Term Structure and the Estimated Monetary Policy Rule in the Eurozone

Published as an article in: Spanish Economic Review, 2008, vol. 10, issue 4, pages 251-277.

Terrorism and the World Economy

Published as an article in: European Economic Review, 2008, vol. 52, issue 1, pages 1-27.

Does the Term Spread play a role in the FED's reaction function? An Empirical Investigation

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of a Fed’s reaction function (FRF) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an alternative monthly indicator of general economic activity suggested by Stock and Watson (1999), and (iv) considers interest rate smoothing. The estimation results show the existence of three switching regimes, two characterized by low volatility and the remaining regime by high volatility. Moreover, the scale of the responses of the Federal funds rate to movements in the rate of inflation and the economic activity index depends on the regime. The estimation results also show robust empirical evidence that the importance of the term spread in the FRF has increased over the sample period and the FRF has been more stable during the term of office of Chairman Greenspan than in the pre-Greenspan period.

The role of the term spread in an augmented Taylor rule: An empirical investigation

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of an augmented version of the Taylor rule (ATR) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an alternative monthly indicator of general economic activity suggested by Stock and Watson (1999), and (iv) considers interest rate smoothing. The estimation results show the existence of switching regimes, one characterized by low volatility and the other by high volatility. Moreover, the scale of the responses of the Federal funds rate to movements in the term spread, inflation and the economic activity index depend on the regime. The estimation results also show robust empirical evidence that the ATR has been more stable during the term of office of Chairman Greenspan than in the pre-Greenspan period. However, a closer look at the Greenspan period shows the existence of two alternative regimes and that the response of the Fed funds rate to inflation has not been significant during this period once the term spread is considered.

Innovación y crecimiento económico: Factores que estimulan la innovación

[ES] El objetivo de este artículo es analizar el papel que desempeñan las innovaciones en la actividad económica. En este sentido, se muestra la relación que existe entre innovaciones y crecimiento económico, como objetivo esencial actual de la política económica para reducir el desempleo y aumentar el bienestar social.

Análisis del comercio minorista vasco, y estrategias para impulsar el comercio urbano

Este documento recoge un análisis de la situación del sector del comercio minorista en el País Vasco y su evolución en los últimos años, en los que la crisis ha marcado significativamente la actividad económica. En él se abordan también las tendencias previsibles a corto plazo y los cambios que estas pueden suponer. Todo ello con el objetivo de proponer ideas que ayuden al comercio minorista a impulsar su dinamismo, considerando que el contexto competitivo es nuevo con un protagonismo evidente del mundo digital. He tratado de recoger propuestas lo más innovadoras posibles, sin olvidar que se trata de un reto complicado ya que un gran número de especialistas han trabajado a fondo en ese sentido desde hace tiempo. Sin embargo, entiendo que contar con nuevas ideas es siempre positivo y a ello se dirige mi contribución.

Análisis del comercio minorista vasco, y estrategias para impulsar el comercio urbano

Este documento recoge un análisis de la situación del sector del comercio minorista en el País Vasco y su evolución en los últimos años, en los que la crisis ha marcado significativamente la actividad económica. En él se abordan también las tendencias previsibles a corto plazo y los cambios que estas pueden suponer. Todo ello con el objetivo de proponer ideas que ayuden al comercio minorista a impulsar su dinamismo, considerando que el contexto competitivo es nuevo con un protagonismo evidente del mundo digital. He tratado de recoger propuestas lo más innovadoras posibles, sin olvidar que se trata de un reto complicado ya que un gran número de especialistas han trabajado a fondo en ese sentido desde hace tiempo. Sin embargo, entiendo que contar con nuevas ideas es siempre positivo y a ello se dirige mi contribución.

Balance de la política fiscal desarrollada en España en época de crisis. ¿Por qué elegir el camino contractivo?

The use of a contractive fiscal policy in times of crisis and austerity can lead to so many different opinion streams which can be, at the same time, very opposite with each other. The high budget deficit in some economies has forced the eurozone to implement austerity policies, meaning that the debate is now more alive than ever. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of the implementation of a contractive policy during a crisis considering the case of Spain. The positive effects in financial markets were noticed due to the decrease of the risk premium and the payment of interests, and also thanks to the increase of trust towards Spain. This way, the reduction of the Spanish deficit was remarkable but in any case there is still a long path until reaching the limit of 3% of the GDP. Also, in the short run it is possible to see that the consolidation had contractive effects in the economic activity but, in the long run, the debate is among the defenders of the fact that austerity is followed by a growing period and the ones opposing to it due to the drowning effect produced by it.

Lessons from the northern hake long-term management plan: Could the economic assessment have accepted it?

An economic expert working group (STECF/SGBRE-07-05) was convened in 2007 for evaluating the potential economic consequences of a Long-Term Management Plan for the northern hake. Analyzing all the scenarios proposed by biological assessment, they found that keeping the F in the status quo level was the best policy in terms of net present values for both yield and profits. This result is counter intuitive because it may indicate that effort costs do no affect the economic reference points. However, it is well accepted that the inclusion of costs affects negatively the economic reference points. In this paper, applying a dynamic agestructured model to the northern hake, we show that the optimal fishing mortality that maximizes the net present value of profits is lower than Fmax.

Economic Efficiency, Environmental Effectiveness and Political Feasibility of Energy Efficiency Rebates: The Case of the Spanish Energy Efficiency 'Renove' Plan

29 p.

Reflexiones sobre la puesta en valor del Monasterio de San Prudencio de Monte Laturce

[ES] Los datos de este registro provienen de la una actividad académica que también aparece descrita en el repositorio y desde donde se puede acceder a otros trabajos relacionados con el Monasterio: