The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

El nuevo consenso de Augusto

[ES] En el caso romano, la stásis por antonomasia es la crisis de la República, cuya resolución traumática conduce a la superación del propio sistema republicano y al surgimiento del Principado de Augusto. El régimen augusteo, tras una fase previa de enfrentamientos civiles, se consolida, apoyado, entres otros elementos, en un nuevo consenso y en la reelaboración de la tradición republicana anterior, que permiten difuminar los elementos autocráticos del sistema. La idea de patria constituye un concepto clave en la ideología del nuevo régimen.