On the Informational Role of Term Structure in the U.S. Monetary Policy Rule

This paper uses a structural approach based on the indirect inference principle to estimate a standard version of the new Keynesian monetary (NKM) model augmented with term structure using both revised and real-time data. The estimation results show that the term spread and policy inertia are both important determinants of the U.S. estimated monetary policy rule whereas the persistence of shocks plays a small but significant role when revised and real-time data of output and inflation are both considered. More importantly, the relative importance of term spread and persistent shocks in the policy rule and the shock transmission mechanism drastically change when it is taken into account that real-time data are not well behaved.

Term Structure and the Estimated Monetary Policy Rule in the Eurozone

Published as an article in: Spanish Economic Review, 2008, vol. 10, issue 4, pages 251-277.

The Effect of Data Revisions on the Basic New Keynesian Model

This paper proposes an extended version of the basic New Keynesian monetary (NKM) model which contemplates revision processes of output and inflation data in order to assess the importance of data revisions on the estimated monetary policy rule parameters and the transmission of policy shocks. Our empirical evidence based on a structural econometric approach suggests that although the initial announcements of output and inflation are not rational forecasts of revised output and inflation data, ignoring the presence of non well-behaved revision processes may not be a serious drawback in the analysis of monetary policy in this framework. However, the transmission of inflation-push shocks is largely affected by considering data revisions. The latter being especially true when the nominal stickiness parameter is estimated taking into account data revision processes.

New methods for generating populations in Markov network based EDAs: Decimation strategies and model-based template recombination

Methods for generating a new population are a fundamental component of estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs). They serve to transfer the information contained in the probabilistic model to the new generated population. In EDAs based on Markov networks, methods for generating new populations usually discard information contained in the model to gain in efficiency. Other methods like Gibbs sampling use information about all interactions in the model but are computationally very costly. In this paper we propose new methods for generating new solutions in EDAs based on Markov networks. We introduce approaches based on inference methods for computing the most probable configurations and model-based template recombination. We show that the application of different variants of inference methods can increase the EDAs’ convergence rate and reduce the number of function evaluations needed to find the optimum of binary and non-binary discrete functions.

Invariant-free deduction systems for temporal logic

In this thesis we propose a new approach to deduction methods for temporal logic. Our proposal is based on an inductive definition of eventualities that is different from the usual one. On the basis of this non-customary inductive definition for eventualities, we first provide dual systems of tableaux and sequents for Propositional Linear-time Temporal Logic (PLTL). Then, we adapt the deductive approach introduced by means of these dual tableau and sequent systems to the resolution framework and we present a clausal temporal resolution method for PLTL. Finally, we make use of this new clausal temporal resolution method for establishing logical foundations for declarative temporal logic programming languages. The key element in the deduction systems for temporal logic is to deal with eventualities and hidden invariants that may prevent the fulfillment of eventualities. Different ways of addressing this issue can be found in the works on deduction systems for temporal logic. Traditional tableau systems for temporal logic generate an auxiliary graph in a first pass.Then, in a second pass, unsatisfiable nodes are pruned. In particular, the second pass must check whether the eventualities are fulfilled. The one-pass tableau calculus introduced by S. Schwendimann requires an additional handling of information in order to detect cyclic branches that contain unfulfilled eventualities. Regarding traditional sequent calculi for temporal logic, the issue of eventualities and hidden invariants is tackled by making use of a kind of inference rules (mainly, invariant-based rules or infinitary rules) that complicates their automation. A remarkable consequence of using either a two-pass approach based on auxiliary graphs or aone-pass approach that requires an additional handling of information in the tableau framework, and either invariant-based rules or infinitary rules in the sequent framework, is that temporal logic fails to carry out the classical correspondence between tableaux and sequents. In this thesis, we first provide a one-pass tableau method TTM that instead of a graph obtains a cyclic tree to decide whether a set of PLTL-formulas is satisfiable. In TTM tableaux are classical-like. For unsatisfiable sets of formulas, TTM produces tableaux whose leaves contain a formula and its negation. In the case of satisfiable sets of formulas, TTM builds tableaux where each fully expanded open branch characterizes a collection of models for the set of formulas in the root. The tableau method TTM is complete and yields a decision procedure for PLTL. This tableau method is directly associated to a one-sided sequent calculus called TTC. Since TTM is free from all the structural rules that hinder the mechanization of deduction, e.g. weakening and contraction, then the resulting sequent calculus TTC is also free from this kind of structural rules. In particular, TTC is free of any kind of cut, including invariant-based cut. From the deduction system TTC, we obtain a two-sided sequent calculus GTC that preserves all these good freeness properties and is finitary, sound and complete for PLTL. Therefore, we show that the classical correspondence between tableaux and sequent calculi can be extended to temporal logic. The most fruitful approach in the literature on resolution methods for temporal logic, which was started with the seminal paper of M. Fisher, deals with PLTL and requires to generate invariants for performing resolution on eventualities. In this thesis, we present a new approach to resolution for PLTL. The main novelty of our approach is that we do not generate invariants for performing resolution on eventualities. Our method is based on the dual methods of tableaux and sequents for PLTL mentioned above. Our resolution method involves translation into a clausal normal form that is a direct extension of classical CNF. We first show that any PLTL-formula can be transformed into this clausal normal form. Then, we present our temporal resolution method, called TRS-resolution, that extends classical propositional resolution. Finally, we prove that TRS-resolution is sound and complete. In fact, it finishes for any input formula deciding its satisfiability, hence it gives rise to a new decision procedure for PLTL. In the field of temporal logic programming, the declarative proposals that provide a completeness result do not allow eventualities, whereas the proposals that follow the imperative future approach either restrict the use of eventualities or deal with them by calculating an upper bound based on the small model property for PLTL. In the latter, when the length of a derivation reaches the upper bound, the derivation is given up and backtracking is used to try another possible derivation. In this thesis we present a declarative propositional temporal logic programming language, called TeDiLog, that is a combination of the temporal and disjunctive paradigms in Logic Programming. We establish the logical foundations of our proposal by formally defining operational and logical semantics for TeDiLog and by proving their equivalence. Since TeDiLog is, syntactically, a sublanguage of PLTL, the logical semantics of TeDiLog is supported by PLTL logical consequence. The operational semantics of TeDiLog is based on TRS-resolution. TeDiLog allows both eventualities and always-formulas to occur in clause heads and also in clause bodies. To the best of our knowledge, TeDiLog is the first declarative temporal logic programming language that achieves this high degree of expressiveness. Since the tableau method presented in this thesis is able to detect that the fulfillment of an eventuality is prevented by a hidden invariant without checking for it by means of an extra process, since our finitary sequent calculi do not include invariant-based rules and since our resolution method dispenses with invariant generation, we say that our deduction methods are invariant-free.

Coalitional games with veto players: Myopic and farsighted behavior

This paper studies an allocation procedure for coalitional games with veto players. The procedure is similar to the one presented by Dagan et al. (1997) for bankruptcy problems. According to it, a player, the proposer, makes a proposal that the remaining players must accept or reject, and con ict is solved bilaterally between the rejector and the proposer. We allow the proposer to make sequential proposals over several periods. If responders are myopic maximizers (i.e. consider each period in isolation), the only equilibrium outcome is the serial rule of Arin and Feltkamp (2012) regardless of the order of moves. If all players are farsighted, the serial rule still arises as the unique subgame perfect equilibrium outcome if the order of moves is such that stronger players respond to the proposal after weaker ones.

Subjektu egozgarri eta arriskutsuen tratamendu penala

[ES]El presente Trabajo de Fin de Grado analiza el tratamiento penal de los sujetos imputables peligrosos que mantienen la peligrosidad criminal tras el cumplimiento de la pena de prisión. De esta manera, se investiga la regulación jurídica española dirigida a este colectivo, poniendo de manifiesto que hasta la entrada en vigor de la Ley Orgánica 5/2010 de reforma del Código Penal no había prevista ninguna medida de seguridad enfocada a este grupo específico y concluyendo que la medida de “libertad vigilada” introducida en dicha reforma no es del todo efectiva para alcanzar la reinserción del reo. Por todo ello, se argumenta que la política criminal llevada a cabo en los últimos años ha llevado la seguridad a un extremo tal que no se han podido garantizar del todo los derechos individuales del colectivo anteriormente mencionado. Asimismo, se investiga la “custodia de seguridad” vigente en la regulación alemana, haciendo notoria la importancia de la seguridad e inocuización. En síntesis, se estudia si el delincuente ha quedado subordinado al orden jurídico y a la seguridad, esclareciendo si han sido respetados los principios y garantías inherentes a un Estado Social y Democrático de Derecho.