油气勘探风险评价与决策技术研究

PetroChina and other national petroleum incorporations need rigorous procedures and practical methods in risk evaluation and exploration decision at home and abroad to safeguard their international exploration practice in exploration licence bidding, finding appropriate ratio of risk sharing with partners, as well as avoiding high risk projects and other key exploration activities. However, due to historical reasons, we are only at the beginning of a full study and methodology development in exploration risk evaluation and decision. No rigorous procedure and practical methods are available in our exercises of international exploration. Completely adopting foreign procedure, methods and tools by our national incorporations are not practical because of the differences of the current economic and management systems in China. The objective of this study is to establish a risk evaluation and decision system with independent intellectual property right in oil and gas exploration so that a smooth transition from our current practice into international norm can take place. The system developed in this dissertation includes the following four components: 1. A set of quantitative criteria for risk evaluation is derived on the basis of an anatomy of the parameters from thirty calibration regions national wide as well as the characteristics and the geological factors controlling oil and gas occurrence in the major petroleum-bearing basins in China, which provides the technical support for the risk quantification in oil and gas exploration. 2. Through analysis of existing methodology, procedure and methods of exploration risk evaluation considering spatial information are proposed. The method, utilizing Mahalanobis Distance (MD) and fuzzy logic for data and information integration, provides probabilistic models on the basis of MD and fuzzy logic classification criteria, thus quantifying the exploration risk using Bayesian theory. A projection of the geological risk into spatial domain provides a probability map of oil and gas occurrence in the area under study. The application of this method to the Nanpu Sag shows that this method not only correctly predicted the oil and gas occurrence in the areas where Beibu and Laoyemiao oil fields are found in the northwest of the onshore area, but also predicted Laopu south, Nanpu south and Hatuo potential areas in the offshore part where exploration maturity was very low. The prediction of the potential areas are subsequently confirmed by 17 exploration wells in the offshore area with 81% success, indicating this method is very effective for exploration risk visualization and reduction. 3. On the basis of “Methods and parameters of economic evaluation for petroleum exploration and development projects in China”, a ”pyramid” method for sensitivity analysis was developed, which meets not only the need for exploration target evaluation and exploration decision at home, but also allows a transition from our current practice to international norm in exploration decision. This provides the foundation for the development of a software product “Exploration economic evaluation and decision system of PetroChina” (EDSys). 4. To solve problem in methodology of exploration decision, effort was made on the method of project portfolio management. A drilling decision method was developed employing the concept of geologically risked net present value. This method overcame the dilemma of handling simultaneously both geological risk and portfolio uncertainty, thus casting light into the application of modern portfolio theory to the evaluation of high risk petroleum exploration projects.

Implication of scaling hierarchy associated with nonequilibrium: field and particulate

The advent of nanotechnology has necessitated a better understanding of how material microstructure changes at the atomic level would affect the macroscopic properties that control the performance. Such a challenge has uncovered many phenomena that were not previously understood and taken for granted. Among them are the basic foundation of dislocation theories which are now known to be inadequate. Simplifying assumptions invoked at the macroscale may not be applicable at the micro- and/or nanoscale. There are implications of scaling hierrachy associated with in-homegeneity and nonequilibrium. of physical systems. What is taken to be homogeneous and equilibrium at the macroscale may not be so when the physical size of the material is reduced to microns. These fundamental issues cannot be dispensed at will for the sake of convenience because they could alter the outcome of predictions. Even more unsatisfying is the lack of consistency in modeling physical systems. This could translate to the inability for identifying the relevant manufacturing parameters and rendering the end product unpractical because of high cost. Advanced composite and ceramic materials are cases in point. Discussed are potential pitfalls for applying models at both the atomic and continuum levels. No encouragement is made to unravel the truth of nature. Let it be partiuclates, a smooth continuum or a combination of both. The present trend of development in scaling tends to seek for different characteristic lengths of material microstructures with or without the influence of time effects. Much will be learned from atomistic simulation models to show how results could differ as boundary conditions and scales are changed. Quantum mechanics, continuum and cosmological models provide evidence that no general approach is in sight. Of immediate interest is perhaps the establishment of greater precision in terminology so as to better communicate results involving multiscale physical events.

Nanoindentation of thin-film-substrate system: Determination of film hardness and Young's modulus

In the present paper, the hardness and Young's modulus of film-substrate systems are determined by means of nanoindentation experiments and modified models. Aluminum film and two kinds of substrates; i.e. glass and silicon, are studied. Nanoindentation XP II and continuous stiffness mode are used during the experiments. In order to avoid the influence of the Oliver and Pharr method used in the experiments, the experiment data are analyzed with the constant Young's modulus assumption and the equal hardness assumption. The volume fraction model (CZ model) proposed by Fabes et al. (1992) is used and modified to analyze the measured hardness. The method proposed by Doerner and Nix (DN formula) (1986) is modified to analyze the measured Young's modulus. Two kinds of modified empirical formula are used to predict the present experiment results and those in the literature, which include the results of two kinds of systems, i.e., a soft film on a hard substrate and a hard film on a soft substrate. In the modified CZ model, the indentation influence angle, phi, is considered as a relevant physical parameter, which embodies the effects of the indenter tip radius, pile-up or sink-in phenomena and deformation of film and substrate.

Study of three elastic-plastic constitutive models by non-proportional finite deformations of OFHC copper

Experimental stress-strain data of OFHC copper first under torsion to 13% and then under torsion-tension to about 10% are used to study the characteristics of three elastic-plastic constitutive models: Chaboche's super-positional nonlinear model, Dafalias and Popov's two surface model and Watanabe and Atluri's version of the endochronic model. The three models, originally oriented for infinitesimal deformation, have been extended for finite deformation. The results show (a) the Mises-type yield surface used in the three models brings about significant departure of the predictions from the experimental data; (b) Chaboche's and Dafalias' models are easier than Watanabe and Atluri's model in determining the material parameters in them, and (c) Chaboche's and Watanabe & Atluri's models produce almost the same prediction to the data, while Dafalias' model cannot accurately predict the plastic deformations when a loading path changes in its direction. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Code conversion from signed-digit to complement representation based on look-ahead optical logic operations

We present, for the first time to our knowledge, a generalized lookahead logic algorithm for number conversion from signed-digit to complement representation. By properly encoding the signed-digits, all the operations are performed by binary logic, and unified logical expressions can be obtained for conversion from modified-signed-digit (MSD) to 2's complement, trinary signed-digit (TSD) to 3's complement, and quarternary signed-digit (QSD) to 4's complement. For optical implementation, a parallel logical array module using an electron-trapping device is employed and experimental results are shown. This optical module is suitable for implementing complex logic functions in the form of the sum of the product. The algorithm and architecture are compatible with a general-purpose optoelectronic computing system. (C) 2001 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

Comparative studies on parallel and antiparallel duplex and triplex DNA

Parallel strand models for base sequences d(A)(10). d(T)(10), d(AT)(5) . d(TA)(5), d(G(5)C(5)). d(C(5)G(5)), d(GC)(5) . d(CG)(5) and d(CTATAGGGAT). d(GATATCCCTA), where reverse Watson-Crick A-T pairing with two H-bonds and reverse Watson-Crick G-C pairing with one H-bond or with two H-bonds were adopted, and three models of d(T)(14). d(A)(14). d(T)(14) triple helix with different strand orientations were built up by molecular architecture and energy minimization. Comparisons of parallel duplex models with their corresponding B-DNA models and comparisons among the three triple helices showed: (i) conformational energies of parallel AT duplex models were a little lower, while for GC duplex models they were about 8% higher than that of their corresponding B-DNA models; (ii) the energy differences between parallel and B-type duplex models and among the three triple helices arose mainly from base stacking energies, especially for GC base pairing; (iii) the parallel duplexes with one H-bond G-C pairs were less stable than those with two H-bonds G-C pairs. The present paper includes a brief discussion about the effect of base stacking and base sequences on DNA conformations. (C) 1997 Academic Press Limited.

Gastropods on submersed macrophytes in Yangtze lakes: Community characteristics and empirical modelling

Epiphytic gastropods in Yangtze lakes have suffered from large-scale declines of submersed macrophytes during past decades. To better understand what controls gastropod community, monthly investigations were carried out in four Yangtze lakes during December, 2001-March, 2003. Composed of 23 species belonging to Pulmonata and Prosobranchia, the community is characterized by the constitution of small individuals. The average density and biomass were 417 +/- 160 ind/m(2) and 18.05 +/- 7.43 g/m(2), with maxima a-round August. Submersed macrophyte biomass is shown to be the key factor affecting species number, density, and biomass of gastropods. Accordingly, a series of annual and seasonal models yielding high predictive powers were generated. Preference analyses demonstrated that pulmonates and prosobranchs with different respiratory organs prefer different macrophyte functional groups.

Atomic configurations of dislocation core and twin boundaries in 3C-SiC studied by high-resolution electron microscopy

The defects in 3C-SiC film grown on (001) plane of Si substrate were studied using a 200 kV high-resolution electron microscope with point resolution of 0.2 nm. A posterior image processing technique, the image deconvolution, was utilized in combination with the image contrast analysis to distinguish atoms of Si from C distant from each other by 0.109 nm in the [110] projected image. The principle of the image processing technique utilized and the related image contrast theory is briefly presented. The procedures of transforming an experimental image that does not reflect the crystal structure intuitively into the structure map and of identifying Si and C atoms from the map are described. The atomic configurations for a 30 degrees partial dislocation and a microtwin have been derived at atomic level. It has been determined that the 30 degrees partial dislocation terminates in C atom and the segment of microtwin is sandwiched between two 180 degrees rotation twins. The corresponding stacking sequences are derived and atomic models are constructed according to the restored structure maps for both the 30 degrees partial dislocation and microtwin. Images were simulated based on the two models to affirm the above-mentioned results.

A new development on ANN in China - Biomimetic pattern recognition and multi weight vector neurons

A new model of pattern recognition principles-Biomimetic Pattern Recognition, which is based on "matter cognition" instead of "matter classification", has been proposed. As a important means realizing Biomimetic Pattern Recognition, the mathematical model and analyzing method of ANN get breakthrough: a novel all-purpose mathematical model has been advanced, which can simulate all kinds of neuron architecture, including RBF and BP models. As the same time this model has been realized using hardware; the high-dimension space geometry method, a new means to analyzing ANN, has been researched.

A Novel Optical Gate by Integration of a Photodiode and an Electroabsorption Modulator

A compact and stable three-port optical gate has been successfully fabricated by monolithically integrating asimple photodiode and an electroabsorption modulator. The gate shows an excellent DC logic "and" function with differ-ent load resistors. Its dynamical characteristics without packaging have also been measured. We observed a dynamic extinc-tion ratio of over 7dB with a 950Ω load resistor and a 7mW control light power at 622Mbit/s.

Biomimetic (topological) pattern recognition - A new model of pattern recognition theory and its application

A new theoretical model of Pattern Recognition principles was proposed, which is based on "matter cognition" instead of "matter classification" in traditional statistical Pattern Recognition. This new model is closer to the function of human being, rather than traditional statistical Pattern Recognition using "optimal separating" as its main principle. So the new model of Pattern Recognition is called the Biomimetic Pattern Recognition (BPR)(1). Its mathematical basis is placed on topological analysis of the sample set in the high dimensional feature space. Therefore, it is also called the Topological Pattern Recognition (TPR). The fundamental idea of this model is based on the fact of the continuity in the feature space of any one of the certain kinds of samples. We experimented with the Biomimetic Pattern Recognition (BPR) by using artificial neural networks, which act through covering the high dimensional geometrical distribution of the sample set in the feature space. Onmidirectionally cognitive tests were done on various kinds of animal and vehicle models of rather similar shapes. For the total 8800 tests, the correct recognition rate is 99.87%. The rejection rate is 0.13% and on the condition of zero error rates, the correct rate of BPR was much better than that of RBF-SVM.

A new development on ANN in China - Biomimetic pattern recognition and multi weight vector neurons

A new model of pattern recognition principles-Biomimetic Pattern Recognition, which is based on "matter cognition" instead of "matter classification", has been proposed. As a important means realizing Biomimetic Pattern Recognition, the mathematical model and analyzing method of ANN get breakthrough: a novel all-purpose mathematical model has been advanced, which can simulate all kinds of neuron architecture, including RBF and BP models. As the same time this model has been realized using hardware; the high-dimension space geometry method, a new means to analyzing ANN, has been researched.

Cure processing modeling and cure cycle simulation of epoxy-terminated poly(phenylene ether ketone) .2. Chemorheological modeling

Chemorheology and corresponding models for an epoxy-terminated poly(phenylene ether ketone) (E-PEK) and 4,4'-diaminodiphenyl sulfone (DDS) system were investigated using a differential scanning calorimeter (DSC) and a cone-and-plate rheometer. For this system, the reported four-parameter chemorheological model and modified WLF chemorheological model can only be used in an isothermal or nonisothermal process, respectively. In order to predict the resin viscosity variation during a stepwise temperature cure cycle actually used, a new model based on the combination of the four-parameter model and the modified WLF model was developed. The combined model can predict the resin viscosity variation during a stepwise temperature cure cycle more accurately than the above two models. In order to simplify the establishment of this model, a new five-parameter chemorheological model was then developed. The parameters in this five-parameter model can be determined through very few rheology and DSC experiments. This model is practicable to describe the resin viscosity variation for isothermal, nonisothermal, or stepwise temperature cure cycles accurately. The five-parameter chemorheological model has also successfully been used in the E-PEK systems with two other curing agents, i.e., the diamine curing agent with the addition of a boron trifluride monoethylamine (BF3-MEA) accelerator and an anhydride curing agent (hexahydrophthalic acid anhydride). (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.