Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

Is there a Phillips Curve in the US and the EU15 Countries? An empirical investigation

This paper studies the comovement between output and inflation in the EU15 countries. Following den Haan (2000), I use the correlations of VAR forecast errors at different horizons in order to analyze the output-inflation relationship. The empirical results show that eight countries display a significant positive comovement between output and inflation. Moreover, the empirical evidence suggests that a Phillips curve phenomenom is more likely to be detected in countries where inflation is more stable.

Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.

Two-magnon bound state causes ultrafast thermally induced magnetisation switching

There has been much interest recently in the discovery of thermally induced magnetisation switching using femtosecond laser excitation, where a ferrimagnetic system can be switched deterministically without an applied magnetic field. Experimental results suggest that the reversal occurs due to intrinsic material properties, but so far the microscopic mechanism responsible for reversal has not been identified. Using computational and analytic methods we show that the switching is caused by the excitation of two-magnon bound states, the properties of which are dependent on material factors. This discovery allows us to accurately predict the onset of switching and the identification of this mechanism will allow new classes of materials to be identified or designed for memory devices in the THz regime.

From transistor to trapped-ion computers for quantum chemistry

Over the last few decades, quantum chemistry has progressed through the development of computational methods based on modern digital computers. However, these methods can hardly fulfill the exponentially-growing resource requirements when applied to large quantum systems. As pointed out by Feynman, this restriction is intrinsic to all computational models based on classical physics. Recently, the rapid advancement of trapped-ion technologies has opened new possibilities for quantum control and quantum simulations. Here, we present an efficient toolkit that exploits both the internal and motional degrees of freedom of trapped ions for solving problems in quantum chemistry, including molecular electronic structure, molecular dynamics, and vibronic coupling. We focus on applications that go beyond the capacity of classical computers, but may be realizable on state-of-the-art trapped-ion systems. These results allow us to envision a new paradigm of quantum chemistry that shifts from the current transistor to a near-future trapped-ion-based technology.

An Alternative View of the US Price-Dividend Ratio Dynamics

As a necessary condition for the validity of the present value model, the price-dividend ratio must be stationary. However, significant market episodes seem to provide evidence of prices significantly drifting apart from dividends while other episodes show prices anchoring back to dividends. This paper investigates the stationarity of this ratio in the context of a Markov- switching model à la Hamilton (1989) where an asymmetric speed of adjustment towards a unique attractor is introduced. A three-regime model displays the best regime identification and reveals that the first part of the 90’s boom (1985-1995) and the post-war period are characterized by a stationary state featuring a slow reverting process to a relatively high attractor. Interestingly, the latter part of the 90’s boom (1996-2000), characterized by a growing price-dividend ratio, is entirely attributed to a stationary regime featuring a highly reverting process to the attractor. Finally, the post-Lehman Brothers episode of the subprime crisis can be classified into a temporary nonstationary regime.

Spin-helical Dirac states in graphene induced by polar-substrate surfaces with giant spin-orbit interaction: a new platform for spintronics

Spintronics, or spin electronics, is aimed at efficient control and manipulation of spin degrees of freedom in electron systems. To comply with demands of nowaday spintronics, the studies of electron systems hosting giant spin-orbit-split electron states have become one of the most important problems providing us with a basis for desirable spintronics devices. In construction of such devices, it is also tempting to involve graphene, which has attracted great attention because of its unique and remarkable electronic properties and was recognized as a viable replacement for silicon in electronics. In this case, a challenging goal is to lift spin degeneracy of graphene Dirac states. Here, we propose a novel pathway to achieve this goal by means of coupling of graphene and polar-substrate surface states with giant Rashba-type spin-splitting. We theoretically demonstrate it by constructing the graphene@BiTeCl system, which appears to possess spin-helical graphene Dirac states caused by the strong interaction of Dirac and Rashba electrons. We anticipate that our findings will stimulate rapid growth in theoretical and experimental investigations of graphene Dirac states with real spin-momentum locking, which can revolutionize the graphene spintronics and become a reliable base for prospective spintronics applications.

The Forbidden Quantum Adder

Quantum information provides fundamentally different computational resources than classical information. We prove that there is no unitary protocol able to add unknown quantum states belonging to different Hilbert spaces. This is an inherent restriction of quantum physics that is related to the impossibility of copying an arbitrary quantum state, i.e., the no-cloning theorem. Moreover, we demonstrate that a quantum adder, in absence of an ancillary system, is also forbidden for a known orthonormal basis. This allows us to propose an approximate quantum adder that could be implemented in the lab. Finally, we discuss the distinct character of the forbidden quantum adder for quantum states and the allowed quantum adder for density matrices.

Beyond Q-Resolution and Prenex Form: a Proof System for Quantified Constraint Satisfaction

We consider the quanti fied constraint satisfaction problem (QCSP) which is to decide, given a structure and a first-order sentence (not assumed here to be in prenex form) built from conjunction and quanti fication, whether or not the sentence is true on the structure. We present a proof system for certifying the falsity of QCSP instances and develop its basic theory; for instance, we provide an algorithmic interpretation of its behavior. Our proof system places the established Q-resolution proof system in a broader context, and also allows us to derive QCSP tractability results.

A novel brain partition highlights the modular skeleton shared by structure and function

Elucidating the intricate relationship between brain structure and function, both in healthy and pathological conditions, is a key challenge for modern neuroscience. Recent progress in neuroimaging has helped advance our understanding of this important issue, with diffusion images providing information about structural connectivity (SC) and functional magnetic resonance imaging shedding light on resting state functional connectivity (rsFC). Here, we adopt a systems approach, relying on modular hierarchical clustering, to study together SC and rsFC datasets gathered independently from healthy human subjects. Our novel approach allows us to find a common skeleton shared by structure and function from which a new, optimal, brain partition can be extracted. We describe the emerging common structure-function modules (SFMs) in detail and compare them with commonly employed anatomical or functional parcellations. Our results underline the strong correspondence between brain structure and resting-state dynamics as well as the emerging coherent organization of the human brain.

What Can the Brain Teach Us about Winemaking? An fMRI Study of Alcohol Level Preferences

Over the last few decades, wine makers have been producing wines with a higher alcohol content, assuming that they are more appreciated by consumers. To test this hypothesis, we used functional magnetic imaging to compare reactions of human subjects to different types of wine, focusing on brain regions critical for flavor processing and food reward. Participants were presented with carefully matched pairs of high- and low- alcohol content red wines, without informing them of any of the wine attributes. Contrary to expectation, significantly greater activation was found for low- alcohol than for high- alcohol content wines in brain regions that are sensitive to taste intensity, including the insula as well as the cerebellum. Wines were closely matched for all physical attributes except for alcohol content, thus we interpret the preferential response to the low- alcohol content wines as arising from top-down modulation due to the low alcohol content wines inducing greater attentional exploration of aromas and flavours. The findings raise intriguing possibilities for objectively testing hypotheses regarding methods of producing a highly complex product such as wine.