Value of information in product recovery decisions: A Bayesian approach

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question 'what is its value?' is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

Linking energy policy, electricity generation and transmission using strong sustainability and co-optimization

The design of a sustainable electricity generation and transmission system is based on the established science of anthropogenic climate change and the realization that depending on imported fossil-fuels is becoming a measure of energy insecurity of supply. A model is proposed which integrates generation fuel mix composition, assignment of plants and optimized power flow, using Portugal as a case study. The result of this co-optimized approach is an overall set of generator types/fuels which increases the diversity of Portuguese electricity supply, lowers its dependency on imported fuels by 14.62% and moves the country towards meeting its regional and international obligations of 31% energy from renewables by 2020 and a 27% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2012, respectively. The quantity and composition of power generation at each bus is specified, with particular focus on quantifying the amount of distributed generation. Based on other works, the resultant, overall distributed capacity penetration of 19.02% of total installed generation is expected to yield positive network benefits. Thus, the model demonstrates that national energy policy and technical deployment can be linked through sustainability and, moreover, that the respective goals may be mutually achieved via holistic, integrated design. ©2009 IEEE.

Defects Detection and Assessment in Concrete Surfaces

Aside from cracks, the impact of other surface defects, such as air pockets and discoloration, can be detrimental to the quality of concrete in terms of strength, appearance and durability. For this reason, local and national codes provide standards for quantifying the quality impact of these concrete surface defects and owners plan for regular visual inspections to monitor surface conditions. However, manual visual inspection of concrete surfaces is a qualitative (and subjective) process with often unreliable results due to its reliance on inspectors’ own criteria and experience. Also, it is labor intensive and time-consuming. This paper presents a novel, automated concrete surface defects detection and assessment approach that addresses these issues by automatically quantifying the extent of surface deterioration. According to this approach, images of the surface shot from a certain angle/distance can be used to automatically detect the number and size of surface air pockets, and the degree of surface discoloration. The proposed method uses histogram equalization and filtering to extract such defects and identify their properties (e.g. size, shape, location). These properties are used to quantify the degree of impact on the concrete surface quality and provide a numerical tool to help inspectors accurately evaluate concrete surfaces. The method has been implemented in C++ and results that validate its performance are presented.

Shape vs. volume: Invariant shape descriptors for 3D region of interest characterization in MRI

We propose a new approach for quantifying regions of interest (ROIs) in medical image data. Rotationally invariant shape descriptors (ISDs) were applied to 3D brain regions extracted from MRI scans of 5 Parkinson's patients and 10 control subjects. We concentrated on the thalamus and the caudate nucleus since prior studies have suggested they are affected in Parkinson's disease (PD). In the caudate, both the ISD and volumetric analyses found significant differences between control and PD subjects. The ISD analysis however revealed additional differences between the left and right caudate nuclei in both control and PD subjects. In the thalamus, the volumetric analysis showed significant differences between PD and control subjects, while ISD analysis found significant differences between the left and right thalami in control subjects but not in PD patients, implying disease-induced shape changes. These results suggest that employing ISDs for ROI characterization both complements and extends traditional volumetric analyses. © 2006 IEEE.

Shock Propagation and MPT Noise From a Transonic Rotor in Nonuniform Flow

One of the major challenges in high-speed fan stages used in compact, embedded propulsion systems is inlet distortion noise. A body-force-based approach for the prediction of multiple-pure-tone (MPT) noise was previously introduced and validated. In this paper, it is employed with the objective of quantifying the effects of nonuniform flow on the generation and propagation of MPT noise. First-of-their-kind back-to-back coupled aero-acoustic computations were carried out using the new approach for conventional and serpentine inlets. Both inlets delivered flow to the same NASA/GE R4 fan rotor at equal corrected mass flow rates. Although the source strength at the fan is increased by 38 dB in sound power level due to the nonuniform inflow, far-field noise for the serpentine inlet duct is increased on average by only 3.1 dBA overall sound pressure level in the forward arc. This is due to the redistribution of acoustic energy to frequencies below 11 times the shaft frequency and the apparent cut-off of tones at higher frequencies including blade-passing tones. The circumferential extent of the inlet swirl distortion at the fan was found to be two blade pitches, or 1/11th of the circumference, suggesting a relationship between the circumferential extent of the inlet distortion and the apparent cut-off frequency perceived in the far field. A first-principles-based model of the generation of shock waves from a transonic rotor in nonuniform flow showed that the effects of nonuniform flow on acoustic wave propagation, which cannot be captured by the simplified model, are more dominant than those of inlet flow distortion on source noise. It demonstrated that nonlinear, coupled aerodynamic and aero-acoustic computations, such as those presented in this paper, are necessary to assess the propagation through nonuniform mean flow. A parametric study of serpentine inlet designs is underway to quantify these propagation effects. © 2013 American Society of Mechanical Engineers.

Shock propagation and MPT noise from a transonic rotor in non-uniform flow

One of the major challenges in hig4h-speed fan stages used in compact, embedded propulsion systems is inlet distortion noise. A body-force-based approach for the prediction of multiple-pure-tone (MPT) noise was previously introduced and validated. In this paper, it is employed with the objective of quantifying the effects of non-uniform flow on the generation and propagation of MPT noise. First-of-their-kind back-to-back coupled aero-acoustic computations were carried out using the new approach for conventional and serpentine inlets. Both inlets delivered flow to the same NASA/GE R4 fan rotor at equal corrected mass flow rates. Although the source strength at the fan is increased by 45 dB in sound power level due to the non-uniform inflow, farfield noise for the serpentine inlet duct is increased on average by only 3.1 dBA overall sound pressure level in the forward arc. This is due to the redistribution of acoustic energy to frequencies below 11 times the shaft frequency and the apparent cut-off of tones at higher frequencies including blade-passing tones. The circumferential extent of the inlet swirl distortion at the fan was found to be 2 blade pitches, or 1/11th of the circumference, suggesting a relationship between the circumferential extent of the inlet distortion and the apparent cut-off frequency perceived in the far field. A first-principles-based model of the generation of shock waves from a transonic rotor in non-uniform flow showed that the effects of non-uniform flow on acoustic wave propagation, which cannot be captured by the simplified model, are more dominant than those of inlet flow distortion on source noise. It demonstrated that non-linear, coupled aerodynamic and aeroacoustic computations, such as those presented in this paper, are necessary to assess the propagation through non-uniform mean flow. A parametric study of serpentine inlet designs is underway to quantify these propagation effects. Copyright © 2011 by ASME.

Liquid fuel visualization using laser-induced fluoresence during cold start

The presence of liquid fuel inside the engine cylinder is believed to be a strong contributor to the high levels of hydrocarbon emissions from spark ignition (SI) engines during the warm-up period. Quantifying and determining the fate of the liquid fuel that enters the cylinder is the first step in understanding the process of emissions formation. This work uses planar laser induced fluorescence (PLIF) to visualize the liquid fuel present in the cylinder. The fluorescing compounds in indolene, and mixtures of iso-octane with dopants of different boiling points (acetone and 3-pentanone) were used to trace the behavior of different volatility components. Images were taken of three different planes through the engine intersecting the intake valve region. A closed valve fuel injection strategy was used, as this is the strategy most commonly used in practice. Background subtraction and masking were both performed to reduce the effect of any spurious fluorescence. The images were analyzed on both a time and crank angle (CA) basis, showing the time of maximum liquid fuel present in the cylinder and the effect of engine events on the inflow of liquid fuel. The results show details of the liquid fuel distribution as it enters the engine as a function of crankangle degree, volatility and location in the cylinder. A. semi-quantitative analysis based on the integration of the image intensities provides additional information on the temporal distribution of the liquid fuel flow. © 1998 Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc.

Analysis of high pressure premixed flames using Equivalent Reactor Networks for predicting NOx emissions

This paper describes a computational study of lean premixed high pressure methane-air flames, using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) together with a reactor network approach. A detailed chemical reaction mechanism is employed to predict pollutant concentrations, placing emphasis on nitrogen oxide emissions. The reacting flow field is divided into separate zones in which homogeneity of the physical and chemical conditions prevails. The defined zones are interconnected forming an Equivalent Reactor Network (ERN). Three flames are examined for which experimental data is available. Flame A is characterised by an equivalence ratio of 0.43 while Flames B and C are richer with equivalence ratios of 0.5 and 0.56 respectively. Computations are performed for a range of operating conditions, quantifying the effect in the emitted NOx levels. Model predictions are compared against the available experimental data. Sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the effect of the network size, in order to define the optimum number of reactors for accurate predictions of the species mass fractions. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonautonomous contact guidance signaling during collective cell migration.

Directed migration of groups of cells is a critical aspect of tissue morphogenesis that ensures proper tissue organization and, consequently, function. Cells moving in groups, unlike single cells, must coordinate their migratory behavior to maintain tissue integrity. During directed migration, cells are guided by a combination of mechanical and chemical cues presented by neighboring cells and the surrounding extracellular matrix. One important class of signals that guide cell migration includes topographic cues. Although the contact guidance response of individual cells to topographic cues has been extensively characterized, little is known about the response of groups of cells to topographic cues, the impact of such cues on cell-cell coordination within groups, and the transmission of nonautonomous contact guidance information between neighboring cells. Here, we explore these phenomena by quantifying the migratory response of confluent monolayers of epithelial and fibroblast cells to contact guidance cues provided by grooved topography. We show that, in both sparse clusters and confluent sheets, individual cells are contact-guided by grooves and show more coordinated behavior on grooved versus flat substrates. Furthermore, we demonstrate both in vitro and in silico that the guidance signal provided by a groove can propagate between neighboring cells in a confluent monolayer, and that the distance over which signal propagation occurs is not significantly influenced by the strength of cell-cell junctions but is an emergent property, similar to cellular streaming, triggered by mechanical exclusion interactions within the collective system.

Bayesian parameter identification for vibro-acoustic models with nonparametric uncertainty

Vibration and acoustic analysis at higher frequencies faces two challenges: computing the response without using an excessive number of degrees of freedom, and quantifying its uncertainty due to small spatial variations in geometry, material properties and boundary conditions. Efficient models make use of the observation that when the response of a decoupled vibro-acoustic subsystem is sufficiently sensitive to uncertainty in such spatial variations, the local statistics of its natural frequencies and mode shapes saturate to universal probability distributions. This holds irrespective of the causes that underly these spatial variations and thus leads to a nonparametric description of uncertainty. This work deals with the identification of uncertain parameters in such models by using experimental data. One of the difficulties is that both experimental errors and modeling errors, due to the nonparametric uncertainty that is inherent to the model type, are present. This is tackled by employing a Bayesian inference strategy. The prior probability distribution of the uncertain parameters is constructed using the maximum entropy principle. The likelihood function that is subsequently computed takes the experimental information, the experimental errors and the modeling errors into account. The posterior probability distribution, which is computed with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, provides a full uncertainty quantification of the identified parameters, and indicates how well their uncertainty is reduced, with respect to the prior information, by the experimental data. © 2013 Taylor & Francis Group, London.

Exploring the use of sensors to measure behavioral interactions: an experimental evaluation of using hand trajectories.

Humans appear to be sensitive to relative small changes in their surroundings. These changes are often initially perceived as irrelevant, but they can cause significant changes in behavior. However, how exactly people's behavior changes is often hard to quantify. A reliable and valid tool is needed in order to address such a question, ideally measuring an important point of interaction, such as the hand. Wearable-body-sensor systems can be used to obtain valuable, behavioral information. These systems are particularly useful for assessing functional interactions that occur between the endpoints of the upper limbs and our surroundings. A new method is explored that consists of computing hand position using a wearable sensor system and validating it against a gold standard reference measurement (optical tracking device). Initial outcomes related well to the gold standard measurements (r = 0.81) showing an acceptable average root mean square error of 0.09 meters. Subsequently, the use of this approach was further investigated by measuring differences in motor behavior, in response to a changing environment. Three subjects were asked to perform a water pouring task with three slightly different containers. Wavelet analysis was introduced to assess how motor consistency was affected by these small environmental changes. Results showed that the behavioral motor adjustments to a variable environment could be assessed by applying wavelet coherence techniques. Applying these procedures in everyday life, combined with correct research methodologies, can assist in quantifying how environmental changes can cause alterations in our motor behavior.