A Biogeographic assessment off North/Central California: In support of the National Marine Sanctuaries of Cordell Bank, Gulf of the Farallones and Monterey Bay. Phase II - Environmental setting and update to marine birds and animals

NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) conducts and supports research, monitoring, assessments, and technical assistance to meet NOAA’s coastal stewardship and management responsibilities. In 2001 the Biogeography Branch of NCCOS partnered with NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuary Program (NMSP) to conduct biogeographic assessments to support the management plan updates for the sanctuaries. The first biogeographic assessment conducted in this partnership focused on three sanctuaries off north/ central California: Cordell Bank, Gulf of the Farallones and Monterey Bay. Phase I of this assessment was conducted from 2001 to 2004, with the primary goal to identify and gather the best available data and information to characterize and identify important biological areas and time periods within the study area. The study area encompasses the three sanctuaries and extends along the coastal ocean off California from Pt. Arena to Pt. Sal (35°-39°N). This partnership project was lead by the NCCOS Biogeography Branch, but included over 90 contributors and 25 collaborating institutions. Phase I results include: 1) a report on the overall assessment that includes hundreds of maps, tables and analyses; 2) an ecological linkage report on the marine and estuarine ecosystems along the coast of north/central California, and 3) related geographic information system (GIS) data and other summary data files, which are available for viewing and download in several formats at the following website: http://ccma.nos.noaa.gov/products/biogeography/canms_cd/welcome.html Phase II (this report) was initiated in the Fall of 2004 to complete the analyses of marine mammals and update the marine bird colony information. Phase II resulted in significant updates to the bird and mammal chapters, as well as adding an environmental settings chapter, which contains new and existing data and maps on the study area. Specifically, the following Phase II topics and items were either revised or developed new for Phase II: •environmental, ecological settings – new maps on marine physiographic features, sea surface temperature and fronts, chlorophyll and productivity •all bird colony or roost maps, including a summary of marine bird colonies •updated at-sea data CDAS data set (1980-2003) •all mammal maps and descriptions •new overall density maps for eight mammal species •new summary pinniped rookery/haulout map •new maps on at-sea richness for cetaceans and pinnipeds •most text in the mammal chapter •new summary tables for mammals on population status and spatial and temporal patterns

Monitoring well-being and changing environmental conditions in coastal communities: development of an assessment method

The intersection of social and environmental forces is complex in coastal communities. The well-being of a coastal community is caught up in the health of its environment, the stability of its economy, the provision of services to its residents, and a multitude of other factors. With this in mind, the project investigators sought to develop an approach that would enable researchers to measure these social and environmental interactions. The concept of well-being proved extremely useful for this purpose. Using the Gulf of Mexico as a regional case study, the research team developed a set of composite indicators to be used for monitoring well-being at the county-level. The indicators selected for the study were: Social Connectedness, Economic Security, Basic Needs, Health, Access to Social Services, Education, Safety, Governance, and Environmental Condition. For each of the 37 sample counties included in the study region, investigators collected and consolidated existing, secondary data representing multiple aspects of objective well-being. To conduct a longitudinal assessment of changing wellbeing and environmental conditions, data were collected for the period of 2000 to 2010. The team focused on the Gulf of Mexico because the development of a baseline of well-being would allow NOAA and other agencies to better understand progress made toward recovery in communities affected by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. However, the broader purpose of the project was to conceptualize and develop an approach that could be adapted to monitor how coastal communities are doing in relation to a variety of ecosystem disruptions and associated interventions across all coastal regions in the U.S. and its Territories. The method and models developed provide substantial insight into the structure and significance of relationships between community well-being and environmental conditions. Further, this project has laid the groundwork for future investigation, providing a clear path forward for integrated monitoring of our nation’s coasts. The research and monitoring capability described in this document will substantially help counties, local organizations, as well state and federal agencies that are striving to improve all facets of community well-being.

Field applications of the second-generation Environmental Sample Processor (ESP) for remote detection of harmful algae: 2006-2007

We assess the application of the second-generation Environmental Sample Processor (ESP) for the detection of harmful algal bloom (HAB) species in field and laboratory settings using two molecular probe techniques: a sandwich hybridization assay (SHA) and fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH). During spring 2006, the first time this new instrument was deployed, the ESP successfully automated application of DNA probe arrays for various HAB species and other planktonic taxa, but non-specific background binding on the SHA probe array support made results interpretation problematic. Following 2006, the DNA array support membrane that we were using was replaced with a different membrane, and the SHA chemistry was adjusted. The sensitivity and dynamic range of these modifications were assessed using 96-well plate and ESP array SHA formats for several HAB species found commonly in Monterey Bay over a range of concentrations; responses were significantly correlated (p < 0.01). Modified arrays were deployed in 2007. Compared to 2006, probe arrays showed improved signal:noise, and remote detection of various HAB species was demonstrated. We confirmed that the ESP and affiliated assays can detect HAB populations at levels below those posing human health concerns, and results can be related to prevailing environmental conditions in near real-time.

An environmentally based growth model that uses finite difference calculus with maximum likelihood method: its application to the brackish water bivalve Corbicula japonica in Lake Abashiri, Japan

We present a growth analysis model that combines large amounts of environmental data with limited amounts of biological data and apply it to Corbicula japonica. The model uses the maximum-likelihood method with the Akaike information criterion, which provides an objective criterion for model selection. An adequate distribution for describing a single cohort is selected from available probability density functions, which are expressed by location and scale parameters. Daily relative increase rates of the location parameter are expressed by a multivariate logistic function with environmental factors for each day and categorical variables indicating animal ages as independent variables. Daily relative increase rates of the scale parameter are expressed by an equation describing the relationship with the daily relative increase rate of the location parameter. Corbicula japonica grows to a modal shell length of 0.7 mm during the first year in Lake Abashiri. Compared with the attain-able maximum size of about 30 mm, the growth of juveniles is extremely slow because their growth is less susceptible to environmental factors until the second winter. The extremely slow growth in Lake Abashiri could be a geographical genetic variation within C. japonica.

Juvenile salmonid distribution, growth, condition, origin, and environmental and species associations in the Northern California Current

Information is summarized on juvenile salmonid distribution, size, condition, growth, stock origin, and species and environmental associations from June and August 2000 GLOBEC cruises with particular emphasis on differences related to the regions north and south of Cape Blanco off Southern Oregon. Juvenile salmon were more abundant during the August cruise as compared to the June cruise and were mainly distributed northward from Cape Blanco. There were distinct differences in distribution patterns between salmon species: chinook salmon were found close inshore in cooler water all along the coast and coho salmon were rarely found south of Cape Blanco. Distance offshore and temperature were the dominant explanatory variables related to coho and chinook salmon distribution. The nekton assemblages differed significantly between cruises. The June cruise was dominated by juvenile rockfishes, rex sole, and sablefish, which were almost completely absent in August. The forage fish community during June comprised Pacific herring and whitebait smelt north of Cape Blanco and surf smelt south of Cape Blanco. The fish community in August was dominated by Pacific sardines and highly migratory pelagic species. Estimated growth rates of juvenile coho salmon were higher in the GLOBEC study area than in areas farther north. An unusually high percentage of coho salmon in the study area were precocious males. Significant differences in growth and condition of juvenile coho salmon indicated different oceanographic environments north and south of Cape Blanco. The condition index was higher in juvenile coho salmon to the north but no significant differences were found for yearling chinook salmon. Genetic mixed stock analysis indicated that during June, most of the Chinook salmon in our sample originated from rivers along the central coast of Oregon. In August, chinook salmon sampled south of Cape Blanco were largely from southern Oregon and northern California; whereas most chinook salmon north of Cape Blanco were from the Central Valley in California.

A general framework for integrating environmental time series into stock assessment models: model description, simulation testing, and example

We present a method to integrate environmental time series into stock assessment models and to test the significance of correlations between population processes and the environmental time series. Parameters that relate the environmental time series to population processes are included in the stock assessment model, and likelihood ratio tests are used to determine if the parameters improve the fit to the data significantly. Two approaches are considered to integrate the environmental relationship. In the environmental model, the population dynamics process (e.g. recruitment) is proportional to the environmental variable, whereas in the environmental model with process error it is proportional to the environmental variable, but the model allows an additional temporal variation (process error) constrained by a log-normal distribution. The methods are tested by using simulation analysis and compared to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. In the traditional method, the estimates of recruitment were provided by a model that allowed the recruitment only to have a temporal variation constrained by a log-normal distribution. We illustrate the methods by applying them to test the statistical significance of the correlation between sea-surface temperature (SST) and recruitment to the snapper (Pagrus auratus) stock in the Hauraki Gulf–Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. Simulation analyses indicated that the integrated approach with additional process error is superior to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. The results suggest that, for the snapper stock, recruitment is positively correlated with SST at the time of spawning.

Strong, low frequency (decadal) environmental fluctuations during the 20th century in the North Pacific Ocean, on the Washington coast, and in Puget Sound

At decadal period (10-20 years), dynamic linkage was evident between atmospheric low pressure systems over the North Pacific Ocean and circulation in a Pacific Northwest fjord (Puget Sound). As the Aleutian low pressure center shifts, storms arriving from the North Pacific Ocean deposit varying amounts of precipitation in the mountains draining into the estuarine system; in turn, the fluctuating addition of fresh water changes the density distribution near the fjord basin entrance sill, thereby constraining the fjord's vertical velocity structure. This linkage was examined using time series of 21 environmental parameters from 1899 to 1987. Covariation in the time series was evident because of the strong decadal cycles compared with long-term averages, interannual variability, and seasonal cycles.

Time series analyses of biological and environmental variables for Suisun Bay and the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Arima analysis was used to compute cross-correlations between principal component axes that described environmental variables, chlorophyll concentration and zooplankton density for the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers and Suisun Bay. ... Cross-correlations among the time series may provide information about links between environmental and biological variables within the estuary and the possible influence of climate.

Exploratory analysis of resource demand and the environmental footprint of future aquaculture development using Life Cycle Assessment

Increases in fish demand in the coming decades are projected to be largely met by growth of aquaculture. However, increased aquaculture production is linked to higher demand for natural resources and energy as well as emissions to the environment. This paper explores the use of Life Cycle Assessment to improve knowledge of potential environmental impacts of future aquaculture growth. Different scenarios of future aquaculture development are taken into account in calculating the life cycle environmental impacts. The environmental impact assessments were built on Food and Agriculture Organization statistics in terms of production volume of different species, whereas the inputs and outputs associated with aquaculture production systems were sourced from the literature. The matrix of input-output databases was established through the Blue Frontiers study.

Influence of climate on environmental factors associated with long-term changes in chlorophyll production for the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta and Suisun Bay, California

Long-term changes in chlorophyll production were predicted from environmental variables for the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers and Suisun Bay using Box-Jenkins transfer function models. Data used for the analyses were collected semimonthly or monthly between 1971 and 1987. Transfer function models developed to describe changes in chlorophyll production over time as a function of environmental variables were characterized by lagged responses and described between 39 and 51 percent of the data variation. Significant correlations between environmental variables and the California climate index (CA SLP) were used to develop a conceptual model of the link between regional climate and estuarine production.

A 139-year dendroclimatic cycle, cultural/environmental history, sunspots, and longer-term cycles

Higher resolution time-stratigraphic records suggest correlation of lower frequency paleoclimatic events with Milankovitch obliquity/precessional cycles and of higher frequency events with the evidently resonance-related Pettersson maximum tidal force (MTF) model. Subsequently published records, mainly pollen, seemingly confirm that atmospheric resonances may have modulated past climatic changes in phase with average MTF cycles of 1668, 1112, and 556 years, as calculated in anomalistic years from planetary movements by Stacey. Stacey accepts Pettersson's dating of AD 1433 (517 YBP) for the last major perihelian spring tide based solely on calculations of moon- and earth-orbital relations to the sun. Use of AD 1433 as an origin for the tidal resonance model seemingly continues to provide a best fit for the timing of cyclical patterns in the presented paleoclimate time series.

Late Holocene environmental variability in the upper San Francisco Estuary as reconstructed from tidal marsh sediments

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Tidal marsh sediments collected from Browns Island in the lower Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, California, are used to reconstruct environmental variability over the past 6.8 ka. Calibrated radiocarbon dates provide chronostratigraphic control. Trace metal analyses, grain-size variability, organic content, and macrofossils are used to define short- and long-term variations in relative salinity and inundation frequency. Aggradation began in subtidal fresh water conditions about 6.8 ka. Subtidal aggradation of clayey silts continued until about 6.3 ka, when conditions shifted toward a lower intertidal brackish marsh environment. By 5.1 ka, a brackish marsh plain had evolved, with surface water freshening after 4.1 ka. Conditions returned to brackish similar to the present after 2.3 ka.

A late-Holocene pollen record from Lower Pahrangat Lake, southern Nevada, USA: high resolution paleoclimatic records and analysis of environmental responses to climate change

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): High resolution paleobotanical records provide sufficient detail to correlate events regionally. Once correlated events can be examined in tandem to determine the underlying inputs that fashioned them. Several localities in the Great Basin have paleobotanical records of sufficient detail to generate regional reconstructions of vegetation changes for the last 2 ka and provide conclusions as to the climates that caused them.

Environmental inventory and the distribution of inorganic nutrients in a tropical estuary of the south-west coast of India

Dissolved nutrients (PO sub(4)-P, NO sub(3)-N, NO sub(2)-N and SiO sub(4)-Si) estimated in the surface and bottom waters of five selected stations of the Paravur Lake, Kerala, India, during February 1987 to January 1988 revealed distinct seasonal variations. Rainfall and land drainage play significant roles in the nutrient economy, particularly NO sub(3)-N and SiO sub(4)-Si, of this water body. Abnormally high values of PO sub(4)-P indicated extremely polluted condition at the wetting zone of the lake during the premonsoon season. SiO sub(4)-Si showed significant negative relationship with salinity.