Valuing Flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Power Plant

In this paper we analyze the valuation of options stemming from the flexibility in an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Power Plant. First we use as a base case the opportunity to invest in a Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) Power Plant, deriving the optimal investment rule as a function of fuel price and the remaining life of the right to invest. Additionally, the analytical solution for a perpetual option is obtained. Second, the valuation of an operating IGCC Power Plant is studied, with switching costs between states and a choice of the best operation mode. The valuation of this plant serves as a base to obtain the value of the option to delay an investment of this type. Finally, we derive the value of an opportunity to invest either in a NGCC or IGCC Power Plant, that is, to choose between an inflexible and a flexible technology, respectively. Numerical computations involve the use of one- and two-dimensional binomial lattices that support a mean-reverting process for the fuel prices. Basic parameter values refer to an actual IGCC power plant currently in operation.

Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Ikasleen hizkuntza erroreak eta hutsegiteak : zuzentzeko proposamena

[Es]El presente trabajo se basa en las consultas que los profesores y profesoras de distintas asignaturas nos hacen al profesorado de lengua. Muchas veces los profesores debemos corregir no sólo el contenido de los trabajos de nuestros alumnos, sino también la lengua. La discusión no es nueva: ¿somos todos los profesores también profesores de lengua? Es un desafío del que difícilmente podemos escapar, ya que la lengua además de ser una materia de estudio también es el vehículo en el que se imparten los contenidos de todas las asignaturas. Con el presente trabajo pretendemos ayudar a los profesores que no imparten lengua como asignatura a corregir los trabajos de sus alumnos. Esta propuesta consta de tres ejes de actuación marcados por un orden de prioridad: prevenir, autocorregir y ayudar.

Adam Smith on labour and value: challenging the standard interpretation

This paper was presented at the Seminars of the Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis I, University of the Basque Country in September 2004.

La implicación del estudiante con la escuela

[Es]El objetivo de esta investigación ha sido analizar la implicación o compromiso de nuestros estudiantes con sus centros escolares. La implicación posee un componente conductual (la participación) y un componente psicológico (la identificación con el centro escolar). La muestra está compuesta por 656 alumnos de 14 colegios del País Vasco y Cataluña, divididos según diferentes tipologías de centro: 179 en pública-primaria, 151 alumnos en concertada-primaria, 203 alumnos en pública¬-secundaria y 123 alumnos en concertada-secundaria. Los resultados indican que las percepciones en las escalas de participación e identificación son más altas en los centros concertados, de primaria y con una sola línea educativa y modelo lingüístico. Así mismo hemos comprobado que existen correlaciones entre las dos dimensiones de la implicación y las variables independientes analizadas: autoconcepto y motivación académica, tipología de centro, trabajo de los profesores y el entorno familiar.

DANTE: Un MEGA dinámico para el control del cambio climático en España

El estudio de los impactos económicos de las políticas de control del cambio climático requiere del uso de modelos adecuados. Este artículo presenta un Modelo Dinámico de Equilibrio General Aplicado tipo Ramsey. El modelo implementa un mercado de permisos de emisión perfecto que garantiza una reducción de emisiones eficiente y efectiva, permitiéndonos calcular los costes económicos mínimos asociados al control de las emisiones de efecto invernadero. Además aprovecha al máximo la disponibilidad de datos existentes en España 1) utilizando una matriz de contabilidad social (o SAM) energética mediante la integración de la información económica de la Tablas Input-Output y la información energética de los Balances Energéticos y 2) considerando todas la emisiones sujetas a control además del CO2. Los MEGAs dinámicos son inéditos en cuanto a su elaboración y aplicación en España y permiten investigar ex-ante los efectos de políticas públicas en el medio y en largo plazo.

Mas-Colell, Whinston and Green Versus Scitovsky on Profit and Utility Maximization

I contrast the theoretical foundation of profit maximization of Mas-Colell, Whinston and Green’s “Microeconomics” against that provided by Scitovsky in a paper of 1943. Whereas Mas-Colell, Whinston and Green try to show that profit maximization can be derived from utility maximization, Scitovsky categorically states the contrary view. I argue, first, that the foundation provided by Mas-Colell, Whinston and Green is not sound and, secondly, that Scitovsky’s line of reasoning opens a better way to model business behavior.

A Behavioral Foundation for Models of Evolutionary Drift

Binmore and Samuelson (1999) have shown that perturbations (drift) are crucial to study the stability properties of Nash equilibria. We contribute to this literature by providing a behavioural foundation for models of evolutionary drift. In particular, this article introduces a microeconomic model of drift based on the similarity theory developed by Tversky (1977), Kahneman and Tversky (1979) and Rubinstein (1988),(1998). An innovation with respect to those works is that we deal with similarity relations that are derived from the perception that each agent has about how well he is playing the game. In addition, the similarity relations are adapted to a dynamic setting. We obtain different models of drift depending on how we model the agent´s assessment of his behaviour in the game. The examples of the ultimatum game and the chain-store game are used to show the conditions for each model to stabilize elements in the component of Nash equilibria that are not subgame- perfect. It is also shown how some models approximate the laboratory data about those games while others match the data.

Implementing with veto players: a simple non cooperative game

The paper adapts a non cooperative game presented by Dagan, Serrano and Volij (1997) for bankruptcy problems to the context of TU veto balanced games. We investigate the relationship between the Nash outcomes of a noncooperative game and solution concepts of cooperative games such as the nucleolus, kernel and the egalitarian core.

Admissible Hierachic Sets

In this paper we present a solution concept for abstract systems called the admissible hierarchic set. The solution we propose is a refinement of the hierarchic solution, a generalization of the von Neumann and Morgenstern solution. For finite abstract systems we show that the admissible hierarchic sets and the von Neumann and Morgenstern stable sets are the only outcomes of a coalition formation procedure (Wilson, 1972 and Roth, 1984). For coalitional games we prove that the core is either a vN&M stable set or an admissible hierarchic set.

Choice of Flexible Production Technologies Under Strategic Delegation

This work analyzes a managerial delegation model in which firms can choose between a flexible production technology which allows them to produce two different products and a dedicated production technology which limits production to only one product. We analyze whether the incentives to adopt the flexible technology are smaller or greater in a managerial delegation model than under strict profit maximization. We obtain that the asymmetric equilibrium in which only one firm adopts the flexible technology can be sustained under strategic delegation but not under strict profit maximization when products are substitutes. We extend the analysis to consider welfare implications.

A Fundamental Contradiction in Standard Rent Theory: A Case Study on Varian's "Intermediate Microeconomics"

In this paper, I examine Varian’s treatment of rent in his textbook on Microeconomics. I argue that he holds contradictory conceptions: sometimes rent is defined as surplus over cost whereas sometimes it is defined as cost, as the opportunity cost of fixed factors. I start by arguing that the distinction between fixed and variable factors is not the key for the definition of rent; ultimately, it is monopoly. Varian’s conception of rent is, essentially, Ricardo’s: rent is extraordinary profit turned rent. On the basis of a selfinconsistent notion of opportunity cost, Varian introduces the idea that rent is the opportunity cost of land, when what he actually defines is the opportunity cost of not renting the land. I also critically examine the related notion of “producer’s surplus”, and show that Varian’s treatment repeats the same contradiction as in rent.

Valoración de la garantía de los planes de pensiones en España

Este trabajo ha sido presentado en la Universidad del País Vasco y en el VII Encuentro de Economía Aplicada.

Cost-Saving production technologies and strategic delegation

This work analyzes a managerial delegation model in which firms that produce a differentiated good can choose between two production technologies: a low marginal cost technology and a high marginal cost technology. For the former to be adopted more investment is needed than for the latter. By giving managers of firms an incentive scheme based on a linear combination of profit and sales revenue, we find that Bertrand competition provides a stronger incentive to adopt the cost-saving technology than the strict profit maximization case. However, the results may be reversed under Cournot competition. We show that if the degree of product substitutability is sufficiently low (high), the incentive to adopt the cost-saving technology is larger under strict profit maximization (strategic delegation).

La evolución de la intensidad energética de la industria vasca entre 1982-2001: Un análisis de descomposición

In this article an index decomposition methodology is used to estimate the effect of intersectorial and intrasectorial changes in explaining the 38% reduction in industrial energy intensity in the Basque Autonomous Community from 1982 to 2001. Period-wise additive decomposition results show that (1) the decline is fully explained by intrasectorial changes and that (2) intersectorial changes have not contributed to reduce but to increase the energy intensity of the Basque industrial sector. However, timeseries decomposition analysis shows that (1) four different phases can be distinguished in the evolution of energy intensity of the Basque industry from 1982 to 2001 and (2) that the evolution of the “Iron and Steel” sector is determinant when explaining those phases. Moreover, the analysis stresses the necessity to disaggregate the “Iron and Steel” sector in order to be able to distinguish purely technological effects from the rest of intrasectorial changes.