Terrorism and the World Economy

Published as an article in: European Economic Review, 2008, vol. 52, issue 1, pages 1-27.

INTERPOL's surveillance network in curbing transnational terrorism

This paper investigates the role that INTERPOL surveillance – the Mobile INTERPOL Network Database (MIND) and the Fixed INTERPOL Network Database (FIND) – played in the War on Terror since its inception in 2005. MIND/FIND surveillance allows countries to screen people and documents systematically at border crossings against INTERPOL databases on terrorists, fugitives, and stolen and lost travel documents. Such documents have been used in the past by terrorists to transit borders. By applying methods developed in the treatment-effects literature, this paper establishes that countries adopting MIND/FIND experienced fewer transnational terrorist attacks than had they not adopted MIND/FIND. Our estimates indicate that, on average, during 2008–2011, adopting and using MIND/FIND results in 1.23 fewer transnational terrorist incidents each year per 100 million people. Thus, a country like France with a population just above 64 million people in 2008 would have 0.79 fewer transnational terrorist incidents per year owing to its use of INTERPOL surveillance. For most treatment countries, this amounts to a sizeable proportional reduction of about 60 per cent.

Linguistic Polarization and Conflict in the Basque Country

This paper investigates the relationship between linguistic polarization and conflict in the Basque Country. During the 40 years of Franco’s dictatorship the use of the Basque language was banned. Therefore, there may be some linguistic roots underlying the conflict in the Basque Country. We show that at the municipality level, linguistic polarization reduces the level of conflict. This finding is robust to various ways of measuring linguistic and ideological polarization and the inclusion of other covariates. In addition, we find that a high level of the stock of human capital is beneficial for reducing conflict intensity.

Lessons from the northern hake long-term management plan: Could the economic assessment have accepted it?

An economic expert working group (STECF/SGBRE-07-05) was convened in 2007 for evaluating the potential economic consequences of a Long-Term Management Plan for the northern hake. Analyzing all the scenarios proposed by biological assessment, they found that keeping the F in the status quo level was the best policy in terms of net present values for both yield and profits. This result is counter intuitive because it may indicate that effort costs do no affect the economic reference points. However, it is well accepted that the inclusion of costs affects negatively the economic reference points. In this paper, applying a dynamic agestructured model to the northern hake, we show that the optimal fishing mortality that maximizes the net present value of profits is lower than Fmax.

Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Israel: una sociedad en tensión constante

[ES]Israel es un país marcado por la excepcionalidad. Con esto quiero referirme a que su forma de nacer, el contexto regional donde está ubicado y su propio desarrollo, han hecho de este país un verdadero laboratorio social. El estado hebreo se ha constituido desde el concepto de judeidad y mediante la inmigración judía masiva, lo que ha hecho que en su seno se den numerosas opciones identitarias. Todo ello casi en constantes guerras con sus vecinos árabes y sufriendo el zarpazo del terrorismo. Esto ha hecho que en Israel aspectos como la seguridad, el ejército y los Derechos Humanos hayan sido variables que este país ha tenido y tiene que gestionar. Esta realidad ha determinado de manera decisiva su articulación como sociedad y su propio desarrollo político tanto nacional como internacional. Este artículo pretende dar algunas claves para entender la complejidad de una sociedad, la israelí, en tensión constante.

Osagai eta sistema elektronikoen teknologia

Helburuak: Liburu honetan zehar, osagai, zirkuitu eta sistema elektronikoak gauzatzeko erabiltzen diren teknologiez aritzen gara. Teknologia elektronikoa izugarri garatu da azkeneko berrogei urteotan, batez ere azkeneko bi hamarkadetan, eta ezinezkoa litzateke teknologia elektronikoaren ikuspegi oso eta zabala testuliburu bakarrean ematea. Aldiz, ingeniari elektronikoak osagai elektroniko erabilienen teknologia ulertzeko eta osagaien aukeraketa eta erabilera egokia egiteko beharrezkoak izango dituen ezagutzak testu bakarrean bildu nahi izan ditugu. Norentzat izan daiteke baliagarria: Ingeniaritza elektronikoaren edozein adarretan ikasten ari diren ikasleei zuzenduta dago testu hau batez ere, baina ingeniaritza elektrikoko ikasleentzat ere interesgarria izango delakoan gaude. Bestalde, lanbide heziketan, Elektrizitate eta Elektronika arloan aritzen diren ikasle eta irakasleentzat ere baliogarria izan daiteke kontsultarako testu gisa.

International Support of Climate Change Policies in Developing Countries: Strategic, Moral and Fairness Aspects

33 p.

The Demand for Environmental Quality in Driving Transitions to Low Polluting Energy Sources

38 p.

Industria eta lurraldea

Ikasmaterial honen helburu nagusiak honako hauek dira: Aktibitate ekonomikoen eta bereziki industriaren artean eta lurraldearen artean dagoen harremana ulertzea eta azaltzea. Lurraldearen izaera aktiboa erakustea: enpresak, azpiegiturak eta giza baliabideak erakartzeko.

The impact of economic crises on social inequalities in health: what do we know so far?

Since 2008, Western countries are going through a deep economic crisis whose health impacts seem to be fundamentally counter-cyclical: when economic conditions worsen, so does health, and mortality tends to rise. While a growing number of studies have presented evidence on the effect of crises on the average population health, a largely neglected aspect of research is the impact of crises and the related political responses on social inequalities in health, even if the negative consequences of the crises are primarily borne by the most disadvantaged populations. This commentary will reflect on the results of the studies that have analyzed the effect of economic crises on social inequalities in health up to 2013. With some exceptions, the studies show an increase in health inequalities during crises, especially during the Southeast Asian and Japanese crises and the Soviet Union crisis, although it is not always evident for both sexes or all health or socioeconomic variables. In the Nordic countries during the nineties, a clear worsening of health equity did not occur. Results about the impacts of the current economic recession on health equity are still inconsistent. Some of the factors that could explain this variability in results are the role of welfare state policies, the diversity of time periods used in the analyses, the heterogeneity of socioeconomic and health variables considered, the changes in the socioeconomic profile of the groups under comparison in times of crises, and the type of measures used to analyze the magnitude of social inequalities in health. Social epidemiology should further collaborate with other disciplines to help produce more accurate and useful evidence about the relationship between crises and health equity.