Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto

Coal-fired power plants may enjoy a significant advantage relative to gas plants in terms of cheaper fuel cost. Still, this advantage may erode or even turn into disadvantage depending on CO2 emission allowance price. This price will presumably rise in both the Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012) and the first post-Kyoto years. Thus, in a carbon-constrained environment, coal plants face financial risks arising in their profit margins, which in turn hinge on their so-called "clean dark spread". These risks are further reinforced when the price of the output electricity is determined by natural gas-fired plants' marginal costs, which differ from coal plants' costs. We aim to assess the risks in coal plants' margins. We adopt parameter values estimated from empirical data. These in turn are derived from natural gas and electricity markets alongside the EU ETS market where emission allowances are traded. Monte Carlo simulation allows to compute the expected value and risk profile of coal-based electricity generation. We focus on the clean dark spread in both time periods under different future scenarios in the allowance market. Specifically, bottom 5% and 10% percentiles are derived. According to our results, certain future paths of the allowance price may impose significant risks on the clean dark spread obtained by coal plants.

The long road of climate negotiations: From Kyoto to Paris stopping over in Doha

4 p.

Long Term Dynamics in CO2 Allowance Prices and Carbon Capture Investments

In this paper we analyse the behaviour of the EU market for CO2 emission allowances; specifically, we focus on the contracts maturing in the Kyoto Protocol's second period of application (2008 to 2012). We calibrate the underlying parameters for the allowance price in the long run and we also calibrate those from the Spanish wholesale electricity market. This information is then used to assess the option to install a carbon capture and storage (CCS) unit in a coal-fired power plant. We use a two-dimensional binomial lattice where costs and profits are valued and the optimal investment time is determined. In other words, we study the trigger allowance prices above which it is optimal to install the capture unit immediately. We further analyse the impact of several variables on the critical prices, among them allowance price volatility and a hypothetical government subsidy. We conclude that, at current permit prices, from a financial point of view, immediate installation does not seem justified. This need not be the case, though, if carbon market parameters change dramatically and/or a specific policy to promote these units is adopted.

The Cancun Climate Summit: a Moderate Success

4 p.

The Role of Regions in Climate Change Policy

28 p.

Climate Change and Its Socioeconomic Importance

25 p.

Certificación energética de la vivienda de Iker Elizundia Lopez y proyecto de posibles mejoras

[ES]Teniendo en cuenta la actual normativa europea y española, que tiene como objetivo principal el cumplimiento de la reducción de emisiones que se recoge en el protocolo de Kyoto y en el plan 20/20/20, en el siguiente trabajo se ha realizado la certificación energética de la vivienda de Iker Elizundia Lopez, que ha resultado en una calificación de F. Además, se ha propuesto una serie de mejoras con objeto de conseguir una calificación de D, mínimo legal para edificios de nueva construcción. Dichas mejoras, suponen una reducción del 63% de las emisiones, así como un considerable ahorro económico.

Aporte adicional de energía renovable geotérmica a instalación con cogeneración en hospital existente.

[ES]Este proyecto tiene como objetivo apoyar a la generación de energía por cogeneración mediante una fuente de energía renovable. Se pretende plantear una solución que satisfaga parte de las necesidades básicas del Hospital Universitario de Álava, en su sede del Hospital de Santiago, de una forma económicamente rentable. Este proyecto se enmarca dentro de los esfuerzos en la promoción de energías renovables que comenzaron con el protocolo Kioto, al que le siguieron los objetivos Europa 20/20/20. Se realizará un acercamiento a la utilización de la energía renovable geotérmica como fuente de energía que disminuye el impacto ambiental. El edificio hospitalario considerado ya cuenta con un sistema de generación energética con cogeneración, considerada dentro del régimen especial, por la utilización de energía residual para procesos que de otra manera hubieran requerido consumo de combustible. Se plantearán diferentes alternativas para la generación de energía térmica con geotermia, que al ser de origen renovable, es una fuente de energía de combustibles no fósiles, y se demostraran sus beneficios analizando cómo mejora la huella de carbono del hospital con la propuesta. Finalmente, para valorar si se trata de un proyecto viable se planteará el estudio económico analizando el presupuesto y análisis de rentabilidad.

Analytical efficiency evaluation of a network mobility management protocol for Intelligent Transportation Systems

One of the major concerns in an Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) scenario, such as that which may be found on a long-distance train service, is the provision of efficient communication services, satisfying users' expectations, and fulfilling even highly demanding application requirements, such as safety-oriented services. In an ITS scenario, it is common to have a significant amount of onboard devices that comprise a cluster of nodes (a mobile network) that demand connectivity to the outside networks. This demand has to be satisfied without service disruption. Consequently, the mobility of the mobile network has to be managed. Due to the nature of mobile networks, efficient and lightweight protocols are desired in the ITS context to ensure adequate service performance. However, the security is also a key factor in this scenario. Since the management of the mobility is essential for providing communications, the protocol for managing this mobility has to be protected. Furthermore, there are safety-oriented services in this scenario, so user application data should also be protected. Nevertheless, providing security is expensive in terms of efficiency. Based on this considerations, we have developed a solution for managing the network mobility for ITS scenarios: the NeMHIP protocol. This approach provides a secure management of network mobility in an efficient manner. In this article, we present this protocol and the strategy developed to maintain its security and efficiency in satisfactory levels. We also present the developed analytical models to analyze quantitatively the efficiency of the protocol. More specifically, we have developed models for assessing it in terms of signaling cost, which demonstrates that NeMHIP generates up to 73.47% less signaling compared to other relevant approaches. Therefore, the results obtained demonstrate that NeMHIP is the most efficient and secure solution for providing communications in mobile network scenarios such as in an ITS context.

Diseño y desarrollo de una solución de resistant communications al protocolo Host Identity Protocol

[ES]Este Trabajo de Fin de Grado consiste en diseñar y desarrollar una solución de resilient communications para su uso en entornos de movilidad, en concreto, en entornos vehiculares. Se diseñara una solución que consiste en añadir soporte de múltiples vías de comunicación entre dos extremos para el protocolo de movilidad HIP. Este trabajo consiste en buscar una solución de resilient communications, ya que buscamos como objetivo principal aumentar la disponibilidad del sistema de comunicaciones, es decir, aumentar aspectos tales como la tolerancia a fallos y contra ataques de seguridad, concretamente contra ataques contra la disponibilidad.

Integrated treatment of first episode psychosis with online training (e-learning): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: The integrated treatment of first episode psychosis has been shown to improve functionality and negative symptoms in previous studies. In this paper, we describe a study of integrated treatment (individual psychoeducation complementary to pharmacotherapy) versus treatment as usual, comparing results at baseline with those at 6-month re-assessment (at the end of the study) for these patients, and online training of professionals to provide this complementary treatment, with the following objectives: 1) to compare the efficacy of individual psychoeducation as add-on treatment versus treatment as usual in improving psychotic and mood symptoms; 2) to compare adherence to medication, functioning, insight, social response, quality of life, and brain-derived neurotrophic factor, between both groups; and 3) to analyse the efficacy of online training of psychotherapists. Methods/design: This is a single-blind randomised clinical trial including patients with first episode psychosis from hospitals across Spain, randomly assigned to either a control group with pharmacotherapy and regular sessions with their psychiatrist (treatment as usual) or an intervention group with integrated care including treatment as usual plus a psychoeducational intervention (14 sessions). Training for professionals involved at each participating centre was provided by the coordinating centre (University Hospital of Alava) through video conferences. Patients are evaluated with an extensive battery of tests assessing clinical and sociodemographic characteristics (Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale, Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression, Scale to Assess Unawareness of Mental Disorders, Strauss and Carpenter Prognostic Scale, Global Assessment of Functioning Scale, Morisky Green Adherence Scale, Functioning Assessment Short Test, World Health Organization Quality of Life instrument WHOQOL-BREF (an abbreviated version of the WHOQOL-100), and EuroQoL questionnaire), and brain-derived neurotrophic factor levels are measured in peripheral blood at baseline and at 6 months. The statistical analysis, including bivariate analysis, linear and logistic regression models, will be performed using SPSS. Discussion: This is an innovative study that includes the assessment of an integrated intervention for patients with first episode psychosis provided by professionals who are trained online, potentially making it possible to offer the intervention to more patients.

Efficacy of a cognitive and behavioural psychotherapy applied by primary care psychologists in patients with mixed anxiety-depressive disorder: a research protocol

Background: In contrast with the recommendations of clinical practice guidelines, the most common treatment for anxiety and depressive disorders in primary care is pharmacological. The aim of this study is to assess the efficacy of a cognitive-behavioural psychological intervention, delivered by primary care psychologists in patients with mixed anxiety-depressive disorder compared to usual care. Methods/Design: This is an open-label, multicentre, randomized, and controlled study with two parallel groups. A random sample of 246 patients will be recruited with mild-to-moderate mixed anxiety-depressive disorder, from the target population on the lists of 41 primary care doctors. Patients will be randomly assigned to the intervention group, who will receive standardised cognitive-behavioural therapy delivered by psychologists together with usual care, or to a control group, who will receive usual care alone. The cognitive-behavioural therapy intervention is composed of eight individual 60-minute face-to face sessions conducted in eight consecutive weeks. A follow-up session will be conducted over the telephone, for reinforcement or referral as appropriate, 6 months after the intervention, as required. The primary outcome variable will be the change in scores on the Short Form-36 General Health Survey. We will also measure the change in the frequency and intensity of anxiety symptoms (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory) and depression (Beck Depression Inventory) at baseline, and 3, 6 and 12 months later. Additionally, we will collect information on the use of drugs and health care services. Discussion: The aim of this study is to assess the efficacy of a primary care-based cognitive-behavioural psychological intervention in patients with mixed anxiety-depressive disorder. The international scientific evidence has demonstrated the need for psychologists in primary care. However, given the differences between health policies and health services, it is important to test the effect of these psychological interventions in our geographical setting.