Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Cost effectiveness of a combination of instruments for global warming: a quantitative approach for Spain

Climate change is an important environmental problem and one whose economic implications are many and varied. This paper starts with the presumption that mitigation of greenhouse gases is a necessary policy that has to be designed in a cost effective way. It is well known that market instruments are the best option for cost effectiveness. But the discussion regarding which of the various market instruments should be used, how they may interact and what combinations of policies should be implemented is still open and very lively. In this paper we propose a combination of instruments: the marketable emission permits already in place in Europe for major economic sectors and a CO(2) tax for economic sectors not included in the emissions permit scheme. The study uses an applied general equilibrium model for the Spanish economy to compute the results obtained with the new mix of instruments proposed. As the combination of the market for emission permits and the CO(2) tax admits different possibilities that depend on how the mitigation is distributed among the economic sectors, we concentrate on four possibilities: cost-effective, equalitarian, proportional to emissions, and proportional to output distributions. Other alternatives to the CO(2) tax are also analysed (tax on energy, on oil and on electricity). Our findings suggest that careful, well designed policies are needed as any deviation imposes significant additional costs that increase more than proportionally to the level of emissions reduction targeted by the EU.

Market Instruments and CO2 Mitigation: A General Equilibrium Analysis for Spain

25 p.

Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controled clinical trial of sublingual immunotherapy in natural rubber latex allergic patients

Trial registration number: CTRN12611000543987

Radiotherapy plus nimotuzumab or placebo in the treatment of high grade glioma patients: results from a randomized, double blind trial

Background The prognosis of patients bearing high grade glioma remains dismal. Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) is well validated as a primary contributor of glioma initiation and progression. Nimotuzumab is a humanized monoclonal antibody that recognizes the EGFR extracellular domain and reaches Central Nervous System tumors, in nonclinical and clinical setting. While it has similar activity when compared to other anti-EGFR antibodies, it does not induce skin toxicity or hypomagnesemia. Methods A randomized, double blind, multicentric clinical trial was conducted in high grade glioma patients (41 anaplastic astrocytoma and 29 glioblastoma multiforme) that received radiotherapy plus nimotuzumab or placebo. Treatment and placebo groups were well-balanced for the most important prognostic variables. Patients received 6 weekly doses of 200 mg nimotuzumab or placebo together with irradiation as induction therapy. Maintenance treatment was given for 1 year with subsequent doses administered every 3 weeks. The objectives of this study were to assess the comparative overall survival, progression free survival, response rate, immunogenicity and safety. Results The median cumulative dose was 3200 mg of nimotuzumab given over a median number of 16 doses. The combination of nimotuzumab and RT was well-tolerated. The most prevalent related adverse reactions included nausea, fever, tremors, anorexia and hepatic test alteration. No anti-idiotypic response was detected, confirming the antibody low immunogenicity. The mean and median survival time for subjects treated with nimotuzumab was 31.06 and 17.76 vs. 21.07 and 12.63 months for the control group. Conclusions In this randomized trial, nimotuzumab showed an excellent safety profile and significant survival benefit in combination with irradiation.

Pumped double quantum dot with spin-orbit coupling

We study driven by an external electric field quantum orbital and spin dynamics of electron in a one-dimensional double quantum dot with spin-orbit coupling. Two types of external perturbation are considered: a periodic field at the Zeeman frequency and a single half-period pulse. Spin-orbit coupling leads to a nontrivial evolution in the spin and orbital channels and to a strongly spin-dependent probability density distribution. Both the interdot tunneling and the driven motion contribute into the spin evolution. These results can be important for the design of the spin manipulation schemes in semiconductor nanostructures.

Resale in Auctions with Financial Constraints

This paper analyzes auctions where bidders face nancial constraints that may force them to resell part of the property of the good (or subcontract part of a project) at a resale market. First we show that the ine¢ cient speculative equilibria of second- price auctions (Garratt and Tröger, 2006) generalizes to situations with partial resale where only the high value bidder is nancially constrained. However, when all players face nancial constraints the ine¢ cient speculative equilibria disappear. Therefore, for auctioning big facilities or contracts where all bidders are nancially constrained and there is a resale market, the second price auction remains a simple and appropriate mechanism to achieve an e¢ cient allocation.

Alkene selenenylation: A comprehensive analysis of relative reactivities, stereochemistry and asymmetric induction, and their comparisons with sulfenylation

A broad perspective of various factors influencing alkene selenenylation has been developed by concurrent detailed analysis of key experimental and theoretical data, such as asymmetric induction, stereochemistry, relative reactivities, and comparison with that of alkene sulfenylation. Alkyl group branching a to the double bond was shown to have the greatest effect on alkene reactivity and the stereochemical outcome of corresponding addition reactions. This is in sharp contrast with other additions to alkenes, which depend more on the degree of substitution on C=C or upon substituent electronic effects. Electronic and steric effects influencing asymmetric induction, stereochemistry, regiochemistry, and relative reactivities in the addition of PhSeOTf to alkenes are compared and contrasted with those of PhSCl.

Alternative trajectories for decarbonizing urban transportation

4 p.

Decarbonising urban transportation

18 p.

Modeling Innovative Power Take-Off Based on Double-Acting Hydraulic Cylinders Array for Wave Energy Conversion

One of the key systems of a Wave Energy Converter for extraction of wave energy is the Power Take-Off (PTO) device. This device transforms the mechanical energy of a moving body into electrical energy. This paper describes the model of an innovative PTO based on independently activated double-acting hydraulic cylinders array. The model has been developed using a simulation tool, based on a port-based approach to model hydraulics systems. The components and subsystems used in the model have been parameterized as real components and their values experimentally obtained from an existing prototype. In fact, the model takes into account most of the hydraulic losses of each component. The simulations show the flexibility to apply different restraining torques to the input movement depending on the geometrical configuration and the hydraulic cylinders on duty, easily modified by a control law. The combination of these two actions allows suitable flexibility to adapt the device to different sea states whilst optimizing the energy extraction. The model has been validated using a real test bench showing good correlations between simulation and experimental tests.

Environmental taxes and the Double dividend hypothesis

In this End of Degree Dissertation I built a basic economic model, where two perfectly competitive markets interact, as a tool to understand, illustrate and evaluate environmentalfiscal reforms that have already been implemented or have been announced in many developed countries. Thus, in this dissertation I try to explain as simply as possible the theorical aspects of the “double dividend” hyphotesis and provide a numerical example with illustrative purpose.

Influence of Extracellular Matrix Components on the Expression of Integrins and Regeneration of Adult Retinal Ganglion Cells

Purpose Retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) are exposed to injury in a variety of optic nerve diseases including glaucoma. However, not all cells respond in the same way to damage and the capacity of individual RGCs to survive or regenerate is variable. In order to elucidate factors that may be important for RGC survival and regeneration we have focussed on the extracellular matrix (ECM) and RGC integrin expression. Our specific questions were: (1) Do adult RGCs express particular sets of integrins in vitro and in vivo? (2) Can the nature of the ECM influence the expression of different integrins? (3) Can the nature of the ECM affect the survival of the cells and the length or branching complexity of their neurites? Methods Primary RGC cultures from adult rat retina were placed on glass coverslips treated with different substrates: Poly-L-Lysine (PL), or PL plus laminin (L), collagen I (CI), collagen IV (CIV) or fibronectin (F). After 10 days in culture, we performed double immunostaining with an antibody against beta III-Tubulin to identify the RGCs, and antibodies against the integrin subunits: alpha V, alpha 1, alpha 3, alpha 5, beta 1 or beta 3. The number of adhering and surviving cells, the number and length of the neurites and the expression of the integrin subunits on the different substrates were analysed. Results PL and L were associated with the greatest survival of RGCs while CI provided the least favourable conditions. The type of substrate affected the number and length of neurites. L stimulated the longest growth. We found at least three different types of RGCs in terms of their capacity to regenerate and extend neurites. The different combinations of integrins expressed by the cells growing on different substrata suggest that RGCs expressed predominantly alpha 1 beta 1 or alpha 3 beta 1 on L, alpha 1 beta 1 on CI and CIV, and alpha 5 beta 3 on F. The activity of the integrins was demonstrated by the phosphorylation of focal adhesion kinase (FAK). Conclusions Adult rat RGCs can survive and grow in the presence of different ECM tested. Further studies should be done to elucidate the different molecular characteristics of the RGCs subtypes in order to understand the possible different sensitivity of different RGCs to damage in diseases like glaucoma in which not all RGCs die at the same time.

Double proximity effect in lateral S-NF-S junctions

We investigate planar Josephson junctions where the intermediate spacer between the two superconductors is an hybrid structure made by a normal metal and a ferromagnet. The different behaviors of the S-N-S junctions with thicknesses of 50 nm in both Cu and Nb layers, and S-N/F-S junctions with 10 nm of Co, 50 nm of Cu and 50 nm of Nb are studied. In this way, we analyze the influence of the ferromagnetic exchange interaction on the proximity effect. A dramatic supression of the josephson critical current of the Nb-(Cu/Co)-Nb junctions is observed. We believe that the reason for this is due to the length scale of the superconducting correlations of the electrons and holes of the weak link is larger than the thickness of Cu/Co bilayer.

Double layers in gravity theories

Gravitational double layers, unlike their classical electromagnetic counterparts, are thought to be forbidden in gravity theories. It has been recently shown, however, that they are feasible in, for instance, gravity theories with a Lagrangian quadratic in the curvature. This is surprising with many potential consequences and the possibility of new physical behaviours. While a clear interpretation seems elusive, several lines of research are open. I present the field equations for double layers, the new physical quantities arising, and several explicit examples