Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Algorithm Studies on How to Obtain a Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP)

The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which is a nonlinear generalization of the linear singular vector (LSV), is applied in important problems of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, including ENSO predictability, targeted observations, and ensemble forecast. In this study, we investigate the computational cost of obtaining the CNOP by several methods. Differences and similarities, in terms of the computational error and cost in obtaining the CNOP, are compared among the sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm, the limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) algorithm, and the spectral projected gradients (SPG2) algorithm. A theoretical grassland ecosystem model and the classical Lorenz model are used as examples. Numerical results demonstrate that the computational error is acceptable with all three algorithms. The computational cost to obtain the CNOP is reduced by using the SQP algorithm. The experimental results also reveal that the L-BFGS algorithm is the most effective algorithm among the three optimization algorithms for obtaining the CNOP. The numerical results suggest a new approach and algorithm for obtaining the CNOP for a large-scale optimization problem.

A field study on the conversion ratio of phytoplankton biomass carbon to chlorophyll-a in Jiaozhou Bay, China

A one-year field study was conducted to determine the conversion ratio of phytoplankton biomass carbon (Phyto-C) to chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in Jiaozhou Bay, China. We measured suspended particulate organic carbon (POC) and phytoplankton Chl-a samples collected in surface water monthly from March 2005 to February 2006. The temporal and spatial variations of Chl-a and POC concentrations were observed in the bay. Based on the field measurements, a linear regression model II was used to generate the conversion ratio of Phyto-C to Chl-a. In most cases, a good linear correlation was found between the observed POC and Chl-a concentrations, and the calculated conversion ratios ranged from 26 to 250 with a mean value of 56 A mu g A mu g(-1). The conversion ratio in the fall was higher than that in the winter and spring months, and had the lowest values in the summer. The ratios also exhibited spatial variations, generally with low values in the near shore regions and relatively high values in offshore waters. Our study suggests that temperature was likely to be the main factor influencing the observed seasonal variations of conversion ratios while nutrient supply and light penetration played important roles in controlling the spatial variations.

基于多特征模糊聚类的图像融合方法

首先利用模糊C-均值聚类算法在多特征形成的特征空间上对图像进行区域分割,并在此基础上对区域进行多尺度小波分解;然后利用柯西函数构造区域的模糊相似度,应用模糊相似度及区域信息量构造加权因子,从而得到融合图像的小波系数;最后利用小波逆变换得到融合图像·采用均方根误差、峰值信噪比、熵、交叉熵和互信息5种准则评价融合算法的性能·实验结果表明,文中方法具有良好的融合特性·

并联机器人研究现状

并联机器人是一类全新的机器人，它具有刚度大、承载能力强、误差小、精度高、自重负荷比小、动力性能好、控制容易等一系列优点，因而扩大了整个机器人的应用领域。本文综述了并联机器人的研究现状：包括并联机器人的特点，运动学建模，动力学建模，应用状况等。

高阶无静差采样控制系统的动态综合

本文利用“最小响应法”给出了 N≥2阶无静差采样控制系统的设计公式.作者指出:对于某类闭环控制系统,在给定阶跃响应最大超调量σ_(max)的条件下,可以找出最佳比值T/T_(T 为系统的采样周期,T_(?)为对象的不便克服的等效小时间常数之和),使系统获得相应阶最大误差系数 K_(N+1),从而可使系统达到快速精密的控制指标。为了在工程设计中应用方便,文中还给出了二至六阶无静差的σ_(max),T/T_(?),K_(N+1)T(?)最佳参数组,使得这类闭环控制系统的设计最佳化和简易化.

二维流形三角网格模型顶点法矢量估计

提出一种以顶点的一邻域中三角形在该顶点处的顶角与对应三角形的面积比值加权三角面法矢量估计二维流形三角网格模型顶点法矢量的方法.回顾了现有的五种顶点法矢量估计方法,然后给出了新的方法.设计了利用理论法矢量与估计法矢量的夹角作为误差评价标准的实验,应用球体和椭球体模型分析了所涉及的6种估计方法的性能。

粘弹性介质中的地震波传播与波形反演研究

The real earth is far away from an ideal elastic ball. The movement of structures or fluid and scattering of thin-layer would inevitably affect seismic wave propagation, which is demonstrated mainly as energy nongeometrical attenuation. Today, most of theoretical researches and applications take the assumption that all media studied are fully elastic. Ignoring the viscoelastic property would, in some circumstances, lead to amplitude and phase distortion, which will indirectly affect extraction of traveltime and waveform we use in imaging and inversion. In order to investigate the response of seismic wave propagation and improve the imaging and inversion quality in complex media, we need not only consider into attenuation of the real media but also implement it by means of efficient numerical methods and imaging techniques. As for numerical modeling, most widely used methods, such as finite difference, finite element and pseudospectral algorithms, have difficulty in dealing with problem of simultaneously improving accuracy and efficiency in computation. To partially overcome this difficulty, this paper devises a matrix differentiator method and an optimal convolutional differentiator method based on staggered-grid Fourier pseudospectral differentiation, and a staggered-grid optimal Shannon singular kernel convolutional differentiator by function distribution theory, which then are used to study seismic wave propagation in viscoelastic media. Results through comparisons and accuracy analysis demonstrate that optimal convolutional differentiator methods can solve well the incompatibility between accuracy and efficiency, and are almost twice more accurate than the same-length finite difference. They can efficiently reduce dispersion and provide high-precision waveform data. On the basis of frequency-domain wavefield modeling, we discuss how to directly solve linear equations and point out that when compared to the time-domain methods, frequency-domain methods would be more convenient to handle the multi-source problem and be much easier to incorporate medium attenuation. We also prove the equivalence of the time- and frequency-domain methods by using numerical tests when assumptions with non-relaxation modulus and quality factor are made, and analyze the reason that causes waveform difference. In frequency-domain waveform inversion, experiments have been conducted with transmission, crosshole and reflection data. By using the relation between media scales and characteristic frequencies, we analyze the capacity of the frequency-domain sequential inversion method in anti-noising and dealing with non-uniqueness of nonlinear optimization. In crosshole experiments, we find the main sources of inversion error and figure out how incorrect quality factor would affect inverted results. When dealing with surface reflection data, several frequencies have been chosen with optimal frequency selection strategy, with which we use to carry out sequential and simultaneous inversions to verify how important low frequency data are to the inverted results and the functionality of simultaneous inversion in anti-noising. Finally, I come with some conclusions about the whole work I have done in this dissertation and discuss detailly the existing and would-be problems in it. I also point out the possible directions and theories we should go and deepen, which, to some extent, would provide a helpful reference to researchers who are interested in seismic wave propagation and imaging in complex media.

小波域地震资料的处理方法（WSSP）研究

The modeling formula based on seismic wavelet can well simulate zero - phase wavelet and hybrid-phase wavelet, and approximate maximal - phase and minimal - phase wavelet in a certain sense. The modeling wavelet can be used as wavelet function after suitable modification item added to meet some conditions. On the basis of the modified Morlet wavelet, the derivative wavelet function has been derived. As a basic wavelet, it can be sued for high resolution frequency - division processing and instantaneous feature extraction, in acoordance with the signal expanding characters in time and scale domains by each wavelet structured. Finally, an application example proves the effectiveness and reasonability of the method. Based on the analysis of SVD (Singular Value Decomposition) filter, by taking wavelet as basic wavelet and combining SVD filter and wavelet transform, a new de - noising method, which is Based on multi - dimension and multi-space de - noising method, is proposed. The implementation of this method is discussed the detail. Theoretical analysis and modeling show that the method has strong capacity of de - noising and keeping attributes of effective wave. It is a good tool for de - noising when the S/N ratio is poor. To give prominence to high frequency information of reflection event of important layer and to take account of other frequency information under processing seismic data, it is difficult for deconvolution filter to realize this goal. A filter from Fourier Transform has some problems for realizing the goal. In this paper, a new method is put forward, that is a method of processing seismic data in frequency division from wavelet transform and reconstruction. In ordinary seismic processing methods for resolution improvement, deconvolution operator has poor part characteristics, thus influencing the operator frequency. In wavelet transform, wavelet function has very good part characteristics. Frequency - division data processing in wavelet transform also brings quite good high resolution data, but it needs more time than deconvolution method does. On the basis of frequency - division processing method in wavelet domain, a new technique is put forward, which involves 1) designing filter operators equivalent to deconvolution operator in time and frequency domains in wavelet transform, 2) obtaining derivative wavelet function that is suitable to high - resolution seismic data processing, and 3) processing high resolution seismic data by deconvolution method in time domain. In the method of producing some instantaneous characteristic signals by using Hilbert transform, Hilbert transform is very sensitive to high - frequency random noise. As a result, even though there exist weak high - frequency noises in seismic signals, the obtained instantaneous characteristics of seismic signals may be still submerged by the noises. One method for having instantaneous characteristics of seismic signals in wavelet domain is put forward, which obtains directly the instantaneous characteristics of seismic signals by taking the characteristics of both the real part (real signals, namely seismic signals) and the imaginary part (the Hilbert transfom of real signals) of wavelet transform. The method has the functions of frequency division and noise removal. What is more, the weak wave whose frequency is lower than that of high - frequency random noise is retained in the obtained instantaneous characteristics of seismic signals, and the weak wave may be seen in instantaneous characteristic sections (such as instantaneous frequency, instantaneous phase and instantaneous amplitude). Impedance inversion is one of tools in the description of oil reservoir. one of methods in impedance inversion is Generalized Linear Inversion. This method has higher precision of inversion. But, this method is sensitive to noise of seismic data, so that error results are got. The description of oil reservoir in researching important geological layer, in order to give prominence to geological characteristics of the important layer, not only high frequency impedance to research thin sand layer, but other frequency impedance are needed. It is difficult for some impedance inversion method to realize the goal. Wavelet transform is very good in denoising and processing in frequency division. Therefore, in the paper, a method of impedance inversion is put forward based on wavelet transform, that is impedance inversion in frequency division from wavelet transform and reconstruction. in this paper, based on wavelet transform, methods of time - frequency analysis is given. Fanally, methods above are in application on real oil field - Sansan oil field.