The Relationship between Risk and Expected Return in Europe

Revised: 2006-07

Roaming in the Mobile Internet: when coverage sharing agreements call for regulation

Revised: 2006-06

Moral Hazard and the Internal Organization of Joint Research

Revised 2006-06

A Measure of Gender Wage Discrimination at Quantiles

Revised: 2006-05.-- Published as an article in: Journal of Population Economics, 2007, vol. 18, issue 1, pp. 165-179.

More on Identification on Detailed Wage Decompositions

Revised: 2006-05.-- Published as an article in: The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2004, vol. 86, issue 4, pp. 1034-1036.

The Weekend-Dividend Effect in the Spanish Market

Revised: 2006-05

Terrorism and the World Economy

Published as an article in: European Economic Review, 2008, vol. 52, issue 1, pages 1-27.

On the strategic equivalence of multiple-choice test scoring rules

A disadvantage of multiple-choice tests is that students have incentives to guess. To discourage guessing, it is common to use scoring rules that either penalize wrong answers or reward omissions. These scoring rules are considered equivalent in psychometrics, although experimental evidence has not always been consistent with this claim. We model students' decisions and show, first, that equivalence holds only under risk neutrality and, second, that the two rules can be modified so that they become equivalent even under risk aversion. This paper presents the results of a field experiment in which we analyze the decisions of subjects taking multiple-choice exams. The evidence suggests that differences between scoring rules are due to risk aversion as theory predicts. We also find that the number of omitted items depends on the scoring rule, knowledge, gender and other covariates.

A Supply Function Competition Model for the Spanish Wholesale Electricity Market

We model the Spanish wholesale market as a multiplant linear supply function competition model. According to the theory, the larger generators should have supply curves for each plant which are to the left of the supply curves of plants owned by smaller generators. We test this prediction for fuel plants using data from the Spanish Market Operator (OMEL) from May 2001 to December 2003. Our results indicate that the prediction of the model holds.

Growth in an oil abundant economy: The case of Venezuela

This paper has been presented at DEGIT-X held in México 2005.-- Revised: 2008-08.

The Impact of Gender Segregation on Male-Female Wage Differentials

This paper presents new evidence on the role of gender segregation and pay structure in explaining gender wage differentials of full-time salaried workers in Spain. Data from the 1995 and 2002 Wage Structure Surveys reveal that raw gender wage gaps decreased from 0.24 to 0.14 over the seven-year period. Average differences in the base wage and wage complements decreased from 0.09 to 0.05 and from 0.59 to 0.40, respectively. However, the gender wage gap is still large after accounting for workers’ human capital, job and pay structure characteristics, and female segregation into low-paying industries, occupations, establishments, and occupations within establishments.

Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities

Published also as: Documento de Trabajo Banco de España 0504/2005.

Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe

This paper shows the extraordinary capacity of yield spreads to anticipate consumption growth as proxy by the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission in order to predict turning points in business cycles. This new evidence complements the well known results regarding the usefulness of the slope of the term structure of interest rates to predict real economic conditions and, in particular, recessions by using a direct measure of expectations. A linear combination of European yield spreads explains a surprising 93.7% of the variability of the Economic Sentiment Indicator. Yield spreads seem to be a key determinant of consumer confidence in Europe.

Do experimental subjects favor their friends?

Ideally we would like subjects of experiments to be perfect strangers so that the situation they face at the lab is not just part of a long run interaction. Unfortunately, it is not easy to reach those conditions and experimenters try to mitigate any effects from those out-of-the-lab relationships by, for instance, randomly matching subjects. However, even if this type of procedure is used, there is a positive probability that a subject may face a friend or an acquaintance. We find evidence that social proximity between subjects is irrelevant to experiment results in dictator games. Thus, although ideal conditions are not met, relations between subjects do not contaminate the results of experiments.