteristics of the slope as well as the scale of the project, PGA(peak ground acceleration) of the site is decided (about 197.1cm/s2) by engineering seismology, and then the seismic input used in the slope dynamic analysis is determined. Comprehensive studies are carried out on the slope, especially to its deep fractures, and then the paper concludes that the deep fractures of slope are the result of the combination unloading effect of gravity and tectonic stress. At the same time, the failure model of the slope under dynamic input is attained. Based on these, the stability is comprehensively studied for section IV-IV with numerical simulation method as well as method putting forward in chapter 5. At last, the paper concludes that under dynamic input, the section will slide along fault f9, some deep fractures and fault/5 with certain permanent displacement, and this must be taken into consideration in the engineering.

中国大陆及邻区地震活动背景、环境触发与地震预测研究

This dissertation that includes most of the P. PH.D research work during 2001~2002 covers the large-scale distribution of continental earthquakes in mainland China, the mechanism and statistic features of grouped strong earthquakes related to the tidal triggering, some results in earthquake prediction with correlativity analysis methods, and the flushes from the two strong continental earthquakes in South Asia in 2001. Mainland China is the only continental sub-plate that is compressed by collision boundaries at its two sides, within which earthquakes are dispersive and distributed as seismic belts with different widths. The control capability of the continental block boundaries on the strong earthquakes and seismic hazards is calculated and analyzed in this dissertation. By mapping the distribution of the 31282 ML:3s2,0 earthquakes, I found that the depth of continental earthquakes depend on the tectonic zonings. The events on the boundaries of relatively integrated blocks are deep and those on the new-developed ruptures are shallow. The average depth of earthquakes in the West of China is about 5km deeper than that in the east. The western and southwestern brim of Tarim Basin generated the deepest earthquakes in mainland China. The statistic results from correlation between the grouped M7 earthquakes and the tidal stress show that the strong events were modulated by tidal stress in active periods. Taking Taiwan area as an example, the dependence of moderate events on the moon phase angles (￡>) is analyzed, which shows that the number of the earthquakes in Taiwan when D is 50° ,50° +90° and 50° +180° is more than 2 times of standard deviation over the average frequency at each degree, corresponding to the 4th, 12th and 19th solar day after the new moon. The probability of earthquake attack to the densely populated Taiwan island on the 4th solar day is about 4 times of that on other solar days. On the practice of earthquake prediction, I calculated and analyzed the temporal correlation of the earthquakes in Xinjinag area, Qinghai-Tibet area, west Yunnan area, North China area and those in their adjacent areas, and predicted at the end of 2000 that it would be a special time interval from 2001 to 2003, within which moderate to strong earthquakes would be more active in the west of China. What happened in 2001 partly validated the prediction. Within 10 months, there were 2 great continental earthquakes in south Asia, i.e., the M7.8 event in India on Jan 26 and M8.1 event in China on Nov. 14, 2001, which are the largest earthquake in the past 50 years both for India and China. No records for two great earthquakes in Asia within so short time interval. We should speculate the following aspects from the two incidences: The influence of the fallacious deployment of seismic stations on the fine location and focal mechanism determination of strong earthquakes must be affronted. It is very important to introduce comparative seismology research to seismic hazard analysis and earthquake prediction research. The improvement or changes in real-time prediction of strong earthquakes with precursors is urged. Methods need to be refreshed to protect environment and historical relics in earthquake-prone areas.

用宽频带远震体波波形研究中国及邻近地区地壳构造及地质意义初探

The theory and approach of the broadband teleseismic body waveform inversion are expatiated in this paper, and the defining the crust structure's methods are developed. Based on the teleseismic P-wave data, the theoretic image of the P-wave radical component is calculated via the convolution of the teleseismic P-wave vertical component and the transform function, and thereby a P-wavefrom inversion method is built. The applied results show the approach effective, stable and its resolution high. The exact and reliable teleseismic P waveforms recorded by CDSN and IRIS and its geodynamics are utilized to obtain China and its vicinage lithospheric transfer functions, this region ithospheric structure is inverted through the inversion of reliable transfer functions, the new knowledge about the deep structure of China and its vicinage is obtained, and the reliable seismological evidence is provided to reveal the geodynamic evolution processes and set up the continental collisional theory. The major studies are as follows: Two important methods to study crustal and upper mantle structure -- body wave travel-time inversion and waveform modeling are reviewed systematically. Based on ray theory, travel-time inversion is characterized by simplicity, crustal and upper mantle velocity model can be obtained by using 1-D travel-time inversion preliminary, which introduces the reference model for studying focal location, focal mechanism, and fine structure of crustal and upper mantle. The large-scale lateral inhomogeneity of crustal and upper mantle can be obtained by three-dimensional t ravel-time seismic tomography. Based on elastic dynamics, through the fitting between theoretical seismogram and observed seismogram, waveform modeling can interpret the detail waveform and further uncover one-dimensional fine structure and lateral variation of crustal and upper mantle, especially the media characteristics of singular zones of ray. Whatever travel-time inversion and waveform modeling is supposed under certain approximate conditions, with respective advantages and disadvantages, and provide convincing structure information for elucidating physical and chemical features and geodynamic processes of crustal and upper mantle. Because the direct wave, surface wave, and refraction wave have lower resolution in investigating seismic velocity transitional zone, which is inadequate to study seismic discontinuities. On the contrary, both the converse and reflected wave, which sample the discontinuities directly, must be carefully picked up from seismogram to constrain the velocity transitional zones. Not only can the converse wave and reflected wave study the crustal structure, but also investigate the upper mantle discontinuities. There are a number of global and regional seismic discontinuities in the crustal and upper mantle, which plays a significant role in understanding physical and chemical properties and geodynamic processes of crustal and upper mantle. The broadband teleseismic P waveform inversion is studied particularly. The teleseismic P waveforms contain a lot of information related to source time function, near-source structure, propagation effect through the mantle, receiver structure, and instrument response, receiver function is isolated form teleseismic P waveform through the vector rotation of horizontal components into ray direction and the deconvolution of vertical component from the radial and tangential components of ground motion, the resulting time series is dominated by local receiver structure effect, and is hardly irrelevant to source and deep mantle effects. Receiver function is horizontal response, which eliminate multiple P wave reflection and retain direct wave and P-S converted waves, and is sensitive to the vertical variation of S wave velocity. Velocity structure beneath a seismic station has different response to radial and vertical component of an accident teleseismic P wave. To avoid the limits caused by a simplified assumption on the vertical response, the receiver function method is mended. In the frequency domain, the transfer function is showed by the ratio of radical response and vertical response of the media to P wave. In the time domain, the radial synthetic waveform can be obtained by the convolution of the transfer function with the vertical wave. In order to overcome the numerical instability, generalized reflection and transmission coefficient matrix method is applied to calculate the synthetic waveform so that all multi-reflection and phase conversion response can be included. A new inversion method, VFSA-LM method, is used in this study, which successfully combines very fast simulated annealing method (VFSA) with damped least square inversion method (LM). Synthetic waveform inversion test confirms its effectiveness and efficiency. Broadband teleseismic P waveform inversion is applied in lithospheric velocity study of China and its vicinage. According to the data of high quality CDSN and IRIS, we obtained an outline map showing the distribution of Asian continental crustal thickness. Based on these results gained, the features of distribution of the crustal thickness and outline of crustal structure under the Asian continent have been analyzed and studied. Finally, this paper advances the principal characteristics of the Asian continental crust. There exist four vast areas of relatively minor variations in the crustal thickness, namely, northern, eastern southern and central areas of Asian crust. As a byproduct, the earthquake location is discussed, Which is a basic issue in seismology. Because of the strong trade-off between the assumed initial time and focal depth and the nonlinear of the inversion problems, this issue is not settled at all. Aimed at the problem, a new earthquake location method named SAMS method is presented, In which, the objective function is the absolute value of the remnants of travel times together with the arrival times and use the Fast Simulated Annealing method is used to inverse. Applied in the Chi-Chi event relocation of Taiwan occurred on Sep 21, 2000, the results show that the SAMS method not only can reduce the effects of the trade-off between the initial time and focal depth, but can get better stability and resolving power. At the end of the paper, the inverse Q filtering method for compensating attenuation and frequency dispersion used in the seismic section of depth domain is discussed. According to the forward and inverse results of synthesized seismic records, our Q filtrating operator of the depth domain is consistent with the seismic laws in the absorbing media, which not only considers the effect of the media absorbing of the waves, but also fits the deformation laws, namely the frequency dispersion of the body wave. Two post stacked profiles about 60KM, a neritic area of China processed, the result shows that after the forward Q filtering of the depth domain, the wide of the wavelet of the middle and deep layers is compressed, the resolution and signal noise ratio are enhanced, and the primary sharp and energy distribution of the profile are retained.

Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.

State Vector: A New Approach to Prediction of the Failure of Brittle Heterogeneous Media and Large Earthquakes

The concept of state vector stems from statistical physics, where it is usually used to describe activity patterns of a physical field in its manner of coarsegrain. In this paper, we propose an approach by which the state vector was applied to describe quantitatively the damage evolution of the brittle heterogeneous systems, and some interesting results are presented, i.e., prior to the macro-fracture of rock specimens and occurrence of a strong earthquake, evolutions of the four relevant scalars time series derived from the state vectors changed anomalously. As retrospective studies, some prominent large earthquakes occurred in the Chinese Mainland (e.g., the M 7.4 Haicheng earthquake on February 4, 1975, and the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake on July 28, 1976, etc) were investigated. Results show considerable promise that the time-dependent state vectors could serve as a kind of precursor to predict earthquakes.

LURR's Twenty Years and Its Perspective

Seismogenic process is a nonlinear and irreversible one, so that the response to loading of a seismogenic zone is different from the unloading one. This difference reflects quantitatively the process of an earthquake preparation. A physics-based new parameter-Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was proposed to measure quantitatively the proximity to a strong earthquake and then used to be an earthquake predictor. In the present paper, a brief history of LURR is recalled; inspection of real earthquake cases, numerical simulations and laboratory studies of LURR, prediction efforts in terms of LURR, probability problem of LURR and its prospect are also expatiated.

Simulation of the Load-Unload Response Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice Solid Model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability

Both earthquake prediction and failure prediction of disordered brittle media are difficult and complicated problems and they might have something in common. In order to search for clues for earthquake prediction, the common features of failure in a simple nonlinear dynamical model resembling disordered brittle media are examined. It is found that the failure manifests evolution-induced catastrophe (EIC), i.e., the abrupt transition from globally stable (GS) accumulation of damage to catastrophic failure. A distinct feature is the significant uncertainty of catastrophe, called sample-specificity. Consequently, it is impossible to make a deterministic prediction macroscopically. This is similar to the question of predictability of earthquakes. However, our model shows that strong stress fluctuations may be an immediate precursor of catastrophic failure statistically. This might provide clues for earthquake forecasting.

Weak Zone Related Seismic Cycles in Progressive Failure Leading to Collapse in Brittle Crust

Until quite recently our understanding of the basic mechanical process responsible for earthquakes and faulting was not well known. It can be argued that this was partly a consequence of the complex nature of fracture in crust and in part because evidence of brittle phenomena in the natural laboratory of the earth is often obliterated or obscured by other geological processes. While it is well understood that the spatial and temporal complexity of earthquakes and the fault structures emerge from geometrical and material built-in heterogeneities, one important open question is how the shearing becomes localized into a band of intense fractures. Here the authors address these questions through a numerical approach of a tectonic plate by considering rockmass heterogeneity both in microscopic scale and in mesoscopic scale. Numerical simulations of the progressive failure leading to collapse under long-range slow driving forces in the far-field show earthquake-like rupture behavior. $En Echelon$ crack-arrays are reproduced in the numerical simulation. It is demonstrated that the underlying fracturing induced acoustic emissions (or seismic events) display self-organized criticality------from disorder to order. The seismic cycles and the geometric structures of the fracture faces, which are found greatly depending on the material heterogeneity (especially on the macroscopic scale), agree with that observed experimentally in real brittle materials. It is concluded that in order to predict a main shock, one must have extremely detailed knowledge on very minor features of the earth's crust far from the place where the earthquake originated. If correct, the model proposed here seemingly provides an explanation as to why earthquakes to date are not predicted so successfully. The reason is not that the authors do not understand earthquake mechanisms very well but that they still know little about our earth's crust.

A Variational Approach to the Burridge-Knopoff Equation

A variational principle is obtained for the Burridge-Knopoff model for earthquake faults, and this paper considers an analytic approach that does not require linearization or perturbation.