Efficient learning of decomposable models with a bounded clique size

The learning of probability distributions from data is a ubiquitous problem in the fields of Statistics and Artificial Intelligence. During the last decades several learning algorithms have been proposed to learn probability distributions based on decomposable models due to their advantageous theoretical properties. Some of these algorithms can be used to search for a maximum likelihood decomposable model with a given maximum clique size, k, which controls the complexity of the model. Unfortunately, the problem of learning a maximum likelihood decomposable model given a maximum clique size is NP-hard for k > 2. In this work, we propose a family of algorithms which approximates this problem with a computational complexity of O(k · n^2 log n) in the worst case, where n is the number of implied random variables. The structures of the decomposable models that solve the maximum likelihood problem are called maximal k-order decomposable graphs. Our proposals, called fractal trees, construct a sequence of maximal i-order decomposable graphs, for i = 2, ..., k, in k − 1 steps. At each step, the algorithms follow a divide-and-conquer strategy based on the particular features of this type of structures. Additionally, we propose a prune-and-graft procedure which transforms a maximal k-order decomposable graph into another one, increasing its likelihood. We have implemented two particular fractal tree algorithms called parallel fractal tree and sequential fractal tree. These algorithms can be considered a natural extension of Chow and Liu’s algorithm, from k = 2 to arbitrary values of k. Both algorithms have been compared against other efficient approaches in artificial and real domains, and they have shown a competitive behavior to deal with the maximum likelihood problem. Due to their low computational complexity they are especially recommended to deal with high dimensional domains.

Aplicación del Aprendizaje Basado en Problemas para el estudio de Funciones Reales de Variables Reales

Duración (en horas): De 21 a 30 horas. Nivel educativo: Grado

¿Reflejan los índices de riesgo país las variables relevantes en el desencadenamiento de las crisis externas? Un análisis sobre el periodo 1994-2001

[ES] El objetivo de este trabajo es establecer en qué medida los índices de riesgo país más utilizados por la comunidad económica y financiera internacional, en concreto, el índice de Euromoney y el ICRG, recogen las variables relevantes en el desencadenamiento de las crisis monetarias y financieras externas, como un aspecto básico en la evaluación de su capacidad para medir adecuadamente el riesgo de los diferentes países.

Ancient DNA from Hunter-Gatherer and Farmer Groups from Northern Spain Supports a Random Dispersion Model for the Neolithic Expansion into Europe

10 p.

Behavioral profile of adults with Prader-Willi syndrome : correlations with individual and environmental variables

Background: Maladaptive behavior has been reported as a phenotypical feature in Prader–Willi syndrome (PWS). It severely limits social adaptation and the quality of life of children and adults with the syndrome. Different factors have been linked with the intensity and form of these behavioral disturbances but there is no consensus about the cause. Consequently, there is still controversy regarding management strategies and there is a need for new data. Methods: The behavior of 100 adults with PWS attending a dedicated center was assessed using the Developmental Behavior Checklist for Adults (DBC-A) and the PWS-specific Hyperphagia Questionnaire. The DBC-A was completed separately by trained caregivers at the center and relatives or caregivers in a natural setting. Genotype, gender, age, degree of obesity and cognitive impairment were analyzed as variables with a hypothetical influence on behavioral features. Results: Patients showed a relatively high rate of behavioral disturbances other than hyperphagia. Disruptive and social relating were the highest scoring DBC-A subscales whereas anxiety/antisocial and self-absorbed were the lowest. When hospital caregiver and natural caregiver scores were compared, scores for the latter were higher for all subscales except for disruptive and anxiety/antisocial. These effects of institutional management were underlined. In the DBC-A, 22 items have descriptive indications of PWS behavior and were used for further comparisons and correlation analysis. In contrast to previous reports, rates of disturbed behavior were lower in patients with a deletion genotype. However, the behavioral profile was similar for both genotypes. No differences were found in any measurement when comparing type I and type II deletions. The other analyzed variables showed little relevance. Conclusions: Significant rates of behavioral disorders were highlighted and their typology described in a large cohort of adults with PWS. The deletion genotype was related to a lower severity of symptoms. Some major behavioral problems, such as hyperphagia, may be well controlled if living circumstances are adapted to the specific requirements of individuals with PWS.

Use of generalised additive models to categorise continuous variables in clinical prediction

13 P.

Downscaling of surface moisture flux and precipitation in the Ebro Valley (Spain) using analogues and analogues followed by random forests and multiple linear regression

In this paper, reanalysis fields from the ECMWF have been statistically downscaled to predict from large-scale atmospheric fields, surface moisture flux and daily precipitation at two observatories (Zaragoza and Tortosa, Ebro Valley, Spain) during the 1961-2001 period. Three types of downscaling models have been built: (i) analogues, (ii) analogues followed by random forests and (iii) analogues followed by multiple linear regression. The inputs consist of data (predictor fields) taken from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The predicted fields are precipitation and surface moisture flux as measured at the two observatories. With the aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, the ERA-40 fields have been decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions. Available daily data has been divided into two parts: a training period used to find a group of about 300 analogues to build the downscaling model (1961-1996) and a test period (19972001), where models' performance has been assessed using independent data. In the case of surface moisture flux, the models based on analogues followed by random forests do not clearly outperform those built on analogues plus multiple linear regression, while simple averages calculated from the nearest analogues found in the training period, yielded only slightly worse results. In the case of precipitation, the three types of model performed equally. These results suggest that most of the models' downscaling capabilities can be attributed to the analogues-calculation stage.

Fiabilidad de diferentes pruebas que se utilizan para evaluar el riesgo de lesión del miembro inferior en mujeres deportistas

233 p. : il. + anexo (247 p.)

Cheese consumption and prevalence of overweight and obesity in a Basque adult population: a crosssectional study

[EN] Studies have reported a negative association between dairy product consumption and weight status. However, not as much research has focused on cheese; therefore, the aim of this study was to study the association between cheese intake and overweight and obesity in a representative Basque adult population. A food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) was obtained from a random sample of 1081 adults (530 males and 551 females, 17–96 years old). Cheese consumption data were expressed as g/1000 kcal/day. The prevalence of overweight/obesity was higher in men (55.1%) than in women (35.4%) (p50.001). Participants with low or moderate intake of fresh and processed cheese demonstrated a higher prevalence of excess weight, compared with those with higher consumption. The confounding variables selected in multivariate analysis were occupational status and age in both genders; and place of residence in men. In conclusion, negative associations were found between consumption of some types of cheese and overweight and obesity in this population.

Polímeros de Coordinación con Centros Metálicos en Entornos de Coordinación Variables: Posibles Aplicaciones.

Presentación de power point. Comunicación oral presentada en el 1er Simposium sobre Propiedades y Aplicaciones de MOFs y COFs, celebrado en Granada en abril de 2015

Valorization of scrap tires pyrolysis oil (STPO) through a 2-stage hydrotreating-hydrocracking strategy. Process variables and kinetic modeling

232 p.

Nonperturbative dynamical decoupling with random control

Parametric fluctuations or stochastic signals are introduced into the rectangular pulse sequence to investigate the feasibility of random dynamical decoupling. In a large parameter region, we find that the out-of-order control pulses work as well as the regular pulses for dynamical decoupling and dissipation suppression. Calculations and analysis are enabled by and based on a nonperturbative dynamical decoupling approach allowed by an exact quantum-state-diffusion equation. When the average frequency and duration of the pulse sequence take proper values, the random control sequence is robust, fault-tolerant, and insensitive to pulse strength deviations and interpulse temporal separation in the quasi-periodic sequence. This relaxes the operational requirements placed on quantum control devices to a great deal.

Novel Evidence hat Attributing Affectively Salient Signal to Random Noise Is Associated with Psychosis

We wished to replicate evidence that an experimental paradigm of speech illusions is associated with psychotic experiences. Fifty-four patients with a first episode of psychosis (FEP) and 150 healthy subjects were examined in an experimental paradigm assessing the presence of speech illusion in neutral white noise. Socio-demographic, cognitive function and family history data were collected. The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) was administered in the patient group and the Structured Interview for Schizotypy-Revised (SIS-R), and the Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences (CAPE) in the control group. Patients had a much higher rate of speech illusions (33.3% versus 8.7%, ORadjusted: 5.1, 95% CI: 2.3-11.5), which was only partly explained by differences in IQ (ORadjusted: 3.4, 95% CI: 1.4-8.3). Differences were particularly marked for signals in random noise that were perceived as affectively salient (ORadjusted: 9.7, 95% CI: 1.8-53.9). Speech illusion tended to be associated with positive symptoms in patients (ORadjusted: 3.3, 95% CI: 0.9-11.6), particularly affectively salient illusions (ORadjusted: 8.3, 95% CI: 0.7-100.3). In controls, speech illusions were not associated with positive schizotypy (ORadjusted: 1.1, 95% CI: 0.3-3.4) or self-reported psychotic experiences (ORadjusted: 1.4, 95% CI: 0.4-4.6). Experimental paradigms indexing the tendency to detect affectively salient signals in noise may be used to identify liability to psychosis.

Hidrocraqueo de aromáticos ligeros a n-alcanos C2+. Variables de proceso y modelado cinético

323 p.

Contributions to Ensemble Classifiers with Image Analysis Applications

134 p.