Proposal and validation of methodologies for the categorisation of continuous variables in the development of prediction models

158 p.

La internacionalización de la empresa manufacturera española: Efectos del capital humano genérico y específico

[ES] La eficiencia y capacidad competitiva de las organizaciones depende —además de otros factores— de la calidad del capital humano de que disponen. Así, el objetivo de este trabajo es analizar el efecto del capital humano de la empresa tanto en la decisión de entrar en los mercados internacionales como en la intensidad de ventas realizadas en dichos mercados utilizando modelos de regresión logit y tobit. El trabajo empírico se realiza sobre una muestra de empresas manufactureras españolas. El capital humano se evalúa desde una doble óptica, por un lado se considera la formación genérica de los empleados y por otro lado la formación específica de los mismos. Los resultados muestran que la formación genérica y la específica tienen un efecto positivo y significativo tanto sobre la decisión de entrar en los mercados internacionales como en la intensidad de ventas realizadas en dichos mercados.

¿Bancos con Problemas? Un Sistema de Alerta Temprana para la Prevención de Crisis Bancarias

[ES] Las autoridades reguladoras y supervisoras de los sistemas financieros han probado diversos métodos para intentar encontrar un procedimiento eficaz en la elaboración de un sistema de alerta temprana de las crisis bancarias. Los Modelos de Regresión Logística han sido usados aunque han mostrado algunas debilidades, por lo que se necesitan nuevos y mejores métodos. La crisis bancaria ocurrida en la República Dominicana entre los años 2002 y 2004 se ha usado para comparar la eficacia de la Regresión Logística frente al uso del método Support Vector Machines (SVM) para la detección de crisis bancarias.

Cannabis use and involuntary admission may mediate long-term adherence in first-episode psychosis patients: a prospective longitudinal study

Background: This study aimed to examine factors associated with treatment adherence in first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients followed up over 8 years, especially involuntary first admission and stopping cannabis use. Methods: This prospective, longitudinal study of FEP patients collected data on symptoms, adherence, functioning,and substance use. Adherence to treatment was the main outcome variable and was categorized as ‘good’ or ‘bad’. Cannabis use during follow-up was stratified as continued use, stopped use, and never used. Bivariate and logistic regression models identified factors significantly associated with adherence and changes in adherence over the 8-year follow-up period. Results: Of the 98 FEP patients analyzed at baseline, 57.1% had involuntary first admission, 74.4% bad adherence,and 52% cannabis use. Good adherence at baseline was associated with Global Assessment of Functioning score (p = 0.019), Hamilton Depression Rating Scale score (p = 0.017) and voluntary admission (p < 0.001). Adherence patterns over 8 years included: 43.4% patients always bad, 26.1% always good, 25% improved from bad to good. Among the improved adherence group, 95.7% had involuntary first admission and 38.9% stopped cannabis use. In the subgroup of patients with bad adherence at baseline, involuntary first admission and quitting cannabis use during follow up were associated with improved adherence. Conclusions: The long-term association between treatment adherence and type of first admission and cannabis use in FEP patients suggest targets for intervention to improve clinical outcomes.

Determinants of self-reported smoking and misclassification during pregnancy, and analysis of optimal cut-off points for urinary cotinine: a cross-sectional study

10 p.

The COMT Val158 Met polymorphism as an associated risk factor for Alzheimer disease and mild cognitive impairment in APOE 4 carriers

Background: The aim of this study is to examine the influence of the catechol-O-methyltranferase (COMT) gene (polymorphism Val158 Met) as a risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment of amnesic type (MCI), and its synergistic effect with the apolipoprotein E gene (APOE). A total of 223 MCI patients, 345 AD and 253 healthy controls were analyzed. Clinical criteria and neuropsychological tests were used to establish diagnostic groups. The DNA Bank of the University of the Basque Country (UPV-EHU) (Spain) determined COMT Val158 Met and APOE genotypes using real time polymerase chain reaction (rtPCR) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLPs), respectively. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to determine the risk of AD and MCI. Results: Neither COMT alleles nor genotypes were independent risk factors for AD or MCI. The high activity genotypes (GG and AG) showed a synergistic effect with APOE epsilon 4 allele, increasing the risk of AD (OR = 5.96, 95% CI 2.74-12.94, p < 0.001 and OR = 6.71, 95% CI 3.36-13.41, p < 0.001 respectivily). In AD patients this effect was greater in women. In MCI patients such as synergistic effect was only found between AG and APOE epsilon 4 allele (OR = 3.21 95% CI 1.56-6.63, p = 0.02) and was greater in men (OR = 5.88 95% CI 1.69-20.42, p < 0.01). Conclusion: COMT (Val158 Met) polymorphism is not an independent risk factor for AD or MCI, but shows a synergistic effect with APOE epsilon 4 allele that proves greater in women with AD.

Development of appropriateness explicit criteria for cataract extraction by phacoemulsification

Background: Consensus development techniques were used in the late 1980s to create explicit criteria for the appropriateness of cataract extraction. We developed a new appropriateness of indications tool for cataract following the RAND method. We tested the validity of our panel results. Methods: Criteria were developed using a modified Delphi panel judgment process. A panel of 12 ophthalmologists was assembled. Ratings were analyzed regarding the level of agreement among panelists. We studied the influence of all variables on the final panel score using linear and logistic regression models. The explicit criteria developed were summarized by classification and regression tree analysis. Results: Of the 765 indications evaluated by the main panel in the second round, 32.9% were found appropriate, 30.1% uncertain, and 37% inappropriate. Agreement was found in 53% of the indications and disagreement in 0.9%. Seven variables were considered to create the indications and divided into three groups: simple cataract, with diabetic retinopathy, or with other ocular pathologies. The preoperative visual acuity in the cataractous eye and visual function were the variables that best explained the panel scoring. The panel results were synthesized and presented in three decision trees. Misclassification error in the decision trees, as compared with the panel original criteria, was 5.3%. Conclusion: The parameters tested showed acceptable validity for an evaluation tool. These results support the use of this indication algorithm as a screening tool for assessing the appropriateness of cataract extraction in field studies and for the development of practice guidelines.

Integrated treatment of first episode psychosis with online training (e-learning): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: The integrated treatment of first episode psychosis has been shown to improve functionality and negative symptoms in previous studies. In this paper, we describe a study of integrated treatment (individual psychoeducation complementary to pharmacotherapy) versus treatment as usual, comparing results at baseline with those at 6-month re-assessment (at the end of the study) for these patients, and online training of professionals to provide this complementary treatment, with the following objectives: 1) to compare the efficacy of individual psychoeducation as add-on treatment versus treatment as usual in improving psychotic and mood symptoms; 2) to compare adherence to medication, functioning, insight, social response, quality of life, and brain-derived neurotrophic factor, between both groups; and 3) to analyse the efficacy of online training of psychotherapists. Methods/design: This is a single-blind randomised clinical trial including patients with first episode psychosis from hospitals across Spain, randomly assigned to either a control group with pharmacotherapy and regular sessions with their psychiatrist (treatment as usual) or an intervention group with integrated care including treatment as usual plus a psychoeducational intervention (14 sessions). Training for professionals involved at each participating centre was provided by the coordinating centre (University Hospital of Alava) through video conferences. Patients are evaluated with an extensive battery of tests assessing clinical and sociodemographic characteristics (Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale, Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression, Scale to Assess Unawareness of Mental Disorders, Strauss and Carpenter Prognostic Scale, Global Assessment of Functioning Scale, Morisky Green Adherence Scale, Functioning Assessment Short Test, World Health Organization Quality of Life instrument WHOQOL-BREF (an abbreviated version of the WHOQOL-100), and EuroQoL questionnaire), and brain-derived neurotrophic factor levels are measured in peripheral blood at baseline and at 6 months. The statistical analysis, including bivariate analysis, linear and logistic regression models, will be performed using SPSS. Discussion: This is an innovative study that includes the assessment of an integrated intervention for patients with first episode psychosis provided by professionals who are trained online, potentially making it possible to offer the intervention to more patients.

Predictive score for mortality in patients with COPD exacerbations attending hospital emergency departments

Background: Limited information is available about predictors of short-term outcomes in patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (eCOPD) attending an emergency department (ED). Such information could help stratify these patients and guide medical decision-making. The aim of this study was to develop a clinical prediction rule for short-term mortality during hospital admission or within a week after the index ED visit. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of patients with eCOPD attending the EDs of 16 participating hospitals. Recruitment started in June 2008 and ended in September 2010. Information on possible predictor variables was recorded during the time the patient was evaluated in the ED, at the time a decision was made to admit the patient to the hospital or discharge home, and during follow-up. Main short-term outcomes were death during hospital admission or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED, as well as at death within 1 month of the index ED visit. Multivariate logistic regression models were developed in a derivation sample and validated in a validation sample. The score was compared with other published prediction rules for patients with stable COPD. Results: In total, 2,487 patients were included in the study. Predictors of death during hospital admission, or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED were patient age, baseline dyspnea, previous need for long-term home oxygen therapy or non-invasive mechanical ventilation, altered mental status, and use of inspiratory accessory muscles or paradoxical breathing upon ED arrival (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85). Addition of arterial blood gas parameters (oxygen and carbon dioxide partial pressures (PO2 and PCO2)) and pH) did not improve the model. The same variables were predictors of death at 1 month (AUC = 0.85). Compared with other commonly used tools for predicting the severity of COPD in stable patients, our rule was significantly better. Conclusions: Five clinical predictors easily available in the ED, and also in the primary care setting, can be used to create a simple and easily obtained score that allows clinicians to stratify patients with eCOPD upon ED arrival and guide the medical decision-making process.