An Estimated New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment as Excess Supply of Labor

Wage stickiness is incorporated to a New-Keynesian model with variable capital to drive endogenous unemployment uctuations de ned as the log di¤erence between aggregate labor supply and aggregate labor demand. We estimated such model using Bayesian econometric techniques and quarterly U.S. data. The second-moment statistics of the unemployment rate in the model give a good t to those observed in U.S. data. Our results also show that wage-push shocks, demand shifts and monetary policy shocks are the three major determinants of unemployment fl uctuations. Compared to an estimated New-Keynesian model without unemployment (Smets and Wouters, 2007): wage stickiness is higher, labor supply elasticity is lower, the slope of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve is flatter, and the importance of technology innovations on output variability increases.

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south-north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918-19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.

Impact of fertlizers and pesticides on soil and water quality

[ES]En la presente tesis se ha estudiado el impacto de diferentes fertilizantes y pesticidas utilizados en la Zona Vulnerable de Vitoria-Gasteiz en la calidad del suelo y las aguas de dicha zona. Se ha podido constatar que hoy en día siguen lixiviándose cantidades significativas de nitratos y pesticidas (e.g., etofumesato y difenoconazol) a las aguas de la Zona Vulnerable, durante el cultivo de remolacha azucarera (Beta vulgaris L.), muy característico de la zona de estudio. Se comprobó que el alto contenido en nitratos de las aguas subterráneas en la Zona Vulnerable es mitigado, al menos en parte, por la acción de la actividad microbiana desnitrificante que alberga la zona riparia del humedal de Salburua. Dicho proceso, sin embargo, supone la emisión a la atmósfera de importantes cantidades de gases de efecto invernadero (CO2 y N2O), y puede verse afectado negativamente por la presencia de pesticidas (e.g., deltametrina) en el medio.Por otra parte, hemos observado que diversos pesticidas (deltametrina, etofumesato, difenoconazol) aplicados en concentraciones similares a las dosis de aplicación en campo inducen cambios, de carácter limitado y transitorio, en las comunidades microbianas edáficas, siendo más significativos en el caso del fungicida difenoconazol. El efecto de los pesticidas fue más acusado a medida que aumentaba su concentración en el medio. Finalmente, encontramos que la aplicación de abonos orgánicos (avicompost), en lugar de los fertilizantes sintéticos tradicionales (NPK), además de mejorar la degradación de los pesticidas y disminuir el impacto de éstos sobre la calidad del suelo, podría ayudar a reducir las pérdidas de nitratos por lixiviación.

New Oncogenic Drivers in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Role of the RNA Binding Protein Hu antigen R

156 p. : graf.

Linking Reduced Deforestation and a Global Carbon Market: Impacts on Costs, Financial Flows, and Technological Innovation

25 p.

Cheese consumption and prevalence of overweight and obesity in a Basque adult population: a crosssectional study

[EN] Studies have reported a negative association between dairy product consumption and weight status. However, not as much research has focused on cheese; therefore, the aim of this study was to study the association between cheese intake and overweight and obesity in a representative Basque adult population. A food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) was obtained from a random sample of 1081 adults (530 males and 551 females, 17–96 years old). Cheese consumption data were expressed as g/1000 kcal/day. The prevalence of overweight/obesity was higher in men (55.1%) than in women (35.4%) (p50.001). Participants with low or moderate intake of fresh and processed cheese demonstrated a higher prevalence of excess weight, compared with those with higher consumption. The confounding variables selected in multivariate analysis were occupational status and age in both genders; and place of residence in men. In conclusion, negative associations were found between consumption of some types of cheese and overweight and obesity in this population.

Proyecto de un parque eólico para la alimentación de las bombas de la central hidráulica de Belesar (Lugo).

[ES]El proyecto consiste en el estudio de las necesidades energéticas de las bombas de una central hidráulica y la construcción de un parque eólico para satisfacer dichas necesidades. Para ello será necesario llevar a cabo un estudio del área y así encontrar el lugar más adecuado para ubicar los aerogeneradores, teniendo en cuenta la frecuencia, velocidad y dirección de los vientos predominantes del lugar. Después habrá que estudiar el mercado y elegir el aerogenerador adecuado para las condiciones del lugar y del viento, atendiendo también a otras cuestiones de relevancia. Se estudiará, además, la posibilidad de inyectar un posible exceso de electricidad a la red general. Una vez hecho esto, habrá que calcular el coste del proyecto.

Analysis of Body Composition and Food Habits of Spanish Celiac Women

The purpose of the present work was both to analyze composition of Spanish celiac women and to study the food habits and gluten-free diet of these celiac patients, in order to determine whether they achieve a balanced and healthy diet as well as to highlight nutritional qualitative and/or quantitative differences. 54 adult celiac women (34 +/- 13 years) took part in the six-month study. Height, weight and body composition were measured. An analysis of energy consumption and of the macronutrient distribution of their diet was carried out. Their fulfillment of micronutrient intake recommendations was verified. Participants showed a Body Mass Index of 21.6 +/- 2.4 kg/m(2). Energy Intake was slightly lower than the Dietary Reference Intakes. Excessive protein apart from over-consumption of fat was observed. More than three quarters of participants consumed meat in excess. Carbohydrate consumption along with that of fiber was below recommended levels. Vitamin D, iron, and iodine had a low percentage of recommendation compliance. In general, participants followed the recommendations of dairy products and fruit intake whereas vegetable consumption was not enough for the vast majority. We conclude that although the diet of celiac women does not differ much from the diet of general population, some considerations, such as reducing fat and protein consumption and increasing fiber intake, must be taken into account.

Aplicación de la Programación lineal a la asignación de personal en un centro de llamadas

[ES] La necesidad de gestionar y repartir eficazmente los recursos escasos entre las diferentes operaciones de las empresas, hacen que éstas recurran a aplicar técnicas de la Investigación de Operaciones. Éste es el caso de los centros de llamadas, un sector emergente y dinámico que se encuentra en constante desarrollo. En este sector, la administración del trabajo requiere de técnicas predictivas para determinar el número de trabajadores adecuado y así evitar en la medida de lo posible tanto el exceso como la escasez del mismo. Este trabajo se centrará en el estudio del centro de llamadas de emergencias 112 de Andalucía. Partiendo de los datos estadísticos del número medio de llamadas que se realiza en cada franja horaria, facilitados por la Junta de esta Comunidad Autónoma, formularemos y modelizaremos el problema aplicando la Programación Lineal. Posteriormente, lo resolveremos con dos programas de software, con la finalidad de obtener una distribución óptima de agentes que minimice el coste salarial, ya que supone un 65% del gasto de explotación total. Finalmente, mediante la teoría de colas, observaremos los tiempos de espera en cola y calcularemos el número objetivo de agentes que permita no sólo minimizar el coste salarial sino mejorar la calidad de servicio teniendo unos tiempos de espera razonables.

Computational study of the vortex path variation with the VG height

An extensive range of conventional, vane-type, passive vortex generators (VGs) are in use for successful applications of flow separation control. In most cases, the VG height is designed with the same thickness as the local boundary layer at the VG position. However, in some applications, these conventional VGs may produce excess residual drag. The so-called low-profile VGs can reduce the parasitic drag associated to this kind of passive control devices. As suggested by many authors, low-profile VGs can provide enough momentum transfer over a region several times their own height for effective flow-separation control with much lower drag. The main objective of this work is to study the variation of the path and the development of the primary vortex generated by a rectangular VG mounted on a flat plate with five different device heights h = delta, h(1) = 0.8 delta, h(2) = 0.6 delta, h(3) = 0.4 delta and h(4) = 0.2 delta, where delta is the local boundary layer thickness. For this purpose, computational simulations have been carried out at Reynolds number Re = 1350 based on the height of the conventional VG h = 0.25m with the angle of attack of the vane to the oncoming flow beta = 18.5 degrees. The results show that the VG scaling significantly affects the vortex trajectory and the peak vorticity generated by the primary vortex.

Sobre el carácter y el objeto de la crítica moral en la sátira 2.5 de Horacio

El presente artículo es una ampliación y reelaboración de la comunicación presentada en el II Encuentro Interdisciplinar sobre Retórica, Texto y Comunicación (Cádiz, 7-10 de diciembre de 1994) titulada: "El valor del diálogo en la sátira de Horacio: el ejemplo de 2.5".