Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities

Published also as: Documento de Trabajo Banco de España 0504/2005.

Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Long-lived oscillatory incoherent electron dynamics in molecules: trans-polyacetylene oligomers

We identify an intriguing feature of the electron-vibrational dynamics of molecular systems via a computational examination of trans-polyacetylene oligomers. Here, via the vibronic interactions, the decay of an electron in the conduction band resonantly excites an electron in the valence band, and vice versa, leading to oscillatory exchange of electronic population between two distinct electronic states that lives for up to tens of picoseconds. The oscillatory structure is reminiscent of beating patterns between quantum states and is strongly suggestive of the presence of long-lived molecular electronic coherence. Significantly, however, a detailed analysis of the electronic coherence properties shows that the oscillatory structure arises from a purely incoherent process. These results were obtained by propagating the coupled dynamics of electronic and vibrational degrees of freedom in a mixed quantum-classical study of the Su-Schrieffer-Heeger Hamiltonian for polyacetylene. The incoherent process is shown to occur between degenerate electronic states with distinct electronic configurations that are indirectly coupled via a third auxiliary state by vibronic interactions. A discussion of how to construct electronic superposition states in molecules that are truly robust to decoherence is also presented

Evidence for classification of c.1852_1853AA > GC in MLH1 as a neutral variant for Lynch syndrome

Background: Lynch syndrome (LS) is an autosomal dominant inherited cancer syndrome characterized by early onset cancers of the colorectum, endometrium and other tumours. A significant proportion of DNA variants in LS patients are unclassified. Reports on the pathogenicity of the c.1852_1853AA>GC (p.Lys618Ala) variant of the MLH1 gene are conflicting. In this study, we provide new evidence indicating that this variant has no significant implications for LS. Methods: The following approach was used to assess the clinical significance of the p.Lys618Ala variant: frequency in a control population, case-control comparison, co-occurrence of the p.Lys618Ala variant with a pathogenic mutation, co-segregation with the disease and microsatellite instability in tumours from carriers of the variant. We genotyped p.Lys618Ala in 1034 individuals (373 sporadic colorectal cancer [CRC] patients, 250 index subjects from families suspected of having LS [revised Bethesda guidelines] and 411 controls). Three well-characterized LS families that fulfilled the Amsterdam II Criteria and consisted of members with the p.Lys618Ala variant were included to assess co-occurrence and co-segregation. A subset of colorectal tumour DNA samples from 17 patients carrying the p.Lys618Ala variant was screened for microsatellite instability using five mononucleotide markers. Results: Twenty-seven individuals were heterozygous for the p.Lys618Ala variant; nine had sporadic CRC (2.41%), seven were suspected of having hereditary CRC (2.8%) and 11 were controls (2.68%). There were no significant associations in the case-control and case-case studies. The p.Lys618Ala variant was co-existent with pathogenic mutations in two unrelated LS families. In one family, the allele distribution of the pathogenic and unclassified variant was in trans, in the other family the pathogenic variant was detected in the MSH6 gene and only the deleterious variant co-segregated with the disease in both families. Only two positive cases of microsatellite instability (2/17, 11.8%) were detected in tumours from p.Lys618Ala carriers, indicating that this variant does not play a role in functional inactivation of MLH1 in CRC patients. Conclusions: The p.Lys618Ala variant should be considered a neutral variant for LS. These findings have implications for the clinical management of CRC probands and their relatives.

Design and synthesis of quasi-diastereomeric molecules with unchanging central, regenerating axial and switchable helical chirality via cleavage and formation of Ni(II)–O and Ni(II)–N coordination bonds

9 p.

Budget-Neutral Financing to Unlock Energy Savings Potential: An Analysis of the ESCO Model in Barcelona

24 p.

Neutral red uptake (NRU) entseguaren optimizazioa lur-zizareen sistema immuneko zelulen kultibo primarioetan

Azken urteotan eman diren kutsatzaile desberdinen gehiegizko isurpen edo erabilpena dela eta, lurzoruetan metal astunak metatu dira eta horrek , kate trofikoaren oinarrian dauden organismoen gainean k altea k sorrarazi d itu. Eisenia fetida zizarea espezie zent inela gisa erabili da lur entsegu ekotoxikologi koet an . Esperimentu honetan Eisenia fetida - ren jariakin zelomikoan dauden eta babes funtzioa duten zelomozitoak pH desberdinetara edo Kadmio bezalako metalera esposatzeak Neutral Red (NR) edo gorri neutro tindatzaile kationikoaren harreran eta fagoz itosi ahalmenean , eragina duen aztertu nahi izan da. Esperimentua in vitro egin zen 3R filosofia jarraituz. Alde batetik, pH desberdinen eragin ari dagokio nez gorri neutroaren harrera ( NRU ) entsegua n erantzun bimodal bat behatu zen eta beste alde bate tik, f agozitatzeko ahalmenari dagokiola zelomozitoak Eagle medioan kultibatzean ez zen aldaketa esangarria ikusi kadmioa ren, kontr olaren eta kontrol positi boaren artean. Bai ordea L - 1 5 medioarekin, non kontrol posit iboa k beste biak baino absorbantzia handiagoa erakutsi zuen. Emaitza hauek erakusten dute zelomozitoe n mintza gradualki kaltetzen doala pH neutrotik aldentzen doan heinean eta puntu batetik aurrera NRU emendatzen da zelomozito batzuen (amebozitoen) fagozitosia aktibatzen d el a ko .

Coordination and crystallisation molecules: Their interactions affecting the dimensionality of metalloporphyrinic SCFs

Synthetic metalloporphyrin complexes are often used as analogues of natural systems, and they can be used for the preparation of new Solid Coordination Frameworks (SCFs). In this work, a series of six metalloporphyrinic compounds constructed from different meso substituted metalloporphyrins (phenyl, carboxyphenyl and sulfonatophenyl) have been structurally characterized by means of single crystal X-ray diffraction, IR spectroscopy and elemental analysis. The compounds were classified considering the dimensionality of the crystal array, referred just to coordination bonds, into 0D, 1D and 2D compounds. This way, the structural features and relationships of those crystal structures were analyzed, in order to extract conclusions not only about the dimensionality of the networks but also about possible applications of the as-obtained compounds, focusing the interest on the interactions of coordination and crystallization molecules. These interactions provide the coordination bonds and the cohesion forces which produce SCFs with different dimensionalities.

Spectroscopic analysis of atoms and molecules

151 p.

España neutral: el impacto económico de las dos guerras mundiales (1914-1945)

Durante las dos grandes guerras mundiales España adoptó una posición de no beligerancia que conllevaría a unas consecuencias y un impacto muy diferente para la economía española en uno y en otro conflicto. Por un lado España se presenta ante la Primera Guerra Mundial como una economía totalmente atrasada y agraria, mientras que con el estallido del conflicto supo aprovechar las necesidades del momento, permitiendo de esta manera un fuerte enriquecimiento. Por otro lado, en la Segunda Guerra Mundial España se encontraba totalmente destruida y con una fuerte inestabilidad, lo cual supuso que junto con las medidas autárquicas de la dictadura conllevaran a un periodo de penuria. IDIOMA: CASTELLANO

Fe−TPP Coordination Network with Metalloporphyrinic Neutral Radicals and Face-to-Face and Edge-to-Face π−π Stacking

Artículo científico Inorg. Chem. 2013, 52, 8074−8081