Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe

This paper shows the extraordinary capacity of yield spreads to anticipate consumption growth as proxy by the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission in order to predict turning points in business cycles. This new evidence complements the well known results regarding the usefulness of the slope of the term structure of interest rates to predict real economic conditions and, in particular, recessions by using a direct measure of expectations. A linear combination of European yield spreads explains a surprising 93.7% of the variability of the Economic Sentiment Indicator. Yield spreads seem to be a key determinant of consumer confidence in Europe.

Propuestas para una segmentación estratégica del mercado ecológico

[ES] La creciente concienciación medioambiental y la necesidad de atender a las nuevas demandas ecológicas del mercado, obligan a las empresas a desarrollar instrumentos de análisis para ahondar en su conocimiento. La segmentación de mercados es un instrumento analítico válido para inferir características diferenciales de los consumidores ecológicos y adecuar la estrategia de marketing a las preferencias de los segmentos detectados. En este trabajo analizamos las limitaciones de los criterios de segmentación tradicionales y las ventajas de las segmentaciones multicriterio para recoger la complejidad inherente al consumidor ecológico y definir la estrategia de marketing ecológico. Así mismo, presentamos algunas de las segmentaciones del mercado ecológico más relevantes.

Uncovering Ecosystem Service Bundles through Social Preferences

11 p.

Consumer Expertise or Credit Risk? An empirical analysis of mortgage pricing

Loan mortgage interest rates are usually the result of a bank-customer negotiation process. Credit risk, consumer cross-buying potential, bundling, financial market competition and other features affecting the bargaining power of the parties could affect price. We argue that, since mortgage loan is a complex product, consumer expertise could be a relevant factor for mortgage pricing. Using data on mortgage loan prices for a sample of 1055 households for the year 2005 (Bank of Spain Survey of Household Finances, EFF-2005), and including credit risk, costs, potential capacity of the consumer to generate future business and bank competition variables, the regression results indicate that consumer expertise-related metrics are highly significant as predictors of mortgage loan prices. Other factors such as credit risk and consumer cross-buying potential do not have such a significant impact on mortgage prices. Our empirical results are affected by the credit conditions prior to the financial crisis and could shed some light on this issue.

Optimal Monetary Policy with Asymmetric Preferences for Output

Using a model of an optimizing monetary authority which has preferences that weigh inflation and unemployment, Ruge-Murcia (2003, 2004) finds empirical evidence that the authority has asymmetric preferences for unemployment. We extend this model to weigh inflation and output and show that the empirical evidence using these series also supports an asymmetric preference hypothesis, only in our case, preferences are asymmetric for output. We also find evidence that the monetary authority targets potential output rather than some higher output level as would be the case in an extended Barro and Gordon (1983) model.

Preferences, actions and voting rules

In this paper we address several issues related to collective dichotomous decision-making by means of quaternary voting rules, i.e., when voters may choose between four actions: voting yes, voting no, abstaining and not turning up-which are aggregated by a voting rule into a dichotomous decision: acceptance or rejection of a proposal. In particular we study the links between the actions and preferences of the actors. We show that quaternary rules (unlike binary rules, where only two actions -yes or no- are possible) leave room for "manipulability" (i.e., strategic behaviour). Thus a preference profile does not in general determine an action profile. We also deal with the notions of success and decisiveness and their ex ante assessment for quaternary voting rules, and discuss the role of information and coordination in this context.

Weighting social preferences in participatory multi-criteria evaluations: a case study on sustainable natural resource management

28 p.

Comparison of marketing policies applied by the same company in different countries and analysis of the reasons for the differences

The focus of this project is going to be, as the title indicates, on the comparison of marketing policies applied by the same company in different countries and analysis of the reasons for the differences. In order to do that, I have selected the company Nestlé to analyze the marketing decisions it makes across national boundaries to market the brand of Kit Kat and keep it as a leader snack worldwide. After having analyzed the brand in all continents, I can say the execution of the strategy used by Nestlé with Kit Kat really matches the planning of the strategy which is to think globally and act locally. Nestlé uses global brand identity but, from the internal point of view, it uses local ingredients and gives autonomy to its local branches based in different countries to make pricing and distributions decisions and therefore satisfy different consumers’ needs and preferences in local environments where changes happen very rapidly. The “glocal” approach to marketing is an effective way for Nestlé Kit Kat to stay focused on the consumer in worldwide markets.

Reconciling yield stability with international fisheries agencies precautionary preferences: the role of non constant discount factors in age structured models

International fisheries agencies recommend exploitation paths that satisfy two features. First, for precautionary reasons exploitation paths should avoid high fishing mortality in those fisheries where the biomass is depleted to a degree that jeopardise the stock's capacity to produce the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). Second, for economic and social reasons, captures should be as stable (smooth) as possible over time. In this article we show that a conflict between these two interests may occur when seeking for optimal exploitation paths using age structured bioeconomic approach. Our results show that this conflict be overtaken by using non constant discount factors that value future stocks considering their relative intertemporal scarcity.

Marketing de la moda. Condicionantes y claves de éxito

El presente trabajo analiza algunas de las claves más importantes de la comercialización de la moda, actualmente condicionada por los muchos e importantes cambios experimentados en el mercado. Entre los que más han afectado a esta industria, destacan los avances tecnológicos, el nuevo comportamiento del consumidor o las nuevas formas de distribución. Se muestran algunas de las diferentes estrategias y herramientas que han adoptado las marcas para la comercialización de los productos, teniendo en cuenta los gustos y preferencias de los consumidores. Finalmente, se aborda el efecto que ha tenido la aparición de los blogs para la venta de moda, gracias a entrevistas realizadas a personas influyentes en este ámbito.

What Can the Brain Teach Us about Winemaking? An fMRI Study of Alcohol Level Preferences

Over the last few decades, wine makers have been producing wines with a higher alcohol content, assuming that they are more appreciated by consumers. To test this hypothesis, we used functional magnetic imaging to compare reactions of human subjects to different types of wine, focusing on brain regions critical for flavor processing and food reward. Participants were presented with carefully matched pairs of high- and low- alcohol content red wines, without informing them of any of the wine attributes. Contrary to expectation, significantly greater activation was found for low- alcohol than for high- alcohol content wines in brain regions that are sensitive to taste intensity, including the insula as well as the cerebellum. Wines were closely matched for all physical attributes except for alcohol content, thus we interpret the preferential response to the low- alcohol content wines as arising from top-down modulation due to the low alcohol content wines inducing greater attentional exploration of aromas and flavours. The findings raise intriguing possibilities for objectively testing hypotheses regarding methods of producing a highly complex product such as wine.