Daily scale wintertime sea surface temperature and IPC-Navidad variability in the southern Bay of Biscay from 1981 to 2010

The combination of remotely sensed gappy Sea surface temperature (SST) images with the missing data filling DINEOF (data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions) technique, followed by a principal component analysis of the reconstructed data, has been used to identify the time evolution and the daily scale variability of the wintertime surface signal of the Iberian Poleward Current (IPC), or Navidad, during the 1981-2010 period. An exhaustive comparison with the existing bibliography, and the vertical temperature and salinity profiles related to its extremes over the Bay of Biscay area, show that the obtained time series accurately reflect the IPC-Navidad variability. Once a time series for the evolution of the SST signal of the current over the last decades is well established, this time series is used to propose a physical mechanism in relation to the variability of the IPC-Navidad, involving both atmospheric and oceanic variables. According to the proposed mechanism, an atmospheric circulation anomaly observed in both the 500 hPa and the surface levels generates atmospheric surface level pressure, wind-stress and heat-flux anomalies. In turn, those surface level atmospheric anomalies induce mutually coherent SST and sea level anomalies over the North Atlantic area, and locally, in the Bay of Biscay area. These anomalies, both locally over the Bay of Biscay area and over the North Atlantic, are in agreement with several mechanisms that have separately been related to the variability of the IPC-Navidad, i.e. the south-westerly winds, the joint effect of baroclinicity and relief (JEBAR) effect, the topographic beta effect and a weakened North Atlantic gyre.

The Ohlin-Keynes Debate on the German Interwar Reparations Revisited

This paper analyzes the debate between Ohlin and Keynes on the question as to whether Germany was able to make the payments specified in the Dawes Plan. Keynes argued that Germany was able to collect the money but unable to transfer it to the victors because there existed an insurmountable “transfer problem”. Ohlin replied that such a “transfer problem” did not exist and, therefore, that Germany was able to make the payments stipulated by the Dawes Committee. This paper analyzes the positions of the two contenders and argues that the problems are not correctly delimited and that the theoretical bases of the contenders show serious deficiencies. It also brings to light some interesting theoretical and practical paradoxes that neither Keynes nor Ohlin dealt with.

Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities

Published also as: Documento de Trabajo Banco de España 0504/2005.

Data Revisions in the Estimation of DSGE Models

Revisions of US macroeconomic data are not white-noise. They are persistent, correlated with real-time data, and with high variability (around 80% of volatility observed in US real-time data). Their business cycle effects are examined in an estimated DSGE model extended with both real-time and final data. After implementing a Bayesian estimation approach, the role of both habit formation and price indexation fall significantly in the extended model. The results show how revision shocks of both output and inflation are expansionary because they occur when real-time published data are too low and the Fed reacts by cutting interest rates. Consumption revisions, by contrast, are countercyclical as consumption habits mirror the observed reduction in real-time consumption. In turn, revisions of the three variables explain 9.3% of changes of output in its long-run variance decomposition.

Mujer y vino en la comedia griega

Presentado en las Jornadas sobre "Expresiones del humor desde la Antigüedad hasta nuestros días", organizadas por el Departamento de Estudios Clásicos y el Instituto de Ciencias de la Antigüedad de la UPV/EHU y celebradas en Vitoria-Gasteiz del 20 al 22 de octubre de 2009.

Carbon leakage and the future of Old Industrial Regions after Copenhagen

35 p.

The Determinants of Energy Efficiency Investments in the U.S.

31 p.

Análisis de precios del mercado diario de electricidad español

El trabajo analiza los precios de la electricidad del mercado diario español. En el mismo se realiza un estudio del mercado eléctrico español y sus componentes junto con un análisis de los cambios regulatorios más significativos durante el periodo muestral. A partir de allí, se analiza la muestra a través de los estadísticos descriptivos principales. Luego se presenta un modelo general que es analizado a partir de los resultados empíricos principales obtenidos con su estimación. Finalmente, se realizan ajustes al mismo para obtener un modelo simplificado que se ajuste mejor a lo que se quiere conseguir, que es analizar la evolución de los precios de la electricidad. Los resultados del ajuste arrojan que los precios horarios dependen en su mayor parte de los precios de las horas anteriores. También que el modelo recoge muy bien la estacionalidad mensual y horaria que presenta la muestra. Por otro lado, características de la serie de precios como son la volatilidad y los saltos no quedan bien recogidos por el modelo, lo que lleva a plantearse la búsqueda de modelos alternativos.

Análisis de precios del mercado diario de electricidad español

El trabajo analiza los precios de la electricidad del mercado diario español. En el mismo se realiza un estudio del mercado eléctrico español y sus componentes junto con un análisis de los cambios regulatorios más significativos durante el periodo muestral. A partir de allí, se analiza la muestra a través de los estadísticos descriptivos principales. Luego se presenta un modelo general que es analizado a partir de los resultados empíricos principales obtenidos con su estimación. Finalmente, se realizan ajustes al mismo para obtener un modelo simplificado que se ajuste mejor a lo que se quiere conseguir, que es analizar la evolución de los precios de la electricidad. Los resultados del ajuste arrojan que los precios horarios dependen en su mayor parte de los precios de las horas anteriores. También que el modelo recoge muy bien la estacionalidad mensual y horaria que presenta la muestra. Por otro lado, características de la serie de precios como son la volatilidad y los saltos no quedan bien recogidos por el modelo, lo que lleva a plantearse la búsqueda de modelos alternativos.

A uniform phase representation for the harmonic model in speech synthesis applications

Feature-based vocoders, e.g., STRAIGHT, offer a way to manipulate the perceived characteristics of the speech signal in speech transformation and synthesis. For the harmonic model, which provide excellent perceived quality, features for the amplitude parameters already exist (e.g., Line Spectral Frequencies (LSF), Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC)). However, because of the wrapping of the phase parameters, phase features are more difficult to design. To randomize the phase of the harmonic model during synthesis, a voicing feature is commonly used, which distinguishes voiced and unvoiced segments. However, voice production allows smooth transitions between voiced/unvoiced states which makes voicing segmentation sometimes tricky to estimate. In this article, two-phase features are suggested to represent the phase of the harmonic model in a uniform way, without voicing decision. The synthesis quality of the resulting vocoder has been evaluated, using subjective listening tests, in the context of resynthesis, pitch scaling, and Hidden Markov Model (HMM)-based synthesis. The experiments show that the suggested signal model is comparable to STRAIGHT or even better in some scenarios. They also reveal some limitations of the harmonic framework itself in the case of high fundamental frequencies.

On the Dynamics of the Adenylate Energy System: Homeorhesis vs Homeostasis

Biochemical energy is the fundamental element that maintains both the adequate turnover of the biomolecular structures and the functional metabolic viability of unicellular organisms. The levels of ATP, ADP and AMP reflect roughly the energetic status of the cell, and a precise ratio relating them was proposed by Atkinson as the adenylate energy charge (AEC). Under growth-phase conditions, cells maintain the AEC within narrow physiological values, despite extremely large fluctuations in the adenine nucleotides concentration. Intensive experimental studies have shown that these AEC values are preserved in a wide variety of organisms, both eukaryotes and prokaryotes. Here, to understand some of the functional elements involved in the cellular energy status, we present a computational model conformed by some key essential parts of the adenylate energy system. Specifically, we have considered (I) the main synthesis process of ATP from ADP, (II) the main catalyzed phosphotransfer reaction for interconversion of ATP, ADP and AMP, (III) the enzymatic hydrolysis of ATP yielding ADP, and (IV) the enzymatic hydrolysis of ATP providing AMP. This leads to a dynamic metabolic model (with the form of a delayed differential system) in which the enzymatic rate equations and all the physiological kinetic parameters have been explicitly considered and experimentally tested in vitro. Our central hypothesis is that cells are characterized by changing energy dynamics (homeorhesis). The results show that the AEC presents stable transitions between steady states and periodic oscillations and, in agreement with experimental data these oscillations range within the narrow AEC window. Furthermore, the model shows sustained oscillations in the Gibbs free energy and in the total nucleotide pool. The present study provides a step forward towards the understanding of the fundamental principles and quantitative laws governing the adenylate energy system, which is a fundamental element for unveiling the dynamics of cellular life.

Análisis de tendencias de temperaturas extremas (mínimas y máximas diarias) y eventos extremos (olas de frío y de calor) en la Cornisa Cantábrica (1924-2014).

[ES]En este trabajo se han analizado las tendencias de las temperaturas extremas y los eventos extremos en la Cornisa Cantábrica a partir de los registros diarios de catorce observatorios de la base de datos NCDC-GSOD (1973-2014) y cuatro observatorios centenarios también situados en esta región de ECA&D (1928-2014). Para ello, se han calculado los índices climáticos desarrollados por el ETCCDMI y se ha cuantificado la significación de las tendencias mediante el test de Mann-Kendall. Se ha observado un ascenso de las temperaturas extremas y eventos extremos en la mayoría de las estaciones, siendo el aumento más acusado a lo largo de los últimos cuarenta años

The impact of economic crises on social inequalities in health: what do we know so far?

Since 2008, Western countries are going through a deep economic crisis whose health impacts seem to be fundamentally counter-cyclical: when economic conditions worsen, so does health, and mortality tends to rise. While a growing number of studies have presented evidence on the effect of crises on the average population health, a largely neglected aspect of research is the impact of crises and the related political responses on social inequalities in health, even if the negative consequences of the crises are primarily borne by the most disadvantaged populations. This commentary will reflect on the results of the studies that have analyzed the effect of economic crises on social inequalities in health up to 2013. With some exceptions, the studies show an increase in health inequalities during crises, especially during the Southeast Asian and Japanese crises and the Soviet Union crisis, although it is not always evident for both sexes or all health or socioeconomic variables. In the Nordic countries during the nineties, a clear worsening of health equity did not occur. Results about the impacts of the current economic recession on health equity are still inconsistent. Some of the factors that could explain this variability in results are the role of welfare state policies, the diversity of time periods used in the analyses, the heterogeneity of socioeconomic and health variables considered, the changes in the socioeconomic profile of the groups under comparison in times of crises, and the type of measures used to analyze the magnitude of social inequalities in health. Social epidemiology should further collaborate with other disciplines to help produce more accurate and useful evidence about the relationship between crises and health equity.

The Carpathian range represents a weak genetic barrier in South-East Europe

Background: In the present study we have assessed whether the Carpathian Mountains represent a genetic barrier in East Europe. Therefore, we have analyzed the mtDNA of 128 native individuals of Romania: 62 of them from the North of Romania, and 66 from South Romania. Results: We have analyzed their mtDNA variability in the context of other European and Near Eastern populations through multivariate analyses. The results show that regarding the mtDNA haplogroup and haplotype distributions the Romanian groups living outside the Carpathian range (South Romania) displayed some degree of genetic differentiation compared to those living within the Carpahian range (North Romania). Conclusion: The main differentiation between the mtDNA variability of the groups from North and South Romania can be attributed to the demographic movements from East to West (prehistoric or historic) that differently affected in these regions, suggesting that the Carpathian mountain range represents a weak genetic barrier in South-East Europe.

Energy demands of diverse spiking cells from the neocortex, hippocampus, and thalamus

It has long been known that neurons in the brain are not physiologically homogeneous. In response to current stimulus, they can fire several distinct patterns of action potentials that are associated with different physiological classes ranging from regular-spiking cells, fast-spiking cells, intrinsically bursting cells, and low-threshold cells. In this work we show that the high degree of variability in firing characteristics of action potentials among these cells is accompanied with a significant variability in the energy demands required to restore the concentration gradients after an action potential. The values of the metabolic energy were calculated for a wide range of cell temperatures and stimulus intensities following two different approaches. The first one is based on the amount of Na+ load crossing the membrane during a single action potential, while the second one focuses on the electrochemical energy functions deduced from the dynamics of the computational neuron models. The results show that the thalamocortical relay neuron is the most energy-efficient cell consuming between 7 and 18 nJ/cm(2) for each spike generated, while both the regular and fast spiking cells from somatosensory cortex and the intrinsically-bursting cell from a cat visual cortex are the least energy-efficient, and can consume up to 100 nJ/cm(2) per spike. The lowest values of these energy demands were achieved at higher temperatures and high external stimuli.