An austerity-driven energy reform

In July 2013, the government approved a major overhaul of the Spanish electricity sector to correct existing imbalances that have led to an exponential increase of regulated electricity costs and a huge tariff deficit. The reform addresses the problem of financial sustainability of the sector, severely affected by weak demand and overcapacity. Previous regulation introduced in 2012 and early 2013, also aimed at restoring financial stability of the sector, failed to correct the tariff shortfall and new regulatory measures were needed to reduce the 4.5 billion euros forecasted deficit for 2013. The frequent change of the rules of the game in the sector has created regulatory uncertainty, more so as it is not clear that the present reform will be sufficient to eliminate the deficit. Moreover, the government has left the door open to new regulation that would deal with the price formation system. In general, short run financial criteria have prevailed, while efficiency principles and a long run perspective have little weight in the reform.

SEAT S.A.ren analisi ekonomiko-finantzarioa

Lan honetan lehenik eta behin automobilgintza sektorearen analisi orokor bat burutzen da,eta ondoren, SEAT S.A enpresaren analisi ekonomiko-finantzariora joko da, enpresaren hazkundea, egonkortasun finantzarioa, likidezia, errentagarritasuna eta arriskua analizatuko dira, batik bat.

Fiscal Policy and Economic Stability: Does PIGS stand for Procyclicality In Government Spending?

The Financial Crisis has hit particularly hard countries like Ireland or Spain. Procyclical fiscal policy has contributed to a boom-bust cycle that undermined fiscal positions and deepened current account deficits during the boom. We set up an RBC model of a small open economy, following Mendoza (1991), and introduce the effect of fiscal policy decisions that change over the cycle. We calibrate the model on data for Ireland, and simulate the effect of different spending policies in response to supply shocks. Procyclical fiscal policy distorts intertemporal allocation decisions. Temporary spending boosts in booms spur investment, and hence the need for external finance, and so generates very volatile cycles in investment and the current account. This economic instability is also harmful for the steady state level of output. Our model is able to replicate the relation between the degree of cyclicality of fiscal policy, and the volatility of consumption, investment and the current account observed in OECD countries.

The Stability of the Roommate Problem Revisited

The lack of stability in some matching problems suggests that alternative solution concepts to the core might be applied to find predictable matchings. We propose the absorbing sets as a solution for the class of roommate problems with strict preferences. This solution, which always exists, either gives the matchings in the core or predicts some other matchings when the core is empty. Furthermore, it satisfies an interesting property of outer stability. We also characterize the absorbing sets, determine their number and, in case of multiplicity, we find that they all share a similar structure.

An Approach to the stability of international environmental agreements: the absorbing sets solution

We study international environmental negotiations when agreements between countries can not be binding. A problem with this kind of negotiations is that countries have incentives for free-riding from such agreements. We develope a notion of equilibrium based on the assumption that countries can create and dissolve agreements in their seeking of a larger welfare. This approach leads to a larger degree of cooperation compared to models based on the internal-external stability approach.

Stability of the factorial structure of metabolic syndrome from childhood to adolescence : a 6-year follow-up study

Background: Metabolic syndrome (MS) is a clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors that is considered a predictor of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and mortality. There is no consistent evidence on whether the MS construct works in the same way in different populations and at different stages in life. Methods: We used confirmatory factor analysis to examine if a single-factor-model including waist circumference, triglycerides/HDL-c, insulin and mean arterial pressure underlies metabolic syndrome from the childhood to adolescence in a 6-years follow-up study in 174 Swedish and 460 Estonian children aged 9 years at baseline. Indeed, we analyze the tracking of a previously validated MS index over this 6-years period. Results: The estimates of goodness-of-fit for the single-factor-model underlying MS were acceptable both in children and adolescents. The construct stability of a new model including the differences from baseline to the end of the follow-up in the components of the proposed model displayed good fit indexes for the change, supporting the hypothesis of a single factor underlying MS component trends. Conclusions: A single-factor-model underlying MS is stable across the puberty in both Estonian and Swedish young people. The MS index tracks acceptably from childhood to adolescence.

Resale in Auctions with Financial Constraints

This paper analyzes auctions where bidders face nancial constraints that may force them to resell part of the property of the good (or subcontract part of a project) at a resale market. First we show that the ine¢ cient speculative equilibria of second- price auctions (Garratt and Tröger, 2006) generalizes to situations with partial resale where only the high value bidder is nancially constrained. However, when all players face nancial constraints the ine¢ cient speculative equilibria disappear. Therefore, for auctioning big facilities or contracts where all bidders are nancially constrained and there is a resale market, the second price auction remains a simple and appropriate mechanism to achieve an e¢ cient allocation.

Stability and Limit Oscillations of a Control Event-Based Sampling Criterion

This paper investigates the presence of limit oscillations in an adaptive sampling system. The basic sampling criterion operates in the sense that each next sampling occurs when the absolute difference of the signal amplitude with respect to its currently sampled signal equalizes a prescribed threshold amplitude. The sampling criterion is extended involving a prescribed set of amplitudes. The limit oscillations might be interpreted through the equivalence of the adaptive sampling and hold device with a nonlinear one consisting of a relay with multiple hysteresis whose parameterization is, in general, dependent on the initial conditions of the dynamic system. The performed study is performed on the time domain.

Stability of Switched Feedback Time-Varying Dynamic Systems Based on the Properties of the Gap Metric for Operators

The stabilization of dynamic switched control systems is focused on and based on an operator-based formulation. It is assumed that the controlled object and the controller are described by sequences of closed operator pairs (L, C) on a Hilbert space H of the input and output spaces and it is related to the existence of the inverse of the resulting input-output operator being admissible and bounded. The technical mechanism addressed to get the results is the appropriate use of the fact that closed operators being sufficiently close to bounded operators, in terms of the gap metric, are also bounded. That philosophy is followed for the operators describing the input-output relations in switched feedback control systems so as to guarantee the closed-loop stabilization.

Forward-looking Pairwise Stability in Networks with Externalities

We consider cooperation situations where players have network relations. Networks evolve according to a stationary transition probability matrix and at each moment in time players receive payoffs from a stationary allocation rule. Players discount the future by a common factor. The pair formed by an allocation rule and a transition probability matrix is called a forward-looking network formation scheme if, first, the probability that a link is created is positive if the discounted, expected gains to its two participants are positive, and if, second, the probability that a link is eliminated is positive if the discounted, expected gains to at least one of its two participants are positive. The main result is the existence, for all discount factors and all value functions, of a forward-looking network formation scheme. Furthermore, we can always nd a forward-looking network formation scheme such that (i) the allocation rule is component balanced and (ii) the transition probabilities increase in the di erence in payo s for the corresponding players responsible for the transition. We use this dynamic solution concept to explore the tension between e ciency and stability.

Seasonal Stability Tests in gretl. An Application to International Tourism Data

The seasonal stability tests of Canova & Hansen (1995) (CH) provide a method complementary to that of Hylleberg et al. (1990) for testing for seasonal unit roots. But the distribution of the CH tests are unknown in small samples. We present a method to numerically compute critical values and P-values for the CH tests for any sample size and any seasonal periodicity. In fact this method is applicable to the types of seasonality which are commonly in use, but also to any other.

Linking Reduced Deforestation and a Global Carbon Market: Impacts on Costs, Financial Flows, and Technological Innovation

25 p.

Cointegration analysis of money demand in the Euro Area

The analysis of the evolution of the M3 money aggregate is an important element in the definition and implementation of monetary policy for the ECB. A well-defined and stable long run demand function is an essential requisite for M3 to be a valid monetary tool. Therefore, this paper analyzes based in cointegration techniques the existence of a long run money demand, estimating it and testing its stability for the Euro Area and for ten of its member countries. Specifically, bearing in mind the high degree of monetary instability that the current economic crisis has created in the Euro Area, we also test whether this has had a noticeable impact in the cointegration among real money demand and its determinants. The analysis gives evidence of the existence of a long run relationship when the aggregated Euro Area and six of the ten countries are considered. However, these relationships are highly instable since the outbreak of the financial crisis, leading in some cases to even rejecting cointegration. All this suggests that the ECB’s strategy of focusing in the M3 monetary aggregates could not be a convenient approach under the current circumstances

Financial Futures Markets and Their Impact on the Real Economy in Middle and Low Income Countries

This project analyses the influence of the futures market on middle and low income countries. In it, I attempt to show that investments made by large investment funds in this market, as well as by certain pension plans, bring major consequences whose effects are more evident in less developed countries. The cornerstones of the work are as follows; to attempt to see the existing relationship between the commodity futures market and its underlying assets; analysing products such as wheat, rice and corn in-depth, because these are the most basic foodstuffs at a global level; to determine how an increase in trading in these markets can affect the lives of people in the poorest countries; to analyse investor concern regarding the consequences that their investments may have. Throughout the project we will see how large speculators use production forecasting models to determine the shortage of a commodity in order to take a position in the futures market to profit from it. In addition we will see how an increase in trading in this market causes an increase in the price of the underlying asset in the spot market. As for investor concern, I can say it is negligible, but the idea of running pension plans or investment funds that follow some social criteria has been welcomed by those interviewed, which makes me think that different legislation is possible. This legislation will only come into existence if it is demanded by the people. A fact that now becomes complicated because without a minimum financial basis, they cannot even know how the large investment funds trade with hunger in the world. The day when most people understand how large speculators profit from famine will be the day to put pressure on governments to begin to put limits on speculation. This makes financial awareness necessary in order to achieve a curb in excessive speculation.

Efficiency vs. Stability in a Mixed Network Formation Model

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