A meta-analytic approach to quantifying scientific uncertainty in stock assessments

Quantifying scientific uncertainty when setting total allowable catch limits for fish stocks is a major challenge, but it is a requirement in the United States since changes to national fisheries legislation. Multiple sources of error are readily identifiable, including estimation error, model specification error, forecast error, and errors associated with the definition and estimation of reference points. Our focus here, however, is to quantify the influence of estimation error and model specification error on assessment outcomes. These are fundamental sources of uncertainty in developing scientific advice concerning appropriate catch levels and although a study of these two factors may not be inclusive, it is feasible with available information. For data-rich stock assessments conducted on the U.S. west coast we report approximate coefficients of variation in terminal biomass estimates from assessments based on inversion of the assessment of the model’s Hessian matrix (i.e., the asymptotic standard error). To summarize variation “among” stock assessments, as a proxy for model specification error, we characterize variation among multiple historical assessments of the same stock. Results indicate that for 17 groundfish and coastal pelagic species, the mean coefficient of variation of terminal biomass is 18%. In contrast, the coefficient of variation ascribable to model specification error (i.e., pooled among-assessment variation) is 37%. We show that if a precautionary probability of overfishing equal to 0.40 is adopted by managers, and only model specification error is considered, a 9% reduction in the overfishing catch level is indicated.

Observer-reported skate bycatch in the commercial groundfish fisheries of Alaska

We analyzed skate catch data collected by observers in the North Pacific Groundfish Observer Program (NPGOP) from 1998 through 2008 to document recent changes in the identification of skates by observers and to examine the species composition of observed skate catch in Alaska’s groundfish fisheries as well as recent trends in skate retention by commercial fishermen. Historically, almost all skate bycatch has been reported by NPGOP observers as “skate unidentified.” However, since 2004 observers have been trained to identify skates to the genus and species level. In 2008 over 95% of all skates were identified at least to the genus level, and over 50% were identified to species. The most common species of skates identified by observers in groundfish fisheries are Bathyraja parmifera (Alaska skate), Raja binoculata (big skate), and Bathyraja aleutica (Aleutian skate). Species composition of reported skate catch generally reflects recent survey-derived biomass estimates, with B. parmifera dominating the catches in the Bering Sea and, to a lesser extent, in the Aleutian Islands region, and species of the genus Raja dominating catches in the Gulf of Alaska. A relatively high percentage of the skate catch on longline vessels is still reported at the family or genus level because of difficulties in the identification of skates not brought onboard the vessel. For the larger skate species, the proportion retained for processing has increased in recent years as the market price for skate product has increased. Although observed skate catch does not give a complete account of skate bycatch in the fisheries of the region, observer data provide critical information for the appropriate management of skate populations in Alaska.

Estimation of deepwater snapper yield from Tongan seamounts

The data from two years' monitoring of the Tongan seamount fishery were analyzed the two main export species are Pristipomoides filamentosus and Etelis coruscans. K.R. Allen's model was used to obtain estimates of catchability and recruitment and of a surplus production of 737 kg per nautical mile (nm) of 200 m contour. This compared reasonably well to total landings. Using this estimate, the annual surplus production for Tonga's 294 nm of 200 m contour is 217 t. The level of fishing mortality was found to be 0.3/year.

Offshore Migratory Corridors and Aerial Photogrammetric Body Length Comparisons of Southbound Gray Whales, Eschrichtius robustus, in the Southern California Bight, 1988–1990

Through most of their annual migration, gray whales, Eschrichtius robustus, remain within 10 km of shore, but in the Southern California Bight many individuals migrate much farther from shore. This paper summarizes aerial survey and photogrammetric efforts to determine body lengths and temporal and spatial distributions of migratory gray whales in the southern portion of the Southern California Bight. Aerial surveys were flown along 13 east–west transects between lat. 32°35′N and 33°30′N during the southbound gray whale migratory seasons of 1988–90 in the Southern California Bight. Photogrammetry was used to obtain body length estimates of animals during some of the surveys. A total of 1,878 whales in 675 groups were sighted along 25,440 km of transect distance flown and 217 body lengths were measured. Using position and heading data, three major migratory pathways or corridors in the southern portion of the bight are defined. Those migrating offshore were split almost evenly between two corridors along the west sides of Santa Catalina and San Clemente Islands. These corridors converge on the mainland coast between San Diego and the United States–Mexico border. No whales larger than 11.5 m were photographed within 30 km of the mainland coast, suggesting that smaller, and presumably younger, whales use the coastal migratory corridor through the California Bight.

A Review of World Salmon Culture

World farmed salmon production reached 145,000 metric tons (t) in 1988 and an estimated 217,000 t in 1989. The latter figure is comparable to the U. S. annual salmon catch (about 250,000 t) and is approaching one-third the size of the world wild salmon catch (about 700,000 t). The rapid expansion of farmed salmon supplies in the late 1980's has led to sharp price decreases. Lower prices have forced some farmers out of business, but at the same time, a large number of farmers first began harvesting salmon on a commercial scale as the 1980's ended. Farmed salmon production could exceed 270,000 t in 1990.

Shifts in the estuarine demersal fish community after a fishery closure in Puget Sound, Washington

Puget Sound is one of the largest and most ecologically significant estuaries in the United States, but the status and trends of many of its biological components are not well known. We analyzed a 21-year time series of data from standardized bottom trawl sampling at a single study area to provide the first assessment of population trends of Puget Sound groundfishes after the closure of bottom trawl fisheries. The expected increase in abundance was observed for only 3 of 14 species after this closure, and catch rates of most (10) of the abundant species declined through time. Many of these changes were stepwise (abrupt) rather than gradual, and many stocks exhibited changes in catch rate during the 3-year period from 1997 through 2000. No detectable change was recorded for either temperature or surface salinity over the entire sampling period. The abrupt density reductions that were observed likely do not reflect changes in demographic rates but may instead represent distributional shifts within Puget Sound.

Seascape ecology of coastal biogenic habitats: advances, gaps, and challenges

We review the progress made in the emerging field of coastal seascape ecology, i.e. the application of landscape ecology concepts and techniques to the coastal marine environment. Since the early 1990s, the landscape ecology approach has been applied in several coastal subtidal and intertidal biogenic habitats across a range of spatial scales. Emerging evidence indicates that animals in these seascapes respond to the structure of patches and patch mosaics in different ways and at different spatial scales, yet we still know very little about the ecological significance of these relationships and the consequences of change in seascape patterning for ecosystem functioning and overall biodiversity. Ecological interactions that occur within patches and among different types of patches (or seascapes) are likely to be critically important in maintaining primary and secondary production, trophic transfer, biodiversity, coastal protection, and supporting a wealth of ecosystem goods and services. We review faunal responses to patch and seascape structure, including effects of fragmentation on 5 focal habitats: seagrass meadows, salt marshes, coral reefs, mangrove forests, and oyster reefs. Extrapolating and generalizing spatial relationships between ecological patterns and processes across scales remains a significant challenge, and we show that there are major gaps in our understanding of these relationships. Filling these gaps will be crucial for managing and responding to an inevitably changing coastal environment. We show that critical ecological thresholds exist in the structural patterning of biogenic ecosystems that, when exceeded, cause abrupt shifts in the distribution and abundance of organisms. A better understanding of faunal–seascape relationships, including the identifications of threshold effects, is urgently needed to support the development of more effective and holistic management actions in restoration, site prioritization, and forecasting the impacts of environmental change.

Abundance of cetatceans in the southern U.S. North Atlantic Ocean during summer 1998

The U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act requires that the abundance of marine mammals in U.S. waters be assessed. Because this requirement had not been met for a large portion of the North Atlantic Ocean (U.S. waters south of Maryland), a ship-based, line-transect survey was conducted with a 68 m research ship between Maryland (38.00°N) and central Florida (28.00°N) from the 10-m isobath to the boundary of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone. The study area (573,000 km2) was surveyed between 8 July and 17 August 1998. Minimum abundance estimates were based on 4163 km of effort and 217 sightings of at least 13 cetacean species and other taxonomic categories. The most commonly sighted species (number of groups) were bottlenose dolphins, Tursiops truncatus (38); sperm whales, Physeter macrocephalus (29); Atlantic spotted dolphins, Stenella frontalis (28); and Risso’s dolphins, Grampus griseus (22). The most abundant species (abundance; coeffi cient of variation) were Atlantic spotted dolphins (14,438; 0.63); bottlenose dolphins (13,085; 0.40); pantropical spotted dolphins, S. attenuate (12,747; 0.56); striped dolphins, S. coeruleoalba (10,225; 0.91); and Risso’s dolphins (9533; 0.50). The abundance estimate for the Clymene dolphin, S. clymene (6086; 0.93), is the first for the U.S. Atlantic Ocean. Sperm whales were the most abundant large whale (1181; 0.51). Abundances for other species or taxonomic categories ranged from 20 to 5109. There were an estimated 77,139 (0.23) cetaceans in the study area. Bottlenose dolphins and Atlantic spotted dolphins were encountered primarily in continental shelf (<200 m) and continental slope waters (200−2000 m). All other species were generally sighted in oceanic waters (>200 m). The distribution of some species varied north to south. Striped dolphins, Clymene dolphins, and sperm whales were sighted primarily in the northern part of the study area; whereas pantropical spotted dolphins were sighted primarily in the southern portion.

Age and growth of the bastard grunt (Pomadasys incisus: Haemulidae) inhabiting the Canarian archipelago, Northwest Africa

The bastard grunt (Pomadasys incisus) is one of the most abundant coastal demersal fishes inhabiting the Canary Islands. Age and growth were studied from samples collected between October 2000 and September 2001. Growth analysis revealed that this species is a fast growing and moderately short-lived species (ages up to seven years recorded). Length-at-age was described by the von Bertalanffy growth model (L∞=309.58 mm; k=0.220/year; t0=–1.865 year), the Schnute growth model (y1=126.66 mm; y2=293.50 mm; a=–0.426; b= 5.963), and the seasonalized von Bertalanffy growth model (L∞=309.93 mm; k=0.218/ year; t0= –1.896 year; C=0.555; ts=0.652). Individuals grow quickly in their first year, attaining approximately 60% of their maximum length; after the first year, their growth rate drops rapidly as energy is probably diverted to reproduction. The parameters of the von Bertalanffy weight growth curve were W∞=788.22 mm; k=0.1567/year; t0= –1.984 year. Fish total length and otolith radius were closely correlated, r2=0.912. A power relationship was estimated between the total length and the otolith radius (a=49.93; ν=0.851). A year’s growth was represented by an opaque and hyaline (translucent) zone—an annulus. Backcalculated lengths were similar to those predicted by the growth models. Growth parameters estimated from the backcalculated sizes at age were L∞=315.23 mm; k=0.217/year; and t0= –1.73 year.