Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Ability of Urografin Density Gradients to Separate Nonculturable Subpopulations of Escherichia coli

Poster presentado a 11th International Symposium on Microbial Ecology(ISME -11)celebrado en Viena del 20 al 25 de agosto de 2006

Mechanisms Responsible for the Trophic Effect of Beta-Adrenoceptors on the I-to Current Density in Type 1 Diabetic Rat Cardiomyocytes

Background/Aims: In diabetic ventricular myocytes, transient outward potassium current (I-to) amplitude is severely reduced because of the impaired catecholamine release that characterizes diabetic autonomic neuropathy. Sympathetic nervous system exhibits a trophic effect on I-to since incubation of myocytes with noradrenaline restores current amplitude via beta-adrenoceptor (beta AR) stimulation. Here, we investigate the intracellular signalling pathway though which incubation of diabetic cardiomyocytes with the beta AR agonist isoproterenol recovers I-to amplitude to normal values. Methods: Experiments were performed in ventricular myocytes isolated from streptozotocin-diabetic rats. I-to current was recorded by using the patch-clamp technique. Kv4 channel expression was determined by immunofluorescence. Protein-protein interaction was determined by coimmunoprecipitation. Results: Stimulation of beta AR activates first a G alpha s protein, adenylyl cyclase and Protein Kinase A. PKA-phosphorylated receptor then switches to the G alpha i protein. This leads to the activation of the beta AR-Kinase-1 and further receptor phosphorylation and arrestin dependent internalization. The internalized receptor-arrestin complex recruits and activates cSrc and the MAPK cascade, where Ras, c-Raf1 and finally ERK1/2 mediate the increase in Kv4.2 and Kv4.3 protein abundance in the plasma membrane. Conclusion: beta(2)AR stimulation activates a G alpha s and G alpha i protein dependent pathway where the ERK1/2 modulates the Ito current amplitude and the density of the Kv4.2 and Kv4.2 channels in the plasma membrane upon sympathetic stimulation in diabetic heart.

Downscaling of surface moisture flux and precipitation in the Ebro Valley (Spain) using analogues and analogues followed by random forests and multiple linear regression

In this paper, reanalysis fields from the ECMWF have been statistically downscaled to predict from large-scale atmospheric fields, surface moisture flux and daily precipitation at two observatories (Zaragoza and Tortosa, Ebro Valley, Spain) during the 1961-2001 period. Three types of downscaling models have been built: (i) analogues, (ii) analogues followed by random forests and (iii) analogues followed by multiple linear regression. The inputs consist of data (predictor fields) taken from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The predicted fields are precipitation and surface moisture flux as measured at the two observatories. With the aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, the ERA-40 fields have been decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions. Available daily data has been divided into two parts: a training period used to find a group of about 300 analogues to build the downscaling model (1961-1996) and a test period (19972001), where models' performance has been assessed using independent data. In the case of surface moisture flux, the models based on analogues followed by random forests do not clearly outperform those built on analogues plus multiple linear regression, while simple averages calculated from the nearest analogues found in the training period, yielded only slightly worse results. In the case of precipitation, the three types of model performed equally. These results suggest that most of the models' downscaling capabilities can be attributed to the analogues-calculation stage.

Increase in the density of resting microglia precedes neuritic plaque formation and microglial activation in a transgenic model of Alzheimer's disease

The formation of cerebral senile plaques composed of amyloid beta peptide (A beta) is a fundamental feature of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Glial cells and more specifically microglia become reactive in the presence of A beta. In a triple transgenic model of AD (3 x Tg-AD), we found a significant increase in activated microglia at 12 (by 111%) and 18 (by 88%) months of age when compared with non-transgenic (non-Tg) controls. This microglial activation correlated with A beta plaque formation, and the activation in microglia was closely associated with A beta plaques and smaller A beta deposits. We also found a significant increase in the area density of resting microglia in 3 x Tg-AD animals both at plaque-free stage (at 9 months by 105%) and after the development of A plaques (at 12 months by 54% and at 18 months by 131%). Our results show for the first time that the increase in the density of resting microglia precedes both plaque formation and activation of microglia by extracellular A beta accumulation. We suggest that AD pathology triggers a complex microglial reaction: at the initial stages of the disease the number of resting microglia increases, as if in preparation for the ensuing activation in an attempt to fight the extracellular A beta load that is characteristic of the terminal stages of the disease. Cell Death and Disease (2010) 1, e1; doi:10.1038/cddis.2009.2; published online 14 January 2010

Formalization of concept-relatedness using ontologies: conceptual density

370 p.

Bilingual Dictionary Drafting. The Example of German-Basque, a Medium-density Language Pair

Edited by Andrea Abel, Chiara Vettori, Natascia Ralli.