Extreme events and ecological forecasting

Almost all extreme events lasting less than several weeks that significantly impact ecosystems are weather related. This review examines the response of estuarine systems to intense short-term perturbations caused by major weather events such as hurricanes. Current knowledge concerning these effects is limited to relatively few studies where hurricanes and storms impacted estuaries with established environmental monitoring programs. Freshwater inputs associated with these storms were found to initially result in increased primary productivity. When hydrographic conditions are favorable, bacterial consumption of organic matter produced by the phytoplankton blooms and deposited during the initial runoff event can contribute to significant oxygen deficits during subsequent warmer periods. Salinity stress and habitat destruction associated with freshwater inputs, as well as anoxia, adversely affect benthic populations and fish. In contrast, mobile invertebrate species such as shrimp, which have a short life cycle and the ability to migrate during the runoff event, initially benefit from the increased primary productivity and decreased abundance of fish predators. Events studied so far indicate that estuaries rebound in one to three years following major short-term perturbations. However, repeated storm events without sufficient recovery time may cause a fundamental shift in ecosystem structure (Scavia et al. 2002). This is a scenario consistent with the predicted increase in hurricanes for the east coast of the United States. More work on the response of individual species to these stresses is needed so management of commercial resources can be adjusted to allow sufficient recovery time for affected populations.

Stock-rebuilding time isopleths and constant-F stock-rebuilding plans for overfished stocks

Stock-rebuilding time isopleths relate constant levels of fishing mortality (F), stock biomass, and management goals to rebuilding times for overfished stocks. We used simulation models with uncertainty about FMSY and variability in annual intrinsic growth rates (ry) to calculate rebuilding time isopleths for Georges Bank yellowtail flounder, Limanda ferruginea, and cowcod rockfish, Sebastes levis, in the Southern California Bight. Stock-rebuilding time distributions from stochastic models were variable and right-skewed, indicating that rebuilding may take less or substantially more time than expected. The probability of long rebuilding times increased with lower biomass, higher F, uncertainty about FMSY, and autocorrelation in ry values. Uncertainty about FMSY had the greatest effect on rebuilding times. Median recovery times from simulations were insensitive to model assumptions about uncertainty and variability, suggesting that median recovery times should be considered in rebuilding plans. Isopleths calculated in previous studies by deterministic models approximate median, rather than mean, rebuilding times. Stochastic models allow managers to specify and evaluate the risk (measured as a probability) of not achieving a rebuilding goal according to schedule. Rebuilding time isopleths can be used for stocks with a range of life histories and can be based on any type of population dynamics model. They are directly applicable with constant F rebuilding plans but are also useful in other cases. We used new algorithms for simulating autocorrelated process errors from a gamma distribution and evaluated sensitivity to statistical distributions assumed for ry. Uncertainty about current biomass and fishing mortality rates can be considered with rebuilding time isopleths in evaluating and designing constant-F rebuilding plans.

Observations on the wastage of raw material and recovery of meat in the prawn processing industry

The wastage of prawns due to spoilage in processing factories accounted to about 0-12% in 1974, 0-35% in 1975, 0-3% in 1976 and 0-4% in 1977. Spoilage increases with the time lag between catching and processing and also due to defective icing. The paper discusses the counts of whole prawns required for obtaining meat of specified size grades.