A predictive model of the export behaviour of small and medium sized firms: an application to the case of Castilla-La Mancha

[EN] Based on an extensive theoretical review, the aim of this paper is to carry out a closer examination of the differences between exporters according to their commitment to the international market. Once the main disparities are identified by means of a non-parametric test, a logistic analysis based upon data collected from small and medium sized manufacturing firms is conducted in order to construct a classificatory model.

Validity of Resting Energy Expenditure Predictive Equations before and after an Energy-Restricted Diet Intervention in Obese Women

11 p.

Fine mapping and functional analysis of the multiple sclerosis risk gene CD6

CD6 has recently been identified and validated as risk gene for multiple sclerosis (MS), based on the association of a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs17824933, located in intron 1. CD6 is a cell surface scavenger receptor involved in T-cell activation and proliferation, as well as in thymocyte differentiation. In this study, we performed a haptag SNP screen of the CD6 gene locus using a total of thirteen tagging SNPs, of which three were non-synonymous SNPs, and replicated the recently reported GWAS SNP rs650258 in a Spanish-Basque collection of 814 controls and 823 cases. Validation of the six most strongly associated SNPs was performed in an independent collection of 2265 MS patients and 2600 healthy controls. We identified association of haplotypes composed of two non-synonymous SNPs [rs11230563 (R225W) and rs2074225 (A257V)] in the 2nd SRCR domain with susceptibility to MS (Pmax(T) permutation=161024). The effect of these haplotypes on CD6 surface expression and cytokine secretion was also tested. The analysis showed significantly different CD6 expression patterns in the distinct cell subsets, i.e. – CD4+ naı¨ve cells, P = 0.0001; CD8+ naı¨ve cells, P,0.0001; CD4+ and CD8+ central memory cells, P = 0.01 and 0.05, respectively; and natural killer T (NKT) cells, P = 0.02; with the protective haplotype (RA) showing higher expression of CD6. However, no significant changes were observed in natural killer (NK) cells, effector memory and terminally differentiated effector memory T cells. Our findings reveal that this new MS-associated CD6 risk haplotype significantly modifies expression of CD6 on CD4+ and CD8+ T cells.

Effective and Robust Generalized Predictive Speed Control of Induction Motor

14 p.

Towards a Comprehensive Approach to Quantifying and Mapping Ecosystem Services Flows

25 p.

BAMS: A Tool for Supervised Burned Area Mapping Using Landsat Data

A new supervised burned area mapping software named BAMS (Burned Area Mapping Software) is presented in this paper. The tool was built from standard ArcGIS (TM) libraries. It computes several of the spectral indexes most commonly used in burned area detection and implements a two-phase supervised strategy to map areas burned between two Landsat multitemporal images. The only input required from the user is the visual delimitation of a few burned areas, from which burned perimeters are extracted. After the discrimination of burned patches, the user can visually assess the results, and iteratively select additional sampling burned areas to improve the extent of the burned patches. The final result of the BAMS program is a polygon vector layer containing three categories: (a) burned perimeters, (b) unburned areas, and (c) non-observed areas. The latter refer to clouds or sensor observation errors. Outputs of the BAMS code meet the requirements of file formats and structure of standard validation protocols. This paper presents the tool's structure and technical basis. The program has been tested in six areas located in the United States, for various ecosystems and land covers, and then compared against the National Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) Burned Area Boundaries Dataset.

Unveiling the factors shaping the distribution of widely distributed alpine vertebrates, using multi-scale ecological niche modelling of the bat Plecotus macrobullaris

Several alpine vertebrates share a distribution pattern that extends across the South-western Palearctic but is limited to the main mountain massifs. Although they are usually regarded as cold-adapted species, the range of many alpine vertebrates also includes relatively warm areas, suggesting that factors beyond climatic conditions may be driving their distribution. In this work we first recognize the species belonging to the mentioned biogeographic group and, based on the environmental niche analysis of Plecotus macrobullaris, we identify and characterize the environmental factors constraining their ranges. Distribution overlap analysis of 504 European vertebrates was done using the Sorensen Similarity Index, and we identified four birds and one mammal that share the distribution with P. macrobullaris. We generated 135 environmental niche models including different variable combinations and regularization values for P. macrobullaris at two different scales and resolutions. After selecting the best models, we observed that topographic variables outperformed climatic predictors, and the abruptness of the landscape showed better predictive ability than elevation. The best explanatory climatic variable was mean summer temperature, which showed that P. macrobullaris is able to cope with mean temperature ranges spanning up to 16 degrees C. The models showed that the distribution of P. macrobullaris is mainly shaped by topographic factors that provide rock-abundant and open-space habitats rather than climatic determinants, and that the species is not a cold-adapted, but rather a cold-tolerant eurithermic organism. P. macrobullaris shares its distribution pattern as well as several ecological features with five other alpine vertebrates, suggesting that the conclusions obtained from this study might be extensible to them. We concluded that rock-dwelling and open-space foraging vertebrates with broad temperature tolerance are the best candidates to show wide alpine distribution in the Western Palearctic.

Epitope mapping of antibodies to alpha-synuclein in LRRK2 mutation carriers, idiopathic Parkinson disease patients, and healthy controls

Alpha-synuclein (Snca) plays a major role in Parkinson disease (PD). Circulating anti-Snca antibodies has been described in PD patients and healthy controls, but they have been poorly characterized. This study was designed to assess the prevalence of anti-Snca reactivity in human subjects carrying the LRRK2 mutation, idiopathic PD (iPD) patients, and healthy controls and to map the epitopes of the anti-Snca antibodies. Antibodies to Snca were detected by ELISA and immunoblotting using purified recombinant Snca in plasma from individuals carrying LRRK2 mutations (104), iPD patients (59), and healthy controls (83). Epitopes of antibodies were mapped using recombinant protein constructs comprising different regions of Snca. Clear positive anti-Snca reactivity showed no correlation with age, sex, years of evolution, or the disability scores for PD patients and anti-Snca reactivity was not prevalent in human patients with other neurological or autoimmune diseases. Thirteen of the positive individuals were carriers of LRRK2 mutations either non-manifesting (8 out 49 screened) or manifesting (5 positive out 55), three positive (out of 59) were iPD patients, and five positive (out of 83) were healthy controls. Epitope mapping showed that antibodies against the N-terminal (a.a. 1-60) or C-terminal (a.a. 109-140) regions of Snca predominate in LRRK2 mutation carriers and iPD patients, being N122 a critical amino acid for recognition by the anti-C-terminal directed antibodies. Anti-Snca circulating antibodies seem to cluster within families carrying the LRRK2 mutation indicating possible genetic or common environmental factors in the generation of anti-Snca antibodies. These results suggest that case-controls' studies are insufficient and further studies in family cohorts of patients and healthy controls should be undertaken, to progress in the understanding of the possible relationship of anti-Snca antibodies and PD patholog

Density-potential mapping in the standard and quantum electrodynamical time-dependent density functional theory

131 p.

Predictive score for mortality in patients with COPD exacerbations attending hospital emergency departments

Background: Limited information is available about predictors of short-term outcomes in patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (eCOPD) attending an emergency department (ED). Such information could help stratify these patients and guide medical decision-making. The aim of this study was to develop a clinical prediction rule for short-term mortality during hospital admission or within a week after the index ED visit. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of patients with eCOPD attending the EDs of 16 participating hospitals. Recruitment started in June 2008 and ended in September 2010. Information on possible predictor variables was recorded during the time the patient was evaluated in the ED, at the time a decision was made to admit the patient to the hospital or discharge home, and during follow-up. Main short-term outcomes were death during hospital admission or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED, as well as at death within 1 month of the index ED visit. Multivariate logistic regression models were developed in a derivation sample and validated in a validation sample. The score was compared with other published prediction rules for patients with stable COPD. Results: In total, 2,487 patients were included in the study. Predictors of death during hospital admission, or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED were patient age, baseline dyspnea, previous need for long-term home oxygen therapy or non-invasive mechanical ventilation, altered mental status, and use of inspiratory accessory muscles or paradoxical breathing upon ED arrival (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85). Addition of arterial blood gas parameters (oxygen and carbon dioxide partial pressures (PO2 and PCO2)) and pH) did not improve the model. The same variables were predictors of death at 1 month (AUC = 0.85). Compared with other commonly used tools for predicting the severity of COPD in stable patients, our rule was significantly better. Conclusions: Five clinical predictors easily available in the ED, and also in the primary care setting, can be used to create a simple and easily obtained score that allows clinicians to stratify patients with eCOPD upon ED arrival and guide the medical decision-making process.

Low Effort L-i Nuclear Fusion Plasma Control Using Model Predictive Control Laws

One of the main problems of fusion energy is to achieve longer pulse duration by avoiding the premature reaction decay due to plasma instabilities. The control of the plasma inductance arises as an essential tool for the successful operation of tokamak fusion reactors in order to overcome stability issues as well as the new challenges specific to advanced scenarios operation. In this sense, given that advanced tokamaks will suffer from limited power available from noninductive current drive actuators, the transformer primary coil could assist in reducing the power requirements of the noninductive current drive sources needed for current profile control. Therefore, tokamak operation may benefit from advanced control laws beyond the traditionally used PID schemes by reducing instabilities while guaranteeing the tokamak integrity. In this paper, a novel model predictive control (MPC) scheme has been developed and successfully employed to optimize both current and internal inductance of the plasma, which influences the L-H transition timing, the density peaking, and pedestal pressure. Results show that the internal inductance and current profiles can be adequately controlled while maintaining the minimal control action required in tokamak operation.