An Alternative View of the US Price-Dividend Ratio Dynamics

As a necessary condition for the validity of the present value model, the price-dividend ratio must be stationary. However, significant market episodes seem to provide evidence of prices significantly drifting apart from dividends while other episodes show prices anchoring back to dividends. This paper investigates the stationarity of this ratio in the context of a Markov- switching model à la Hamilton (1989) where an asymmetric speed of adjustment towards a unique attractor is introduced. A three-regime model displays the best regime identification and reveals that the first part of the 90’s boom (1985-1995) and the post-war period are characterized by a stationary state featuring a slow reverting process to a relatively high attractor. Interestingly, the latter part of the 90’s boom (1996-2000), characterized by a growing price-dividend ratio, is entirely attributed to a stationary regime featuring a highly reverting process to the attractor. Finally, the post-Lehman Brothers episode of the subprime crisis can be classified into a temporary nonstationary regime.

Sormena bost urtko gelan. Musika, mugimendua eta jolasa.

Ez da arraroa, egungo eskolan, nolabaiteko aukera eza aurkitzea Haur Hezkuntzako haurraren sormena garatzeko. Aukera eza honi erantzuna emateko asmoz sortu da proiektu hau. Hiru bitarteko nagusi uztartzea proposatzen da: alde batetik, musika, sormenaren garapenerako aukera anitz eskaintzen dituelako; bestetik, mugimendua, haurraren garapenen fisiko eta kognitiboan berebiziko garrantzia duen funtzioa; eta, azkenik, jolasa elementu integratzaile bezala, gizakiok haurtzaroan dugun oinarrizko jarduera. Ondoren proposatzen diren jolasak zehazki sortuak, aukeratuak eta moldatuak izan dira sormena era ludikoan garatzeko. Barakaldoko Alkartu Ikastola Publikoan praktikan jarri eta gero, esan dezakegu haurrek ia mugarik gabeko sormena garatu dezaketela, irakasleak bitarteko egokiak eskura jartzen badizkie.

Application of Entropy and Fractal Dimension Analyses to the Pattern Recognition of Contaminated Fish Responses in Aquaculture

The objective of the work was to develop a non-invasive methodology for image acquisition, processing and nonlinear trajectory analysis of the collective fish response to a stochastic event. Object detection and motion estimation were performed by an optical flow algorithm in order to detect moving fish and simultaneously eliminate background, noise and artifacts. The Entropy and the Fractal Dimension (FD) of the trajectory followed by the centroids of the groups of fish were calculated using Shannon and permutation Entropy and the Katz, Higuchi and Katz-Castiglioni's FD algorithms respectively. The methodology was tested on three case groups of European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax), two of which were similar (C1 control and C2 tagged fish) and very different from the third (C3, tagged fish submerged in methylmercury contaminated water). The results indicate that Shannon entropy and Katz-Castiglioni were the most sensitive algorithms and proved to be promising tools for the non-invasive identification and quantification of differences in fish responses. In conclusion, we believe that this methodology has the potential to be embedded in online/real time architecture for contaminant monitoring programs in the aquaculture industry.

An enactive and dynamical systems theory account of dyadic relationships

Many social relationships are a locus of struggle and suffering, either at the individual or interactional level. In this paper we explore why this is the case and suggest a modeling approach for dyadic interactions and the well-being of the participants. To this end we bring together an enactive approach to self with dynamical systems theory. Our basic assumption is that the quality of any social interaction or relationship fundamentally depends on the nature and constitution of the individuals engaged in these interactions. From an enactive perspective the self is conceived as an embodied and socially enacted autonomous system striving to maintain an identity. This striving involves a basic two-fold goal: the ability to exist as an individual in one's own right, while also being open to and affected by others. In terms of dynamical systems theory one can thus consider the individual self as a self-other organized system represented by a phase space spanned by the dimensions of distinction and participation, where attractors can be defined. Based on two everyday examples of dyadic relationship we propose a simple model of relationship dynamics, in which struggle or well-being in the dyad is analyzed in terms of movements of dyadic states that are in tension or in harmony with individually developed attractors. Our model predicts that relationships can be sustained when the dyad develops a new joint attractor toward which dyadic states tend to move, and well-being when this attractor is in balance with the individuals' attractors. We outline how this can inspire research on psychotherapy. The psychotherapy process itself provides a setting that supports clients to become aware how they fare with regards to the two-fold norm of distinction and participation and develop, through active engagement between client (or couple) and therapist, strategies to co-negotiate their self-organization.