Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Landscape valuation through discrete choice experiments: Current practice and future research reflections

This work has been presented in: V Conference AERNA, Faro (Portugal), 30 May 2012-1 June 2012 and IV Workshop on Valuation Methods in Agro-food and Environmental Economics, Castelldefels (Barcelona, Spain), 12 July 2012-13 July 2012.

Uncovering Ecosystem Service Bundles through Social Preferences

11 p.

Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Services: Conflicts in Classification

4 p.

Classifying Ecosystem Services for Economic Valuation: The case of forest water services

30 p.

Valuation of wind energy projects: A real options approach

27 p.

The economics of hydro-meteorological disasters: approaching the estimation of the total costs

21 p.

Legitimaciones sociales de las políticas patrimoniales y museísticas

Cap. 1. Proyectos patrimoniales y museísticos en las sociedades democráticas y capitalistas: entre la legitimación formal y la vinculación social. Iñaki Arrieta Urtizberea. Cap. 2. Musées et patrimoine immatériel au Québec : enjeux politiques et sociaux. Laurier Turgeon. Cap. 3. “El patrimonio pertenece a todos”. De la universalidad a la identidad, ¿cuál es el lugar de la participación social? Victoria Quintero Morón. Cap. 4. La legitimación social y política de los museos: dos casos del estado de Oaxaca, México. Teresa Morales Lersch y Cuauhtémoc Camarena Ocampo. Cap. 5. Reinterpretaciones de la misión social de los museos: políticas de la cultura en la red de museos de Loures, Portugal. Marta Anico. Cap. 6. La comunicación de los museos y sus relaciones con las políticas culturales de las ciudades. Entre la repetición de estrategias y la innovación. Daniel Paül i Agustí. Cap. 7. El Patrimonio de la Guerra Civil como útil de concienciación social al amparo de la Ley de la Memoria Histórica. Óscar Navajas Corral y Julián González Fraile. Cap. 8. Política y planificación museística, y participación social en Cataluña: un breve recorrido histórico y algunas reflexiones. Daniel Solé i Lladós. Cap. 9. Diagnóstico de las acciones de los museos catalanes como parte de las políticas de integración. Fabien Van Geert. Cap. 10. Los inexistentes alcornocaleños y las experiencias museísticas etnográficas en el Parque Natural Los Alcornocales. Agustín Coca Pérez.

Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach

We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC), and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC) price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.