Trend analysis in two standard growth models

This paper analyzes the trend processes characterized by two standard growth models using simple econometrics. The first model is the basic neoclassical growth model that postulates a deterministic trend for output. The second model is the Uzawa-Lucas model that postulates a stochastic trend for output. The aim is to understand how the different trend processes for output assumed by these two standard growth models determine the ability of each model to explain the observed trend processes of other macroeconomic variables such as consumption and investment. The results show that the two models reproduce the output trend process. Moreover, the results show that the basic growth model captures properly the consumption trend process, but fails in characterizing the investment trend process. The reverse is true for the Uzawa-Lucas model.

La innovación empresarial y el emprendimiento: un análisis empírico

[ES]Este es un Trabajo Fin de Grado interdisciplinar que aúna la Innovación y el Emprendimiento con la Econometría. En la parte teórica, se sintetiza la literatura relacionada con la innovación y el emprendimiento, los tipos y medidas de innovación, los factores que influyen tanto positiva como negativamente en la innovación, y se explica la importancia de innovar en las empresas. Se analizan también las bases de datos sobre innovación disponibles en Internet. Mientras que en la parte empírica, se analiza el impacto del Producto Interior Bruto sobre la actividad emprendedora total y por motivos de necesidad u oportunidad de 67 países a nivel mundial. Los países están divididos en tres tipos, dependiendo de cual es el motor impulsor de su economía: los factores tradicionales de producción, los factores que mejoran su eficiencia y las economías basadas en la sofisticación de sus empresas y la innovación. Así mismo, se analiza la influencia del PIB y otras variables macroeconómicas como el nivel de educación superior, la inversión pública y privada en I+D+i y el número de patentes PCT con el emprendimiento innovador. Para ello, se han teniendo en cuenta los datos aportados en los Informes Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) y Innovation Union Scoreboard (IUS) para el año 2012.

Aplicación del Aprendizaje Basado en Problemas para el estudio de Funciones Reales de Variables Reales

Duración (en horas): De 21 a 30 horas. Nivel educativo: Grado

The Importance of Stock Market Returns in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules: a Structural Approach

This paper estimates a standard version of the New Keynesian Monetary (NKM) model augmented with financial variables in order to analyze the relative importance of stock market returns and term spread in the estimated U.S. monetary policy rule. The estimation procedure implemented is a classical structural method based on the indirect inference principle. The empirical results show that the Fed seems to respond to the macroeconomic outlook and to the stock market return but does not seem to respond to the term spread. Moreover, policy inertia and persistent policy shocks are also significant features of the estimated policy rule.

¿Reflejan los índices de riesgo país las variables relevantes en el desencadenamiento de las crisis externas? Un análisis sobre el periodo 1994-2001

[ES] El objetivo de este trabajo es establecer en qué medida los índices de riesgo país más utilizados por la comunidad económica y financiera internacional, en concreto, el índice de Euromoney y el ICRG, recogen las variables relevantes en el desencadenamiento de las crisis monetarias y financieras externas, como un aspecto básico en la evaluación de su capacidad para medir adecuadamente el riesgo de los diferentes países.

Data Revisions in the Estimation of DSGE Models

Revisions of US macroeconomic data are not white-noise. They are persistent, correlated with real-time data, and with high variability (around 80% of volatility observed in US real-time data). Their business cycle effects are examined in an estimated DSGE model extended with both real-time and final data. After implementing a Bayesian estimation approach, the role of both habit formation and price indexation fall significantly in the extended model. The results show how revision shocks of both output and inflation are expansionary because they occur when real-time published data are too low and the Fed reacts by cutting interest rates. Consumption revisions, by contrast, are countercyclical as consumption habits mirror the observed reduction in real-time consumption. In turn, revisions of the three variables explain 9.3% of changes of output in its long-run variance decomposition.

Behavioral profile of adults with Prader-Willi syndrome : correlations with individual and environmental variables

Background: Maladaptive behavior has been reported as a phenotypical feature in Prader–Willi syndrome (PWS). It severely limits social adaptation and the quality of life of children and adults with the syndrome. Different factors have been linked with the intensity and form of these behavioral disturbances but there is no consensus about the cause. Consequently, there is still controversy regarding management strategies and there is a need for new data. Methods: The behavior of 100 adults with PWS attending a dedicated center was assessed using the Developmental Behavior Checklist for Adults (DBC-A) and the PWS-specific Hyperphagia Questionnaire. The DBC-A was completed separately by trained caregivers at the center and relatives or caregivers in a natural setting. Genotype, gender, age, degree of obesity and cognitive impairment were analyzed as variables with a hypothetical influence on behavioral features. Results: Patients showed a relatively high rate of behavioral disturbances other than hyperphagia. Disruptive and social relating were the highest scoring DBC-A subscales whereas anxiety/antisocial and self-absorbed were the lowest. When hospital caregiver and natural caregiver scores were compared, scores for the latter were higher for all subscales except for disruptive and anxiety/antisocial. These effects of institutional management were underlined. In the DBC-A, 22 items have descriptive indications of PWS behavior and were used for further comparisons and correlation analysis. In contrast to previous reports, rates of disturbed behavior were lower in patients with a deletion genotype. However, the behavioral profile was similar for both genotypes. No differences were found in any measurement when comparing type I and type II deletions. The other analyzed variables showed little relevance. Conclusions: Significant rates of behavioral disorders were highlighted and their typology described in a large cohort of adults with PWS. The deletion genotype was related to a lower severity of symptoms. Some major behavioral problems, such as hyperphagia, may be well controlled if living circumstances are adapted to the specific requirements of individuals with PWS.

Use of generalised additive models to categorise continuous variables in clinical prediction

13 P.

Polímeros de Coordinación con Centros Metálicos en Entornos de Coordinación Variables: Posibles Aplicaciones.

Presentación de power point. Comunicación oral presentada en el 1er Simposium sobre Propiedades y Aplicaciones de MOFs y COFs, celebrado en Granada en abril de 2015

Valorization of scrap tires pyrolysis oil (STPO) through a 2-stage hydrotreating-hydrocracking strategy. Process variables and kinetic modeling

232 p.

Hidrocraqueo de aromáticos ligeros a n-alcanos C2+. Variables de proceso y modelado cinético

323 p.

Proposal and validation of methodologies for the categorisation of continuous variables in the development of prediction models

158 p.

Effects of an emotional intelligence program in variables related to the prevention of violence

In recent decades, numerous studies have shown a significant increase in violence during childhood and adolescence. These data suggest the importance of implementing programs to prevent and reduce violent behavior. The study aimed to design a program of emotional intelligence (El) for adolescents and to assess its effects on variables related to violence prevention. The possible differential effect of the program on both genders was also examined. The sample comprised 148 adolescents aged from 13 to 16 years. The study used an experimental design with repeated pretest-posttest measures and control groups. To measure the variables, four assessment instruments were administered before and after the program, as well as in the follow-up phase (1 year after the conclusion of the intervention). The program consisted of 20 one-hour sessions. The pretest-posttest ANCOVAs showed that the program significantly increased: (1) El (attention, clarity, emotional repair); (2) assertive cognitive social interaction strategies; (3) internal control of anger; and (4) the cognitive ability to analyze negative feelings. In the follow-up phase, the positive effects of the intervention were generally maintained and, moreover, the use of aggressive strategies as an interpersonal conflict-resolution technique was significantly reduced. Regarding the effect of the program on both genders, the change was very similar, but the boys increased assertive social interaction strategies, attention, and emotional clarity significantly more than the girls. The importance of implementing programs to promote socio-emotional development and prevent violence is discussed.