Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

A Non-Parametric Dimension Test of the Term Structure

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 3, article 6.

Tracking the evolution of waste recycling research using overlay maps of science

Tracking the evolution of research in waste recycling science (WRS) can be valuable for environmental agencies, as well as for recycling businesses. Maps of science are visual, easily readable representations of the cognitive structure of a branch of science, a particular area of research or the global spectrum of scientific production. They are generally built upon evidence collected from reliable sources of information, such as patent and scientific publication databases. This study uses the methodology developed by Rafols et al. (2010) to make a “double overlay map” of WRS upon a basemap reflecting the cognitive structure of all journal-published science, for the years 2005 and 2010. The analysis has taken into account the cognitive areas where WRS articles are published and the areas from where it takes its intellectual nourishing, paying special attention to the growing trends of the key areas. Interpretation of results lead to the conclusion that extraction of energy from waste will probably be an important research topic in the future, along with developments in general chemistry and chemical engineering oriented to the recovery of valuable materials from waste. Agricultural and material sciences, together with the combined economics, politics and geography field, are areas with which WRS shows a relevant and ever increasing cognitive relationship.

Semi-automatic generation of learning domain modules for technology supported learning systems

In a time when Technology Supported Learning Systems are being widely used, there is a lack of tools that allows their development in an automatic or semi-automatic way. Technology Supported Learning Systems require an appropriate Domain Module, ie. the pedagogical representation of the domain to be mastered, in order to be effective. However, content authoring is a time and effort consuming task, therefore, efforts in automatising the Domain Module acquisition are necessary.Traditionally, textbooks have been used as the main mechanism to maintain and transmit the knowledge of a certain subject or domain. Textbooks have been authored by domain experts who have organised the contents in a means that facilitate understanding and learning, considering pedagogical issues.Given that textbooks are appropriate sources of information, they can be used to facilitate the development of the Domain Module allowing the identification of the topics to be mastered and the pedagogical relationships among them, as well as the extraction of Learning Objects, ie. meaningful fragments of the textbook with educational purpose.Consequently, in this work DOM-Sortze, a framework for the semi-automatic construction of Domain Modules from electronic textbooks, has been developed. DOM-Sortze uses NLP techniques, heuristic reasoning and ontologies to fulfill its work. DOM-Sortze has been designed and developed with the aim of automatising the development of the Domain Module, regardless of the subject, promoting the knowledge reuse and facilitating the collaboration of the users during the process.

Determinants of self-reported smoking and misclassification during pregnancy, and analysis of optimal cut-off points for urinary cotinine: a cross-sectional study

10 p.

Effects of 12 weeks muscle hipetrophy training program in a young male athlete: stydy case

PURPOSE: The main goals of the present study were: 1) to review some recommendations about how to increase lean body mass; 2) to analyse whether following scientific sources of current recommendations, visible changes can be shown or not in a participant (body composition, strength and blood analyses). METHODS: One male athlete completed 12 weeks of resistance training program and following a diet protocol. Some test were determined such as, strength 6RM, blood analyses, skindfold measurements, body perimeters and impedance test. Body composition measurements were taken 3 times during the program (before-T1, after 6 weeks of intervention period-T2 and at the end of the program-T3). On the other hand, strength tests and blood analyses were performed twice (before and after the program). RESULTS: Strength was increased in general; blood analyses showed that Creatine kinase was increased a 104% and Triglycerides level was decreased a 22.5%; in the impedance test, body mass (1.6%), lean body mass (3.5%) and Body mass index (1.7%) were increased, whereas fat mass was decreased (15.5%); relaxed and contracted biceps perimeters were also increased. CONCLUSION: A muscle hypertrophy training program mixed with an appropriate diet during 12 weeks leads to interesting adaptations related to increase in body weight, lean body mass, biceps perimeters, strength and creatine kinase levels, and a decrease in fat mass.

Optimal Abandonment of Coal-Fired Stations in the EU

36 p.