Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities

Published also as: Documento de Trabajo Banco de España 0504/2005.

Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Delimitación del Marketing con Causa o Marketing Social Corporativo mediante el análisis de empresas que realizan acciones de responsabilidad social

Extracto del trabajo de investigación presentado en el programa de doctorado, que además está incluido en el formato de artículo en los anales (proceedings) de las II Jornadas Internacionales de Marketing Público y No Lucrativo (Zaragoza, abril de 2003).

Una imagen vale más que mil palabras: efectos de las advertencias sanitarias visuales en el descenso del consumo de tabaco: un estudio desde la perspectiva del marketing social

[ES] El tabaco está reconocido hoy día como un factor de riesgo muy importante en multitud de enfermedades, representando un grave riesgo para la salud pública. Entre las medidas previstas por la Organización Mundial de la Salud y por la Comisión Europea está la utilización de advertencias sanitarias sobre los efectos del tabaco en las personas. En España actualmente esas advertencias contienen solo texto.

Una iniciativa social en la recuperación textil que genera empleo: Berohi S. Coop.

[ES] El incremento del consumo de ropa provoca que año a año aumente el volumen de ropa desechada, y con éste, la conciencia sobre la necesidad de reutilizar dicho recurso. Berohi S. Coop. es una de las empresas dedicadas a la recuperación y reciclaje del textil usado, con origen en Bizkaia. La concepción inicial y desarrollo del proyecto empresarial Berohi S. Coop. constituyen el eje central del caso.

The interactive brain hypothesis

Enactive approaches foreground the role of interpersonal interaction in explanations of social understanding. This motivates, in combination with a recent interest in neuroscientific studies involving actual interactions, the question of how interactive processes relate to neural mechanisms involved in social understanding. We introduce the Interactive Brain Hypothesis (IBH) in order to help map the spectrum of possible relations between social interaction and neural processes. The hypothesis states that interactive experience and skills play enabling roles in both the development and current function of social brain mechanisms, even in cases where social understanding happens in the absence of immediate interaction. We examine the plausibility of this hypothesis against developmental and neurobiological evidence and contrast it with the widespread assumption that mindreading is crucial to all social cognition. We describe the elements of social interaction that bear most directly on this hypothesis and discuss the empirical possibilities open to social neuroscience. We propose that the link between coordination dynamics and social understanding can be best grasped by studying transitions between states of coordination. These transitions form part of the self-organization of interaction processes that characterize the dynamics of social engagement. The patterns and synergies of this self-organization help explain how individuals understand each other. Various possibilities for role-taking emerge during interaction, determining a spectrum of participation. This view contrasts sharply with the observational stance that has guided research in social neuroscience until recently. We also introduce the concept of readiness to interact to describe the practices and dispositions that are summoned in situations of social significance (even if not interactive). This latter idea links interactive factors to more classical observational scenarios.

Del miedo a la obesidad a la obsesión por la delgadez; actitudes y dieta

Este trabajo se encuentra bajo la licencia Creative Commons Attribution 3.0.

Breaking the 400 ppm barrier: Physical and Social implications of the recent CO2 rise

6 p.

Realidad y retos de la protección social en Euskadi

El nº 81 de Ecomiaz lleva el título de: Estado de bienestar y gobierno multinivel

Social, economic, and health impact of the respiratory syncytial virus: a systematic search

Background: Bronchiolitis caused by the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and its related complications are common in infants born prematurely, with severe congenital heart disease, or bronchopulmonary dysplasia, as well as in immunosuppressed infants. There is a rich literature on the different aspects of RSV infection with a focus, for the most part, on specific risk populations. However, there is a need for a systematic global analysis of the impact of RSV infection in terms of use of resources and health impact on both children and adults. With this aim, we performed a systematic search of scientific evidence on the social, economic, and health impact of RSV infection. Methods: A systematic search of the following databases was performed: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Spanish Medical Index, MEDES-MEDicina in Spanish, Cochrane Plus Library, and Google without time limits. We selected 421 abstracts based on the 6,598 articles identified. From these abstracts, 4 RSV experts selected the most relevant articles. They selected 65 articles. After reading the full articles, 23 of their references were also selected. Finally, one more article found through a literature information alert system was included. Results: The information collected was summarized and organized into the following topics: 1. Impact on health (infections and respiratory complications, mid-to long-term lung function decline, recurrent wheezing, asthma, other complications such as otitis and rhino-conjunctivitis, and mortality; 2. Impact on resources (visits to primary care and specialists offices, emergency room visits, hospital admissions, ICU admissions, diagnostic tests, and treatments); 3. Impact on costs (direct and indirect costs); 4. Impact on quality of life; and 5. Strategies to reduce the impact (interventions on social and hygienic factors and prophylactic treatments). Conclusions: We concluded that 1. The health impact of RSV infection is relevant and goes beyond the acute episode phase; 2. The health impact of RSV infection on children is much better documented than the impact on adults; 3. Further research is needed on mid-and long-term impact of RSV infection on the adult population, especially those at high-risk; 4. There is a need for interventions aimed at reducing the impact of RSV infection by targeting health education, information, and prophylaxis in high-risk populations.

The body social: an enactive approach to the self

This paper takes a new look at an old question: what is the human self? It offers a proposal for theorizing the self from an enactive perspective as an autonomous system that is constituted through interpersonal relations. It addresses a prevalent issue in the philosophy of cognitive science: the body-social problem. Embodied and social approaches to cognitive identity are in mutual tension. On the one hand, embodied cognitive science risks a new form of methodological individualism, implying a dichotomy not between the outside world of objects and the brain-bound individual but rather between body-bound individuals and the outside social world. On the other hand, approaches that emphasize the constitutive relevance of social interaction processes for cognitive identity run the risk of losing the individual in the interaction dynamics and of downplaying the role of embodiment. This paper adopts a middle way and outlines an enactive approach to individuation that is neither individualistic nor disembodied but integrates both approaches. Elaborating on Jonas' notion of needful freedom it outlines an enactive proposal to understanding the self as co-generated in interactions and relations with others. I argue that the human self is a social existence that is organized in terms of a back and forth between social distinction and participation processes. On this view, the body, rather than being identical with the social self, becomes its mediator

Información del Capital Humano: la generación de intangibles y la responsabilidad social

[ES] Los recursos de naturaleza intangible se han convertido en los bienes más importantes que poseen las empresas para generar riqueza de manera sostenible, en concreto el Capital Humano. Sin embargo, el éxito y supervivencia de la empresa se encuentra sometida a la aprobación de sus grupos de interés (stakeholders). Por ello, las empresas deben adoptar medidas para garantizar que sus actuaciones sean percibidas por sus stakeholders como legítimas; una manera para legitimarse es mediante el suministro de información voluntaria. Por tanto, bajo el marco de la Teoría de la Legitimidad y de los Stakeholders, nuestro objetivo es analizar cómo las empresas españolas están informando de manera voluntaria sobre su Capital Humano en los informes anuales, desde una doble perspectiva informativa: la generación de intangibles (conocimiento) y la responsabilidad social. Así, usando la metodología del análisis de contenido, la evidencia empírica muestra que las empresas españolas suministran escasa información acerca de su Capital Humano, siendo los temas relacionados con la formación y el desarrollo de los empleados los más divulgados. No obstante, y con respecto a la responsabilidad social, hay que destacar la tendencia alcista por parte de las empresas a suministrar información relativa a la política de igualdad y diversidad, la prevención de riesgos laborales y las relaciones entre empleadores y empleados.

Cybervictimization by cyberbullying: children at risk and children as risk

Cybercrime in general derives from a series of events and factors that converge to foster this phenomenon. After an introduction, the reader will find four chapters. The first one provides a contextualization with background information. The changes in socioeconomic life and the accessibility and reach of the new technologies are assessed. The focus is set on the use of the internet and its far-reaching implications including the responses of national and international institutions. Nowadays, the internet is the window to current affairs whereby the social world is projected, and this idea becomes clear throughout the text. The second chapter deals with factors of patterns of cyberbullying. The third one is concentrated on the impact of cyberbullying and the concept of harm. The final one tackles the possibilities of recovery and resilience. All this allows us to draw some general conclusions. The work ends with a list of references and several annexes that help to understand in depth some of the points discussed throughout the text.