Long Term Dynamics in CO2 Allowance Prices and Carbon Capture Investments

In this paper we analyse the behaviour of the EU market for CO2 emission allowances; specifically, we focus on the contracts maturing in the Kyoto Protocol's second period of application (2008 to 2012). We calibrate the underlying parameters for the allowance price in the long run and we also calibrate those from the Spanish wholesale electricity market. This information is then used to assess the option to install a carbon capture and storage (CCS) unit in a coal-fired power plant. We use a two-dimensional binomial lattice where costs and profits are valued and the optimal investment time is determined. In other words, we study the trigger allowance prices above which it is optimal to install the capture unit immediately. We further analyse the impact of several variables on the critical prices, among them allowance price volatility and a hypothetical government subsidy. We conclude that, at current permit prices, from a financial point of view, immediate installation does not seem justified. This need not be the case, though, if carbon market parameters change dramatically and/or a specific policy to promote these units is adopted.

Long-lived oscillatory incoherent electron dynamics in molecules: trans-polyacetylene oligomers

We identify an intriguing feature of the electron-vibrational dynamics of molecular systems via a computational examination of trans-polyacetylene oligomers. Here, via the vibronic interactions, the decay of an electron in the conduction band resonantly excites an electron in the valence band, and vice versa, leading to oscillatory exchange of electronic population between two distinct electronic states that lives for up to tens of picoseconds. The oscillatory structure is reminiscent of beating patterns between quantum states and is strongly suggestive of the presence of long-lived molecular electronic coherence. Significantly, however, a detailed analysis of the electronic coherence properties shows that the oscillatory structure arises from a purely incoherent process. These results were obtained by propagating the coupled dynamics of electronic and vibrational degrees of freedom in a mixed quantum-classical study of the Su-Schrieffer-Heeger Hamiltonian for polyacetylene. The incoherent process is shown to occur between degenerate electronic states with distinct electronic configurations that are indirectly coupled via a third auxiliary state by vibronic interactions. A discussion of how to construct electronic superposition states in molecules that are truly robust to decoherence is also presented