355 resultados para Bayesian probability
Resumo:
The vibro-acoustic response of built-up structures, consisting of stiff components with low modal density and flexible components with high modal density, is sensitive to small imperfections in the flexible components. In this paper, the uncertainty of the response is considered by modeling the low modal density master system as deterministic and the high modal density subsystems in a nonparametric stochastic way, i.e., carrying a diffuse wave field, and by subsequently computing the response probability density function. The master system's mean squared response amplitude follows a singular noncentral complex Wishart distribution conditional on the subsystem energies. For a single degree of freedom, this is equivalent to a chi-square or an exponential distribution, depending on the loading conditions. The subsystem energies follow approximately a chi-square distribution when their relative variance is smaller than unity. The results are validated by application to plate structures, and good agreement with Monte Carlo simulations is found. © 2012 Acoustical Society of America.
Resumo:
We present a new haplotype-based approach for inferring local genetic ancestry of individuals in an admixed population. Most existing approaches for local ancestry estimation ignore the latent genetic relatedness between ancestral populations and treat them as independent. In this article, we exploit such information by building an inheritance model that describes both the ancestral populations and the admixed population jointly in a unified framework. Based on an assumption that the common hypothetical founder haplotypes give rise to both the ancestral and the admixed population haplotypes, we employ an infinite hidden Markov model to characterize each ancestral population and further extend it to generate the admixed population. Through an effective utilization of the population structural information under a principled nonparametric Bayesian framework, the resulting model is significantly less sensitive to the choice and the amount of training data for ancestral populations than state-of-the-art algorithms. We also improve the robustness under deviation from common modeling assumptions by incorporating population-specific scale parameters that allow variable recombination rates in different populations. Our method is applicable to an admixed population from an arbitrary number of ancestral populations and also performs competitively in terms of spurious ancestry proportions under a general multiway admixture assumption. We validate the proposed method by simulation under various admixing scenarios and present empirical analysis results from a worldwide-distributed dataset from the Human Genome Diversity Project.
Resumo:
Atmospheric effects can significantly degrade the reliability of free-space optical communications. One such effect is scintillation, caused by atmospheric turbulence, refers to random fluctuations in the irradiance and phase of the received laser beam. In this paper we inv stigate the use of multiple lasers and multiple apertures to mitigate scintillation. Since the scintillation process is slow, we adopt a block fading channel model and study the outage probability under the assumptions of orthogonal pulse-position modulation and non-ideal photodetection. Assuming perfect receiver channel state information (CSI), we derive the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) exponents for the cases when the scintillation is lognormal, exponential and gammagamma distributed, which cover a wide range of atmospheric turbulence conditions. Furthermore, when CSI is also available at the transmitter, we illustrate very large gains in SNR are possible (in some cases larger than 15 dB) by adapting the transmitted power. Under a long-term power constraint, we outline fundamental design criteria via a simple expression that relates the required number of lasers and apertures for a given code rate and number of codeword blocks to completely remove system outages. Copyright © 2009 IEEE.
Resumo:
Latent variable models for network data extract a summary of the relational structure underlying an observed network. The simplest possible models subdivide nodes of the network into clusters; the probability of a link between any two nodes then depends only on their cluster assignment. Currently available models can be classified by whether clusters are disjoint or are allowed to overlap. These models can explain a "flat" clustering structure. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a natural approach to capture more complex dependencies. We propose a model in which objects are characterised by a latent feature vector. Each feature is itself partitioned into disjoint groups (subclusters), corresponding to a second layer of hierarchy. In experimental comparisons, the model achieves significantly improved predictive performance on social and biological link prediction tasks. The results indicate that models with a single layer hierarchy over-simplify real networks.
Resumo:
Reconstruction of an image from a set of projections has been adapted to generate multidimensional nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra, which have discrete features that are relatively sparsely distributed in space. For this reason, a reliable reconstruction can be made from a small number of projections. This new concept is called Projection Reconstruction NMR (PR-NMR). In this paper, multidimensional NMR spectra are reconstructed by Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC). This statistical method generates samples under the assumption that each peak consists of a small number of parameters: position of peak centres, peak amplitude, and peak width. In order to find the number of peaks and shape, RJMCMC has several moves: birth, death, merge, split, and invariant updating. The reconstruction schemes are tested on a set of six projections derived from the three-dimensional 700 MHz HNCO spectrum of a protein HasA.
Resumo:
We propose a principled algorithm for robust Bayesian filtering and smoothing in nonlinear stochastic dynamic systems when both the transition function and the measurement function are described by non-parametric Gaussian process (GP) models. GPs are gaining increasing importance in signal processing, machine learning, robotics, and control for representing unknown system functions by posterior probability distributions. This modern way of system identification is more robust than finding point estimates of a parametric function representation. Our principled filtering/smoothing approach for GP dynamic systems is based on analytic moment matching in the context of the forward-backward algorithm. Our numerical evaluations demonstrate the robustness of the proposed approach in situations where other state-of-the-art Gaussian filters and smoothers can fail. © 2011 IEEE.
Resumo:
In this paper, we consider Bayesian interpolation and parameter estimation in a dynamic sinusoidal model. This model is more flexible than the static sinusoidal model since it enables the amplitudes and phases of the sinusoids to be time-varying. For the dynamic sinusoidal model, we derive a Bayesian inference scheme for the missing observations, hidden states and model parameters of the dynamic model. The inference scheme is based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo method known as Gibbs sampler. We illustrate the performance of the inference scheme to the application of packet-loss concealment of lost audio and speech packets. © EURASIP, 2010.
Resumo:
MOTIVATION: The integration of multiple datasets remains a key challenge in systems biology and genomic medicine. Modern high-throughput technologies generate a broad array of different data types, providing distinct-but often complementary-information. We present a Bayesian method for the unsupervised integrative modelling of multiple datasets, which we refer to as MDI (Multiple Dataset Integration). MDI can integrate information from a wide range of different datasets and data types simultaneously (including the ability to model time series data explicitly using Gaussian processes). Each dataset is modelled using a Dirichlet-multinomial allocation (DMA) mixture model, with dependencies between these models captured through parameters that describe the agreement among the datasets. RESULTS: Using a set of six artificially constructed time series datasets, we show that MDI is able to integrate a significant number of datasets simultaneously, and that it successfully captures the underlying structural similarity between the datasets. We also analyse a variety of real Saccharomyces cerevisiae datasets. In the two-dataset case, we show that MDI's performance is comparable with the present state-of-the-art. We then move beyond the capabilities of current approaches and integrate gene expression, chromatin immunoprecipitation-chip and protein-protein interaction data, to identify a set of protein complexes for which genes are co-regulated during the cell cycle. Comparisons to other unsupervised data integration techniques-as well as to non-integrative approaches-demonstrate that MDI is competitive, while also providing information that would be difficult or impossible to extract using other methods.
Resumo:
We present algorithms for tracking and reasoning of local traits in the subsystem level based on the observed emergent behavior of multiple coordinated groups in potentially cluttered environments. Our proposed Bayesian inference schemes, which are primarily based on (Markov chain) Monte Carlo sequential methods, include: 1) an evolving network-based multiple object tracking algorithm that is capable of categorizing objects into groups, 2) a multiple cluster tracking algorithm for dealing with prohibitively large number of objects, and 3) a causality inference framework for identifying dominant agents based exclusively on their observed trajectories.We use these as building blocks for developing a unified tracking and behavioral reasoning paradigm. Both synthetic and realistic examples are provided for demonstrating the derived concepts. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Resumo:
In this paper we study parameter estimation for time series with asymmetric α-stable innovations. The proposed methods use a Poisson sum series representation (PSSR) for the asymmetric α-stable noise to express the process in a conditionally Gaussian framework. That allows us to implement Bayesian parameter estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We further enhance the series representation by introducing a novel approximation of the series residual terms in which we are able to characterise the mean and variance of the approximation. Simulations illustrate the proposed framework applied to linear time series, estimating the model parameter values and model order P for an autoregressive (AR(P)) model driven by asymmetric α-stable innovations. © 2012 IEEE.