Monitoring well-being and changing environmental conditions in coastal communities: development of an assessment method

The intersection of social and environmental forces is complex in coastal communities. The well-being of a coastal community is caught up in the health of its environment, the stability of its economy, the provision of services to its residents, and a multitude of other factors. With this in mind, the project investigators sought to develop an approach that would enable researchers to measure these social and environmental interactions. The concept of well-being proved extremely useful for this purpose. Using the Gulf of Mexico as a regional case study, the research team developed a set of composite indicators to be used for monitoring well-being at the county-level. The indicators selected for the study were: Social Connectedness, Economic Security, Basic Needs, Health, Access to Social Services, Education, Safety, Governance, and Environmental Condition. For each of the 37 sample counties included in the study region, investigators collected and consolidated existing, secondary data representing multiple aspects of objective well-being. To conduct a longitudinal assessment of changing wellbeing and environmental conditions, data were collected for the period of 2000 to 2010. The team focused on the Gulf of Mexico because the development of a baseline of well-being would allow NOAA and other agencies to better understand progress made toward recovery in communities affected by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. However, the broader purpose of the project was to conceptualize and develop an approach that could be adapted to monitor how coastal communities are doing in relation to a variety of ecosystem disruptions and associated interventions across all coastal regions in the U.S. and its Territories. The method and models developed provide substantial insight into the structure and significance of relationships between community well-being and environmental conditions. Further, this project has laid the groundwork for future investigation, providing a clear path forward for integrated monitoring of our nation’s coasts. The research and monitoring capability described in this document will substantially help counties, local organizations, as well state and federal agencies that are striving to improve all facets of community well-being.

Synthesis of marine ecosystem monitoring activities for the United States Virgin Islands: 1990-2009

The ecological integrity of coral reef ecosystems in the U.S. Caribbean is widely considered to have deteriorated in the last three decades due to a range of threats and stressors from both human and non-human processes Rothenberger 2008, Wilkinson 2008). In response to the threats to Caribbean coral reef ecosystems and other regions around the world, the United States Government authorized the Coral Reef Conservation Act of 2000 to: (1) preserve, sustain, and restore the condition of coral reef ecosystems; (2) promote the wise management and sustainable use of coral reef ecosystems to benefit local communities and the Nation; and (3) develop sound scientific information on the condition of coral reef ecosystems and the threats to such ecosystems. The Act also resulted in the formation of a National Coral Reef Action Strategy and a Coral Reef Conservation Program. The Action Strategy (Goal 2 of Action Theme 1) outlined the importance of monitoring and assessing coral reef health as a mechanism toward reducing many threats to these ecosystems. Monitoring was considered of high importance in addressing impacts from climate change; disease; overfishing; destructive fishing practices; habitat destruction; invasive species; coastal development; coastal pollution; sedimentation/runoff and overuse from tourism. The strategy states that successful coral reef ecosystem conservation requires adaptive management that responds quickly to changing environmental conditions. This, in turn, depends on monitoring programs that track trends in coral reef ecosystem health and reveal patterns in their condition before irreparable harm occurs. As such, monitoring plays a vital role in guiding and supporting the establishment of complex or potentially controversial management strategies such as no-take ecological reserves, fishing gear restrictions, or habitat restoration, by documenting the impacts of gaps in existing management schemes and illustrating the effectiveness of new measures over time. Long-term monitoring is also required to determine the effectiveness of various management strategies to conserve and enhance coral reef ecosystems.

Gulf of Mexico tidal creeks serve as sentinel habitats for assessing the impact of coastal development on ecosystem health

A study was conducted, in association with the Alabama and Mississippi National Estuarine Research Reserves (NERRs) in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) as well as the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina NERRs in the Southeast (SE), to evaluate the impacts of coastal development on tidal creek sentinel habitats, including potential impacts to human health and well-being. Uplands associated with Southeast and Gulf of Mexico tidal creeks, and the salt marshes they drain, are popular locations for building homes, resorts, and recreational facilities because of the high quality of life and mild climate associated with these environments. Tidal creeks form part of the estuarine ecosystem characterized by high biological productivity, great ecological value, complex environmental gradients, and numerous interconnected processes. This research combined a watershed-level study integrating ecological, public health and human dimension attributes with watershed-level land cover data. The approach used for this research was based upon a comparative watershed and ecosystem approach that sampled tidal creek networks draining developed watersheds (e.g., suburban, urban, and industrial) as well as undeveloped sites (Holland et al. 2004, Sanger et al. 2008). The primary objective of this work was to define the relationships between coastal development with its concomitant land cover changes, and non-point source pollution loading and the ecological and human health and wellbeing status of tidal creek ecosystems. Nineteen tidal creek systems, located along the Southeastern United States coast from southern North Carolina to southern Georgia, and five Gulf of Mexico systems from Alabama and Mississippi were sampled during summer (June-August) 2005, 2006 (SE) and 2008 (GoM). Within each system, creeks were divided into two primary segments based upon tidal zoning: intertidal (i.e., shallow, narrow headwater sections) and subtidal (i.e., deeper and wider sections), and watersheds were delineated for each segment. In total, we report findings on 29 intertidal and 24 subtidal creeks. Indicators sampled throughout each creek included water quality (e.g., dissolved oxygen, salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll-a levels), sediment quality (e.g., characteristics, contaminant levels including emerging contaminants), pathogen and viral indicators (e.g., fecal coliform, enterococci, F+ coliphages, F- coliphages), and abundance and tissue contamination of biological resources (e.g., macrobenthic and nektonic communities, shellfish tissue contaminants). Tidal creeks have been identified as a sentinel habitat to assess the impacts of coastal development on estuarine areas in the southeastern US. A conceptual model for tidal creeks in the southeastern US identifies that human alterations (stressors) of upland in a watershed such as increased impervious cover will lead to changes in the physical and chemical environment such as microbial and nutrient pollution (exposures), of a receiving water body which then lead to changes in the living resources (responses). The overall objective of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the current tidal creek classification framework and conceptual model linking tidal creek ecological condition to potential impacts of development and urban growth on ecosystem value and function in the Gulf of Mexico US in collaboration with Gulf of Mexico NERR sites. The conceptual model was validated for the Gulf of Mexico US tidal creeks. The tidal creek classification system developed for the southeastern US could be applied to the Gulf of Mexico tidal creeks; however, some differences were found that warrant further examination. In particular, pollutants appeared to translate further downstream in the Gulf of Mexico US compared to the southeastern US. These differences are likely the result of the morphological and oceanographic differences between the two regions. Tidal creeks appear to serve as sentinel habitats to provide an early warning of the ensuing harm to the larger ecosystem in both the Southeastern and Gulf of Mexico US tidal creeks.

Field applications of the second-generation Environmental Sample Processor (ESP) for remote detection of harmful algae: 2006-2007

We assess the application of the second-generation Environmental Sample Processor (ESP) for the detection of harmful algal bloom (HAB) species in field and laboratory settings using two molecular probe techniques: a sandwich hybridization assay (SHA) and fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH). During spring 2006, the first time this new instrument was deployed, the ESP successfully automated application of DNA probe arrays for various HAB species and other planktonic taxa, but non-specific background binding on the SHA probe array support made results interpretation problematic. Following 2006, the DNA array support membrane that we were using was replaced with a different membrane, and the SHA chemistry was adjusted. The sensitivity and dynamic range of these modifications were assessed using 96-well plate and ESP array SHA formats for several HAB species found commonly in Monterey Bay over a range of concentrations; responses were significantly correlated (p < 0.01). Modified arrays were deployed in 2007. Compared to 2006, probe arrays showed improved signal:noise, and remote detection of various HAB species was demonstrated. We confirmed that the ESP and affiliated assays can detect HAB populations at levels below those posing human health concerns, and results can be related to prevailing environmental conditions in near real-time.

Juvenile salmonid distribution, growth, condition, origin, and environmental and species associations in the Northern California Current

Information is summarized on juvenile salmonid distribution, size, condition, growth, stock origin, and species and environmental associations from June and August 2000 GLOBEC cruises with particular emphasis on differences related to the regions north and south of Cape Blanco off Southern Oregon. Juvenile salmon were more abundant during the August cruise as compared to the June cruise and were mainly distributed northward from Cape Blanco. There were distinct differences in distribution patterns between salmon species: chinook salmon were found close inshore in cooler water all along the coast and coho salmon were rarely found south of Cape Blanco. Distance offshore and temperature were the dominant explanatory variables related to coho and chinook salmon distribution. The nekton assemblages differed significantly between cruises. The June cruise was dominated by juvenile rockfishes, rex sole, and sablefish, which were almost completely absent in August. The forage fish community during June comprised Pacific herring and whitebait smelt north of Cape Blanco and surf smelt south of Cape Blanco. The fish community in August was dominated by Pacific sardines and highly migratory pelagic species. Estimated growth rates of juvenile coho salmon were higher in the GLOBEC study area than in areas farther north. An unusually high percentage of coho salmon in the study area were precocious males. Significant differences in growth and condition of juvenile coho salmon indicated different oceanographic environments north and south of Cape Blanco. The condition index was higher in juvenile coho salmon to the north but no significant differences were found for yearling chinook salmon. Genetic mixed stock analysis indicated that during June, most of the Chinook salmon in our sample originated from rivers along the central coast of Oregon. In August, chinook salmon sampled south of Cape Blanco were largely from southern Oregon and northern California; whereas most chinook salmon north of Cape Blanco were from the Central Valley in California.

A general framework for integrating environmental time series into stock assessment models: model description, simulation testing, and example

We present a method to integrate environmental time series into stock assessment models and to test the significance of correlations between population processes and the environmental time series. Parameters that relate the environmental time series to population processes are included in the stock assessment model, and likelihood ratio tests are used to determine if the parameters improve the fit to the data significantly. Two approaches are considered to integrate the environmental relationship. In the environmental model, the population dynamics process (e.g. recruitment) is proportional to the environmental variable, whereas in the environmental model with process error it is proportional to the environmental variable, but the model allows an additional temporal variation (process error) constrained by a log-normal distribution. The methods are tested by using simulation analysis and compared to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. In the traditional method, the estimates of recruitment were provided by a model that allowed the recruitment only to have a temporal variation constrained by a log-normal distribution. We illustrate the methods by applying them to test the statistical significance of the correlation between sea-surface temperature (SST) and recruitment to the snapper (Pagrus auratus) stock in the Hauraki Gulf–Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. Simulation analyses indicated that the integrated approach with additional process error is superior to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. The results suggest that, for the snapper stock, recruitment is positively correlated with SST at the time of spawning.

Strong, low frequency (decadal) environmental fluctuations during the 20th century in the North Pacific Ocean, on the Washington coast, and in Puget Sound

At decadal period (10-20 years), dynamic linkage was evident between atmospheric low pressure systems over the North Pacific Ocean and circulation in a Pacific Northwest fjord (Puget Sound). As the Aleutian low pressure center shifts, storms arriving from the North Pacific Ocean deposit varying amounts of precipitation in the mountains draining into the estuarine system; in turn, the fluctuating addition of fresh water changes the density distribution near the fjord basin entrance sill, thereby constraining the fjord's vertical velocity structure. This linkage was examined using time series of 21 environmental parameters from 1899 to 1987. Covariation in the time series was evident because of the strong decadal cycles compared with long-term averages, interannual variability, and seasonal cycles.

Time series analyses of biological and environmental variables for Suisun Bay and the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Arima analysis was used to compute cross-correlations between principal component axes that described environmental variables, chlorophyll concentration and zooplankton density for the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers and Suisun Bay. ... Cross-correlations among the time series may provide information about links between environmental and biological variables within the estuary and the possible influence of climate.

Exploratory analysis of resource demand and the environmental footprint of future aquaculture development using Life Cycle Assessment

Increases in fish demand in the coming decades are projected to be largely met by growth of aquaculture. However, increased aquaculture production is linked to higher demand for natural resources and energy as well as emissions to the environment. This paper explores the use of Life Cycle Assessment to improve knowledge of potential environmental impacts of future aquaculture growth. Different scenarios of future aquaculture development are taken into account in calculating the life cycle environmental impacts. The environmental impact assessments were built on Food and Agriculture Organization statistics in terms of production volume of different species, whereas the inputs and outputs associated with aquaculture production systems were sourced from the literature. The matrix of input-output databases was established through the Blue Frontiers study.

Influence of climate on environmental factors associated with long-term changes in chlorophyll production for the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta and Suisun Bay, California

Long-term changes in chlorophyll production were predicted from environmental variables for the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers and Suisun Bay using Box-Jenkins transfer function models. Data used for the analyses were collected semimonthly or monthly between 1971 and 1987. Transfer function models developed to describe changes in chlorophyll production over time as a function of environmental variables were characterized by lagged responses and described between 39 and 51 percent of the data variation. Significant correlations between environmental variables and the California climate index (CA SLP) were used to develop a conceptual model of the link between regional climate and estuarine production.

A 139-year dendroclimatic cycle, cultural/environmental history, sunspots, and longer-term cycles

Higher resolution time-stratigraphic records suggest correlation of lower frequency paleoclimatic events with Milankovitch obliquity/precessional cycles and of higher frequency events with the evidently resonance-related Pettersson maximum tidal force (MTF) model. Subsequently published records, mainly pollen, seemingly confirm that atmospheric resonances may have modulated past climatic changes in phase with average MTF cycles of 1668, 1112, and 556 years, as calculated in anomalistic years from planetary movements by Stacey. Stacey accepts Pettersson's dating of AD 1433 (517 YBP) for the last major perihelian spring tide based solely on calculations of moon- and earth-orbital relations to the sun. Use of AD 1433 as an origin for the tidal resonance model seemingly continues to provide a best fit for the timing of cyclical patterns in the presented paleoclimate time series.

Late Holocene environmental variability in the upper San Francisco Estuary as reconstructed from tidal marsh sediments

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Tidal marsh sediments collected from Browns Island in the lower Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, California, are used to reconstruct environmental variability over the past 6.8 ka. Calibrated radiocarbon dates provide chronostratigraphic control. Trace metal analyses, grain-size variability, organic content, and macrofossils are used to define short- and long-term variations in relative salinity and inundation frequency. Aggradation began in subtidal fresh water conditions about 6.8 ka. Subtidal aggradation of clayey silts continued until about 6.3 ka, when conditions shifted toward a lower intertidal brackish marsh environment. By 5.1 ka, a brackish marsh plain had evolved, with surface water freshening after 4.1 ka. Conditions returned to brackish similar to the present after 2.3 ka.

A late-Holocene pollen record from Lower Pahrangat Lake, southern Nevada, USA: high resolution paleoclimatic records and analysis of environmental responses to climate change

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): High resolution paleobotanical records provide sufficient detail to correlate events regionally. Once correlated events can be examined in tandem to determine the underlying inputs that fashioned them. Several localities in the Great Basin have paleobotanical records of sufficient detail to generate regional reconstructions of vegetation changes for the last 2 ka and provide conclusions as to the climates that caused them.

Environmental inventory and the distribution of inorganic nutrients in a tropical estuary of the south-west coast of India

Dissolved nutrients (PO sub(4)-P, NO sub(3)-N, NO sub(2)-N and SiO sub(4)-Si) estimated in the surface and bottom waters of five selected stations of the Paravur Lake, Kerala, India, during February 1987 to January 1988 revealed distinct seasonal variations. Rainfall and land drainage play significant roles in the nutrient economy, particularly NO sub(3)-N and SiO sub(4)-Si, of this water body. Abnormally high values of PO sub(4)-P indicated extremely polluted condition at the wetting zone of the lake during the premonsoon season. SiO sub(4)-Si showed significant negative relationship with salinity.