Data Revisions in the Estimation of DSGE Models

Revisions of US macroeconomic data are not white-noise. They are persistent, correlated with real-time data, and with high variability (around 80% of volatility observed in US real-time data). Their business cycle effects are examined in an estimated DSGE model extended with both real-time and final data. After implementing a Bayesian estimation approach, the role of both habit formation and price indexation fall significantly in the extended model. The results show how revision shocks of both output and inflation are expansionary because they occur when real-time published data are too low and the Fed reacts by cutting interest rates. Consumption revisions, by contrast, are countercyclical as consumption habits mirror the observed reduction in real-time consumption. In turn, revisions of the three variables explain 9.3% of changes of output in its long-run variance decomposition.

Espainako ekonomiarako eskari sistema baten estimazioa: fruten kasua

Lan honen helburua, Espainiako ekonomiarako fruten eskari sistema estimatzea da. Horretarako, ustez fruten kontsumoan eragina duten aldagaien aukeraketa egin da, zehazki familien ezaugarriei lotutakoak (adina, ikasketa maila, familiaren indibiduo kopurua adin ezberdineko, bizilekua eta nazionalitatea) eta merkatuari lotutakoak (fruten prezioa eta gastua). Bestelako emaitzen artean, faktore ekonomikoak fruten kontsumoan eragin nabarmena dute, familien bizilekua eta kide kopuruarekin batera. Gainera, fruta mota bakoitzarentzat kontsumo ohitura ezberdinak daude, batzuk elkarrekin kontsumitzen dira eta beste batzuk ordezten joaten baitira. EUSKERA

European Newspapers’ Digital Transition: New Products and New Audiences

The adaptation of traditional newspapers to new digital media and its interface, far from being a mere technical transformation, has contributed to a gradual change in the media themselves and their audiences. With a sample including the top general information pay newspaper in each of the 28 countries of the European Union, this research has carried out an analysis using 17 indicators divided in 4 categories. The aim is to identify the transformations that the implementation of digital media have brought to the top European newspapers. In general terms, the results show that most dailies have managed to keep their leadership also in online environment. Moreover, an emerging group of global media is growing up, based in preexisting national media. Digital and mobile media have contributed to the appearance of new consumption habits as well, where users read more superficially and sporadically. The audience uses several formats at a time, and digital devices already bring the biggest amount of users to many media. The Internet-created new information windows –search engines, social networks, etc. –are also contributing to the change in professional work routines.

Internet y Redes Sociales

Sin apenas darnos cuenta, las Tecnologías de la Información y Comunicación (TIC) han pasado a formar parte de nuestra vida, revolucionando todos los ámbitos de nuestra economía y de nuestra sociedad. Ya nada es igual a como lo era ayer. La tecnología ha cambiado tanto el modo en el que se hacen los negocios, la forma en la que nos relacionamos con los demás, como nuestros hábitos de ocio y de consumo. A lo largo del presente trabajo, analizaremos con detenimiento el fenómeno de Internet y las redes sociales, así como el impacto que están teniendo tanto en la sociedad como en el tejido empresarial español. En este marco, describiremos y haremos un análisis comparativo de las redes sociales más comunes en España, y contemplaremos las posibilidades que ofrecen éstas para su utilización en el marco de las estrategias de marketing.

Marketing Ecológico: análisis teórico, estudio empírico a consumidores y análisis del diferencial de precios

ESPAÑOL:Este Trabajo de Fin de Grado se centra en el estudio, tanto teórico como empírico, de cuestiones relacionadas esencialmente con el conocimiento, consumo y marketing de productos ecológicos. Comienza con el marco teórico basado en la revisión bibliográfica de los trabajos publicados sobre la materia que se adjuntan en la bibliografía relacionada al final. Posteriormente, se presentan los resultados de una encuesta que realizamos a 63 personas que realizan habitualmente la compra de su hogar y que tuvo como objeto descubrir el grado de conocimiento que tienen sobre los productos eco, el consumo particular que hacen de los mismos y las razones que les impulsan a su consumo o que frenan el mismo, diferenciando el caso de los productos ecológicos de alimentación de los demás productos ecológicos. Se completa el trabajo con la presentación de un análisis empírico del diferencial de precios de los productos ecológicos frente a los de los productos convencionales de similares características. Para ello nos centramos exclusivamente en los productos (ecológicos y no ecológicos) vendidos en la plataforma de venta on line por una gran empresa española de distribución de base alimentaria, concretamente, Eroski.

Analysis of Body Composition and Food Habits of Spanish Celiac Women

The purpose of the present work was both to analyze composition of Spanish celiac women and to study the food habits and gluten-free diet of these celiac patients, in order to determine whether they achieve a balanced and healthy diet as well as to highlight nutritional qualitative and/or quantitative differences. 54 adult celiac women (34 +/- 13 years) took part in the six-month study. Height, weight and body composition were measured. An analysis of energy consumption and of the macronutrient distribution of their diet was carried out. Their fulfillment of micronutrient intake recommendations was verified. Participants showed a Body Mass Index of 21.6 +/- 2.4 kg/m(2). Energy Intake was slightly lower than the Dietary Reference Intakes. Excessive protein apart from over-consumption of fat was observed. More than three quarters of participants consumed meat in excess. Carbohydrate consumption along with that of fiber was below recommended levels. Vitamin D, iron, and iodine had a low percentage of recommendation compliance. In general, participants followed the recommendations of dairy products and fruit intake whereas vegetable consumption was not enough for the vast majority. We conclude that although the diet of celiac women does not differ much from the diet of general population, some considerations, such as reducing fat and protein consumption and increasing fiber intake, must be taken into account.

Population age structure and private consumption in Spain

In this paper we study the effect of population age distribution upon private consumption expenditure in Spain from 1964 to 1997 using aggregate data. We obtain four main results. First, changes in the population pyramid have substantial effects upon the behaviour of private consumption. Second, the pattern of the coefficients of the demographic variables is not consistent with the simplest version of the life cycle hypothesis. Third, we estimate the impact of the demographic transition upon consumption and find positive values associated with episodes in which the shares of groups of individuals with expenditure levels higher (lower) than the mean increased (decreased). Fourth, the results are robust to alternative specifications for the population age distribution.

Consumption and portfolio rules whit stochastic hyperbolic discounting

We extend the classic Merton (1969, 1971) problem that investigates the joint consumption-savings and portfolio-selection problem under capital risk by assuming sophisticated but time-inconsistent agents. We introduce stochastic hyperbolic preferences as in Harris and Laibson (2013) and find closed-form solutions for Merton's optimal consumption and portfolio selection problem in continuous time. We find that the portfolio rule remains identical to the time-consistent solution with power utility and no borrowing constraints. However,the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth is unambiguously greater than the time-consistent, exponential case and,importantly, it is also more responsive to changes in risk. These results suggest that hyperbolic discounting with sophisticated agents offers promise for contributing to explaining important aspects of asset market data.

Cheese consumption and prevalence of overweight and obesity in a Basque adult population: a crosssectional study

[EN] Studies have reported a negative association between dairy product consumption and weight status. However, not as much research has focused on cheese; therefore, the aim of this study was to study the association between cheese intake and overweight and obesity in a representative Basque adult population. A food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) was obtained from a random sample of 1081 adults (530 males and 551 females, 17–96 years old). Cheese consumption data were expressed as g/1000 kcal/day. The prevalence of overweight/obesity was higher in men (55.1%) than in women (35.4%) (p50.001). Participants with low or moderate intake of fresh and processed cheese demonstrated a higher prevalence of excess weight, compared with those with higher consumption. The confounding variables selected in multivariate analysis were occupational status and age in both genders; and place of residence in men. In conclusion, negative associations were found between consumption of some types of cheese and overweight and obesity in this population.

Modeling habits as self-sustaining patterns of sensorimotor behavior

In the recent history of psychology and cognitive neuroscience, the notion of habit has been reduced to a stimulus-triggered response probability correlation. In this paper we use a computational model to present an alternative theoretical view (with some philosophical implications), where habits are seen as self-maintaining patterns of behavior that share properties in common with self-maintaining biological processes, and that inhabit a complex ecological context, including the presence and influence of other habits. Far from mechanical automatisms, this organismic and self-organizing concept of habit can overcome the dominating atomistic and statistical conceptions, and the high temporal resolution effects of situatedness, embodiment and sensorimotor loops emerge as playing a more central, subtle and complex role in the organization of behavior. The model is based on a novel "iterant deformable sensorimotor medium (IDSM)," designed such that trajectories taken through sensorimotor-space increase the likelihood that in the future, similar trajectories will be taken. We couple the IDSM to sensors and motors of a simulated robot, and show that under certain conditions, the IDSM conditions, the IDSM forms self-maintaining patterns of activity that operate across the IDSM, the robot's body, and the environment. We present various environments and the resulting habits that form in them. The model acts as an abstraction of habits at a much needed sensorimotor "meso-scale" between microscopic neuron-based models and macroscopic descriptions of behavior. Finally, we discuss how this model and extensions of it can help us understand aspects of behavioral self-organization, historicity and autonomy that remain out of the scope of contemporary representationalist frameworks.

Propuesta de intervención de actividad física contra el sedentarismo en lonjas juveniles del barrio bilbaino de Zorrotza

[ES] Con el presente estudio descriptivo se pretende obtener los siguientes objetivos: reunir la mayor bibliografía posible sobre las lonjas juveniles. Conocer estos tipos de espacios y qué actividades son las que se realizan en ellos. Tomando como punto de partida la observación de una lonja ubicada en el barrio Bilbaíno de Zorroza, se analizarán los comportamientos que se dan en estos espacios. Además se pretende ofrecer terminología sobre la juventud de hoy en día y las actividades de ocio en las que participan. Los estudios previos destacan un elevado consumo de drogas seguido de hábitos sedentarios. Al mismo tiempo, se presenta una propuesta de intervención en estos espacios y poder así ofrecer alternativas de ocio contra el sedentarismo a medio y largo plazo. Se espera de este trabajo que nos ofrezca más información sobre las actividades que se realizan en las lonjas juveniles y el tipo de drogas que más se consumen ellas, así como la frecuencia con la que se consumen.